000
FXUS63 KMKX 222001
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
301 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO PLOD EVER SO SLOWLY EAST FROM NRN IA. LOW
LEVEL MOIST AXIS...DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 60S...EXTENDS FROM ERN IL
INTO SC WI PER ISODROSOTHERM ANALYSIS. LOW LEVEL DRY AIR OOZING IN
FROM ERN IA AND SW WI. BEST 700-300 MILLIBAR Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
THIS EVENING THEN A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THAT SIGNAL. AS 500 LOW
CENTER OPENS UP AND AXIS OF SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH AROUND 6-9Z
WILL KEEP THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS IN PLACE...THOUGH BASED ON RADAR
TRENDS...APPEARS A BREAK FOR A TIME THIS EVENING UNTIL THE INFLUENCE
OF THE LOW DRAWS CLOSER. HOWEVER WITH A WEDGE OF CLEARING MAY ALLOW
FOR A FEW MORE SHRA/ISOLD TSRA TO POP BEFORE THEN. 850 COLD
ADVECTION INCREASES AFTER 6Z.

THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
CONSENSUS OF PROGS IS TO LINGER SOME LIGHT QPF IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA
DURING THE MORNING. MAIN STORY WILL BE MUCH COOLER AND WINDY
CONDITIONS. 850 TEMPERATURES DROP TO 1-3C WITH THE PERSISTENT COLD
ADVECTION REGIME. 925 TEMPS RANGE FROM 6-9C SO MANY 50S EXPECTED
WITH BETTER SHOT AT 60 OR LOW 60S IN THE WESTERN CWA.

.THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA. TEMPS THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 30S MOST PLACES WITH THE COLDEST READINGS
ALONG THE KETTLE MORAINE SPINE IN SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. WE COULD
SEE SOME PATCHY FROST IN THAT AREA.

FRIDAY LOOKS SUNNY WITH TEMPS JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. AREAS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BE MUCH COOLER DUE TO THE
EXPECTED EASTERLY WIND.

.FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORCAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

THE RIDGE BEGINS TO DRIFT EAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT. A SURGE OF WARM
ADVECTION WILL TRY TO BRING IN SOME THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WEST
AFTER MIDNIGHT CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. THE NAM IS VERY
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS...BOTH IN QPF AND EASTWARD EXTENT...WHILE
THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE SLOWER AND ALSO KEEPING IT FARTHER WEST.
THE CONSENSUS APPROACH LOOKS REASONABLE AND ONLY BRINGS A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA...MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF MADISON. AS THE ASSOCIATED
LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS ON SATURDAY...THIS SHOULD HELP TO DIMINISH
ANY LINGERING PRECIP BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW TO MEDIUM.

WE WILL BE IN A RATHER STEADY...UNCHANGING PATTERN DURING THIS
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE HOLDING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHILE
LOW PRESSURE HOLDS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ALOFT...THE RIGHT
REAR QUADRANT OF THE UPPER JET WILL BE HOVERING OVER THE
AREA...PROVIDING A RATHER SUSTAINED AREA OF UPPER DIVERGENCE/UVV
OVER THE CWA. AT THE SAME TIME...IN THE LOWER LEVELS...THE LOW
LEVEL JET WILL BE PERSISTENT...STRETCHING FROM KANSAS...MISSOURI
INTO IOWA. WE COULD SEE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RIDING SHOWERS AND
STORMS ROLL IN FROM THE NORTHWEST FROM TIME TO TIME...MAINLY
ACROSS THE SW FORECAST AREA. WHILE OUR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA
COULD REMAIN DRY...PROTECTED FROM THE DRIER AIRMASS WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM. IT IS DIFFICULT AT THIS POINT TO KNOW JUST WHERE
THIS PATTERN WILL LOCK IN. DRIER AND COOLER AIR FROM THE EAST
WILL BE COMPETING WITH MORE MOIST AIR TRYING TO PUSH IN FROM THE
WEST. THIS EXPLAINS THE RATHER EXTENDED PERIOD OF CHCY RAIN IN THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...AS UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND PROGRESSES A BIT
QUICKER EASTWARD FROM IOWA...MVFR CEILINGS WILL BECOME PREVALENT.
SOME IFR CEILINGS TOO ARE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY WITH ANY SHRA. GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL START INCREASING AFTER 6Z. THESE GUSTY WINDS
WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THURSDAY ESPECIALLY AT THE EASTERN TAF
SITES.

&&

.MARINE...AS SURFACE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH COLD ADVECTION. DECENT FETCH WILL
LEAD TO SOME HIGH WAVE ACTION. CLOSE CALL ON THE GALE POTENTIAL
THURSDAY BUT FOR NOW ELECTED TO KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN
PLACE.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM THURSDAY TO 4 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
     LMZ644>646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM THURSDAY TO 1 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
     LMZ643.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DAVIS