Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 230021
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
621 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

.UPDATE...

The atmosphere remains dry below about 5-7kft, so
it will be difficult for most of the associated precip on radar
to reach the ground tonight. However we could see a brief period
of flurries that do, but no accumulation is expected. The 4 miles
and haze when the highest reflectivity passed over Boscobel KOVS
may mean some very light snow did reach the ground.

&&

.AVIATION(00Z TAFS)...

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. A trough will
approach from the west tonight, pushing across southern Wisconsin
in the morning. The atmosphere remains dry below about 5-7kft, so
it will be difficult for most of the associated precip on radar
to reach the ground tonight. However we could see a brief period
of flurries that do, but no accumulation is expected. The 4 miles
and haze when the highest reflectivity passed over Boscobel KOVS at
2353Z may mean some very light snow did reach the ground. We
should see the threat of any precip push east by about 10z
Thursday with clearing skies rolling in after 12z Thu. Winds will
veer from southwest to west Thursday morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 236 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017)

DISCUSSION...

Tonight and Thursday...Forecast confidence is high.

A fast moving short wave with a weak surface trough reflection
will push through the western Great Lakes tonight into early
Thursday morning. The warm air advection ahead of it is quite
robust into the evening upstream, but weakens as it drifts into
Wisconsin. Cross-sections show the lowest 7kft is quite dry during
the best forcing, with saturation lowering to a min of about 5kft
toward sunrise. By then, the forcing is off to the east. The
previous forecast limited any potential for a dusting of light
snow to our far northern forecast area, on the order of a 15-20
percent chance...pretty low. We could see some flurries reach to
Madison and Milwaukee, but this would be pretty light stuff and no
accumulation is expected.

Clouds will clear quickly from west to east Thursday morning with
highs sticking close to normal for this time of year.

Friday through Monday...Forecast confidence is high.

Another short wave with a stronger surface trough will push
through the Great Lakes on Friday with a cold front sliding east
during the evening. We see a strong surge of warm air into
southern Wisconsin ahead of the front on Friday and this should
push temps into the 50s with a 60 here and there not out of the
question, especially west of Madison. We should get into some
deeper mixing with the warm air and a mix of clouds and sun, thus
we tap into some rather strong winds aloft. So, look for a
seasonably mild and windy day. The better forcing stays well to
the north of southern Wisconsin, so no precip is expected with the
trough/cold frontal passage.

High pressure settles in for the rest of the weekend with
temperatures falling back to more normal levels for Saturday and
Sunday. It looks dry with abundant sunshine.

Another trough will approach on Monday. Again, the surge of warm
air ahead of the trough will push temps above normal for early in
the week. Monday still looks dry with the trough still well to our
west.

Tuesday...Forecast confidence is medium.

A cold front will push through the area Monday night or Tuesday,
depending on the model. At this point, it`s too early for
confidence on timing/pattern details, but most solutions don`t
show much in the way of precip with this one due to the overall
dry atmosphere. It looks on the warmer side, so rain is the bigger
threat vs snow.

AVIATION(21Z TAFS)...

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. A trough will
approach from the west tonight, pushing across southern Wisconsin
in the morning. The atmosphere remains dry below about 5-7kft, so
it will be difficult for any associated precip to reach the ground
tonight. We could see a few flurries at Milwaukee and Madison, but
no accumulation is expected. We should see the threat of any
precip push east by about 10z Thursday with clearing skies rolling
in after 12z Thu. Winds will veer from southwest to west Thursday
morning.

MARINE...

A deep through of low pressure will approach the area on Friday
with strong southerly winds kicking in by sunrise on Friday and
peaking during the afternoon. Winds will decrease as the trough
moves overhead, but pick up again out of the west northwest by
Friday evening and remain elevated through Saturday. A small craft
advisory will likely be needed from early Friday morning through
the afternoon on Saturday.

Another small craft advisory may be needed early next week with
the arrival of another trough of low pressure.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

Update...Hentz
Tonight/Thursday and Aviation/Marine...Davis
Thursday Night through Wednesday...Davis



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