Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 170341
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
941 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED AM BUT
SUBSIDENCE WILL STRENGTHEN WED AFTERNOON AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE
UPPER LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NW WI. EXPECT PARTLY
CLOUDY SKY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
INTO WED EVENING.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. CONFIDENCE HIGH

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING DUE TO TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND DEPARTING SURFACE LOW. SPRINKLES
OR FLURRIES MAY LINGER THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON IN THE FAR EAST
BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION.

THE NEXT UPPER LOW WITH A SHEARED VORT MAX MOVES INTO N WI THIS
EVENING AND SWINGS DOWN THROUGH SOUTHERN WI ON WED. DRIER MID LEVEL
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE.
SOUNDINGS AND MODEL RH FIELDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING A
THIN SATURATED LAYER AROUND 900MB/3000FT ON WED. HENCE CLOUDS SHOULD
STICK AROUND BUT FAR SOUTHERN WI MAY SEE SOME SUN IN THE AFTERNOON.
WITH COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING EXPECT MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

SHORT TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

BUSY UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...WITH WISCONSIN MOVING FROM THE WESTERN
EDGE OF CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW TO UNDER A WEAK 500 MB RIDGE...AS
SHEARED VORTICITY OVER THE AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD IS ABSORBED INTO
CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER THE EASTERN U.S. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
REGION THURSDAY...BUT NOT BEFORE EASTERN WI IS BRUSHED BY WEAK
SURFACE TO MID-LEVEL TROUGH...A LOWER REFLECTION OF THE SHEARED
TROUGH.

NAM ALONE IN TRYING TO GENERATE SOME SPOTTY LIGHT QPF WITH SOME WEAK
SURFACE TO 850 MB FORCING THURSDAY...BUT SOUNDINGS INDICATE NOTHING
MORE THAN FLURRIES SO NO POP.

COLD AIR ADVECTION BRINGS LOW TEMPS IN THE TEENS AWAY FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN...WITH HIGHS JUST BELOW NORMAL IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND
30.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE SW U.S. LIFTS NE OVERNIGHT...
REACHING MISSOURI BY 12Z THURSDAY AND CROSSING ILLINOIS DURING THE
DAY. MODELS AGREE THAT PCPN WILL GET NO CLOSER THAN A FEW COUNTIES
SOUTH OF IL/WI BORDER SO WILL LEAVE DRY.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

ONE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES JUST NORTH OF THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER
WITH ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE SW U.S. INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE KEEPING REGION DRY. NOT MUCH CHANGE TO 925
MB TEMPS SO LOWS AND HIGHS SIMILAR OR A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM

HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS QUIET WEATHER TO THE REGION. WAVE PASSES BY FAR
ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH TO KEEP SATURDAY DRY. RETURN FLOW AS HIGH SLIDES
EAST BRINGS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT. BLEND OF
ECMWF AND GFS HAS CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW FOR MONDAY WITH APPROACHING
LOW PRESSURE.


12Z ECMWF NOW LOOKING LIKE THE GFS FOR THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS FOR
SYSTEM MOVING IN FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. BOTH MODELS ARE
TAKING SURFACE LOW ON A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK VERSUS EARLIER ECMWF
RUNS FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS BRINGS A WARMER SOLUTION
WITH NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. THIS YIELDS MORE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO START MONDAY/MONDAY
NIGHT...GOING OVER TO ALL RAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF TUESDAY MORNING
BEFORE MIXING WITH AND CHANGING BACK TO SNOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. FORECASTING 1-2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL FROM MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH WARM PERIOD IN BETWEEN MELTING MOST OF THE
INITIAL LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL NOT EXPECT TO SEE THAT MUCH SNOW ON THE
GROUND BY THE TIME IT ENDS WEDNESDAY.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS MAY ACCOMPANY FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AT MKE BEFORE PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT OF THE
REGION BY EARLY EVENING. EXPECTING MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING CEILINGS 2000-3000 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. CLOUDS COULD START TO BECOME SCATTERED
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO WORK IN FROM THE
WEST.

MARINE...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF 23 TO 28 KNOTS. A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE AREA WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE GUSTY WINDS.
THESE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN BY MIDDLE WED MORNING. THESE WINDS
WILL GENERATE HIGH WAVES TOWARD AND OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF
LAKE MICHIGAN.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GEHRING
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...SM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...REM


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