Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 011442 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
942 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...

PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TODAY. MODELS STILL QUITE WARM WITH
925 MB TEMPS...SO FORECAST HIGHS LOOK REASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

COULD SEE SOME AREAS OF FOG AGAIN TONIGHT...THOUGH MAYBE NOT AS
WIDESPREAD GIVEN A LITTLE MORE WIND/MIXING IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

WILL BE EXTENDING THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN THE SOUTHERN THREE
MARINE ZONES UNTIL 1 PM TODAY GIVEN CURRENT WEBCAMS AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY. SHOULD BE ENOUGH MIXING BY EARLY AFTERNOON FOR IMPROVED
CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL REMAIN ONSHORE MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE DAY
FROM PORT WASHINGTON TO SHEBOYGAN...SO DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH
TONIGHT FOR THIS ZONE STILL LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

ANY MORNING FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY THIS MORNING.  THE 925MB TEMPS
BUILD QUICKLY DURING THE DAY...MAXING OUT AROUND 25-26C BY LATE
AFTERNOON. FULL SUN AND FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES THROUGH 800MB
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH THE UPPER 80S MOST PLACES AND EVEN SOME
LOWER 90S POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS.  THE NAM IS OVERDOING DEW POINTS
AND THEREFORE HAS EXCESSIVE CAPE VALUES.  DEW POINTS COULD MIX OUT
INTO THE MID 60S...INSTEAD OF MID 70S THE NAM SUGGESTS.  OTHER THAN
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...THE COLUMN IS DRY...SO DON/T EXPECT AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS THIS PERIOD. A MILD NIGHT IS IN STORE WITH
SOME PATCHY FOG AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

AN EXTENSIVE RIDGE WILL SET UP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
COUNTRY MID WEEK... INCLUDING THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A SHORTWAVE
BEING ADVERTISED BY MOST OF THE MODELS IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRACK
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE THROUGH SOUTHERN MN
TONIGHT AND THROUGH WI WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

THE ATMOSPHERE IN SOUTHERN WI WILL BE PRIMED WITH WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS AND THEREFORE MODERATE INSTABILITY. THE SHORTWAVE WILL
HELP TO STEEPEN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THUS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED DUE TO A LACK OF SHEAR AND A STRONG AREA OF SURFACE
CONVERGENCE.

THE SHORTWAVE FORCING SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY THU AFTERNOON...
BUT MODELS ARE FOCUSING ON SOME LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE
THUNDERSTORMS. THESE USUALLY DO NOT PAN OUT... BUT KEPT THE SLIGHT
CHANCE IN THERE TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT AND ANY SHORTWAVE TIMING CHANGES.

925MB TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE 25-26C RANGE... BUT CLOUDS
WILL BE A FACTOR IN THE MAX TEMPS. HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 80S.

LONG TERM...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY LATE IN THE WEEK AND REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER SOUTHERN WI FOR LABOR DAY WEEKEND. THIS MEANS A WARM
WEEKEND WITH DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR US. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY
LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH WITH A LAKE BREEZE COMPONENT EACH AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL EJECT OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
TEMPORARILY BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL BRING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BACK TO
SOUTHERN WI.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...MORNING IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN SOME
AREAS DUE TO A MOSTLY SHALLOW FOG...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
THIS SHOULD IMPROVE QUICKLY BY 13Z THIS MORNING. THEN VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...UNTIL MORE PATCHY FOG
THREATENS LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD...TOWARD 10-13Z WED. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE 10KTS OR LESS TODAY.

MARINE...

DENSE FOG IS THE MAIN CONCERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND CONFIDENCE
IN IT/S BEHAVIOR ISN/T VERY HIGH.  A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL
CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH 10 AM...THEN
JUST FOR AREAS NORTH OF PORT WASHINGTON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
AN UPWELLING EVENT LAST WEEK HAS BROUGHT COOL WATERS TO THE
NEARSHORE MARINE ZONES AND THIS IS COMBINING WITH THE HIGH DEW
POINTS TO PRODUCE FOG.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ644>646.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ643.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DDV
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MRC



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