Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 252007
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
307 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

.SHORT TERM...

Tonight and Monday...Forecast confidence is high:

The main push of isolated to scattered showers will push through
late afternoon into early this evening. Will then see decreasing
clouds late evening and overnight.

A similar day is expected Monday once again. A shortwave will
bring a chance for mainly afternoon showers. The better moisture
and forcing will be across the northeast half of the forecast
area. Left a slight chance of thunder going given some marginal
instability. Should see clouds increase mid-morning into the
afternoon, especially in the northeast. Southwest areas may end up
with a fair amount of sunshine tomorrow. High temps will remain
well below normal values for late June. It will be breezy again
too, adding to the feel of cooler conditions.

Monday night through Thursday...Forecast confidence medium.

A shortwave trough will have exited the area by Mon eve with
showers mostly ended. High pressure will slide from IA to IL/IN
through the night. A continued cool airmass and light winds will
allow temps to fall into the upper 40s for early Tue AM. The high
pressure area will then move across the Ohio River Valley on Tue
with swly winds and warm advection over WI. Mo sunny skies are
expected with high temps in the middle 70s with an afternoon lake
breeze remaining close to the lake.

The warm advection will continue Tue nt-Wed with moisture
transport beginning Wed as a shortwave trough approaches and
passes through the area. It appears any appreciable CAPE will
build on the back side of the main precip. area on Wed-Wed eve.
Thus best chances for thunder will be late afternoon and eve but
possibly only isold or sct coverage. A weak fropa will slowly
occur Wed nt into Thu AM as low pressure moves from nrn WI through
the nrn Great Lakes. The front will stall across IA and IL for Thu
with seasonal temps and humidity on Thu.


.LONG TERM...Friday through Sunday...Forecast confidence medium.

A wave of low pressure will track from the IA/MO border to far srn
Lake MI for Fri. Thus chances of tstorms, higher near the IL
border, for this period. A brief period of nwly winds and cooling
may occur behind this system for Sat followed by High pressure for
Sun.


&&

.AVIATION(18Z TAFS)...

VFR conditions are expected to prevail tonight and tomorrow,
though could see a few MVFR spots in the north briefly as clouds
return Monday.

Expect isolated to scattered showers by late this afternoon,
winding down early evening. Tomorrow will be similar, with more
diurnal showers and cumulus likely. Isolated thunder is also
possible this afternoon and again Monday afternoon.


&&

.MARINE...

Northwest winds are expected to gust to 25 knots Monday, so have
decided to issue a Small Craft Advisory from 9 am to 7 pm.
Lighter winds Tuesday will be followed by possible advisory
conditions again on Wednesday.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 7 PM CDT Monday for LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

Tonight/Monday and Aviation/Marine...DDV
Monday Night through Sunday...Gehring


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