Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 221934
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
234 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight and Sunday...Forecast confidence is medium to high:

Clouds are finally starting to scatter this afternoon, allowing
more sunshine into the area. This should help increase instability
ahead of an approaching wave and associated front. Storms are
expected to develop along and ahead of the approaching system
later this evening, moving into the northwest around 9-11 pm per
latest mesoscale models. An area of isolated to scattered storms
is then expected to progress east to southeast across the forecast
area into the nighttime hours. Could see a strong to severe storm
or two, especially earlier while greater instability lingers.

The deepest moisture will be pushed eastward by Sunday morning,
but should be enough moisture hanging around for a few
showers/storms by Sunday afternoon as a weak wave pushes though.
Timing of wave and shower/storm initiation puts the best chance
for any activity across the eastern half of the forecast area.

Should be enough sunshine Sunday to push highs into the low 80s
most places.

Sunday night through Tuesday...Forecast confidence is high.

High pressure will be moving in, providing a much quieter period
of weather along with cooler and drier temperatures. Monday is the
pick day of the week with highs in the 70s and dew points in the
upper 50s to lower 60s. Temps begin to climb by Tuesday as the
ridge slides off to the east and we get into a return southerly
flow.

Wednesday and Wednesday night...Forecast confidence is medium.

The GFS/ECMWF/Canadian all bring a frontal boundary south through
Wisconsin on Wednesday, possibly initiating a round of showers
and storms mainly Wed afternoon through Wednesday night. The
Canadian model brings a secondary low east along the front, far
enough north to bring another round of storms in on Thursday. That
kind of detail is dubious this far out.

Thursday through Saturday...Forecast confidence is medium.

High pressure returns and looks to provide at least another few
days of dry weather and seasonable temperatures late next week.

&&

.AVIATION(18Z TAFS)...

Finally seeing considerable scattering of the stratus deck this
afternoon as well as a slow raising of the cloud bases. Many
places should return to VFR by late afternoon.

Attention then turns to isolated to scattered storms possible late
evening into tonight as a weak wave and associated front move
through. Best chance will arrive 02Z-04Z in the northwest,
exiting the southeast by around 8-10Z.

Should be a good amount of sunshine Sunday morning, with an
increase in mainly VFR cumulus late morning into the afternoon.
Could see a couple storms east of Madison during the afternoon
hours.

&&

.MARINE...

Winds and waves are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory
levels this weekend into early next week. Patchy fog is possible
at times this weekend while the higher dewpoints stick around.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

Tonight/Sunday and Aviation/Marine...DDV
Sunday Night through Saturday...Davis



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