Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 251544
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1044 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...VFR SKC THIS PERIOD. GUSTY WNW WINDS WILL
EASE THIS EVENING AS PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS AND DECENT
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS NUDGES INTO
WRN WI BY 12Z SUNDAY AND SHIFTS INTO LWR MI BY 00Z MONDAY. PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH LLJ/MOIST ADVECTION STILL LOOKS TO BE HOLDING OFF
UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT.

PC

&&

.MARINE...NO CHANGES TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. WNW WINDS RAMPING UP
WITH GUSTS REACHING CRITERIA NEAR KSBM ALREADY. HIGHER WAVES
TOWARDS OPEN WATER WITH THE OFFSHORE COMPONENT PREVAILING.

PC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

AREA OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS AND SOME FOG IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
AT THIS TIME...AHEAD OF DRIER AIR MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM MINNESOTA.
THESE LOW STRATUS CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD MIX OUT GRADUALLY FROM WEST
TO EAST BY THE MID MORNING HOURS AT THE LATEST...AS THE DRIER AIR
MOVES INTO THE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL HELP BRING QUIET
WEATHER TO THE AREA TODAY. A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
DEVELOP BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE OVER JAMES BAY
CANADA...RESULTING IN BREEZY WEST NORTHWEST WINDS. MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED.

HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE MID 60S IN MOST AREAS...PER 925 MB
TEMPERATURE FIELDS IN MODELS. A WARM AND NICE DAY OVERALL FOR LATE
OCTOBER.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
EASTERN IOWA TONIGHT...HELPING THE WINDS WEAKEN ACROSS THE AREA.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND THE LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW LOWS TO FALL
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN MOST AREAS...THOUGH COULD GET A BIT
COLDER IN LOW LYING AREAS.

SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD SUNDAY MORNING...WITH PLEASANT
WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

STRONG TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FORECAST
AREA...WHERE POPS ARE IN THE LIKELY RANGE. SHOULD SEE TEMPS DIP A
BIT IN THE EVENING...WITH SLOWLY WARMING CONDITIONS THEN LIKELY
LATER IN THE NIGHT.

SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE THE LOW ARE EXPECTED TO BRING EVEN
MILDER TEMPS MONDAY...WITH A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE AT SEEING 70 FOR
THE FIRST TIME SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE MONTH IF THE CURRENT
MODEL TIMING HOLDS.

KEPT SOME POPS DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE AREA. CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS CONTINUES MONDAY
NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. LINGERED SOME POPS TUESDAY
MORNING PER THE SLOWER ECMWF...BUT STILL THINK TUESDAY MAY BE
MAINLY DRY BASED ON THE BULK OF OTHER MODELS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

IT LOOKS DRY WEDNESDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH. MORE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH. MUCH COOLER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND
THE SHORTWAVE ON FRIDAY...WITH CURRENT MODELS INDICATING A PRETTY
CHILLY HALLOWEEN.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

LOW STRATUS CLOUDS WITH CEILINGS DOWN TO AROUND ALTERNATE MINIMUMS
WILL GRADUALLY MIX OUT OR MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY MID MORNING AT THE
LATEST. MVFR FOG WILL LINGER AT TIMES AS WELL.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION.
BREEZY WEST NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...WITH SOME GUSTS IN
THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT...AS THE
LOW MOVES CLOSER.

MARINE...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM 15Z UNTIL 22Z TODAY. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND
LOW PRESSURE OVER JAMES BAY CANADA. BREEZY WEST NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
RESULT...WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. WAVES WILL REMAIN IN THE 1 TO
3 FOOT RANGE...HIGHER OVER THE OPEN WATERS GIVEN THE OFFSHORE FLOW.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY WILL BE SEEN AGAIN TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD
FRONT.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LMZ643>646.

&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DDV



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