Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 291701 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1201 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...

CANCELLED FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY ACROSS THE AREA...AS SURFACE AND
ROAD TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED SUFFICIENTLY TO END THE FREEZING
RAIN HAZARD. INITIAL LINE OF MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT HOUR.

THERE WILL BE A FEW HOURS OF QUIET WEATHER WITH LOW CLOUDS
LINGERING...BEFORE NEXT BATCH OF RAIN SHOWERS MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS SECOND BATCH
IS BEING DRIVEN BY A SECONDARY 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM SLIDING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. THIS SHOULD EXIT THE EAST BY EARLY
THIS EVENING.

TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT GUSTY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS IN THE 31 TO 37
KNOT RANGE. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE WEST IN
ITS WAKE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S
ACROSS THE AREA...WITHIN WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

MAINLY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WITH SOME BRIEF MIXED PRECIPITATION
WILL MOVE EAST OF THE EASTERN TAF SITES BY 18Z. THERE WILL BE A
PERIOD OF A FEW HOURS OF MVFR CEILINGS...BEFORE NEXT BATCH OF
RAIN SHOWERS MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA FROM MIDDLE TO LATE
AFTERNOON. MAY SEE MVFR VISIBILITIES WITH THE SHOWERS...AS MVFR
CEILINGS REMAIN.

GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL LINGER THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE
VEERING WEST BEHIND COLD FRONT BY EARLY EVENING. GUSTS TO 37 KNOTS
ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON.

WEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE WELL
TO THE SOUTH BRINGS LIGHTER WINDS. MVFR CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE AS WELL BY LATER TONIGHT. WEST WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHWEST LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON. WARM FRONT TRYING TO SET UP
ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD HELP BRING SOME CLOUDS...ALONG WITH SMALL
CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN. FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF TAFS.

&&

.MARINE...

EXTENDED GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEAR
AND OVER THE LAKE SHOWING GUSTS REMAINING UP TO 40 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON...AS TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
HIGH WAVES OF 5 TO 7 FEET ARE EXPECTED AS WELL.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED TOINGHT...AFTER THE GALE
WARNING EXPIRES...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLOWLY WEAKENS. GUSTY
WEST WINDS TO 30 KNOTS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN...WITH WAVES SLOWLY
SUBSIDING AS WELL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

A QUICK HITTING AND VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM WILL PUSH INTO THE WESTERN
FORECAST AREA RIGHT AROUND 12Z THIS MORNING.  THIS FIRST BATCH OF
PRECIP WILL BE A FAIRLY NARROW BAND...LASTING ABOUT 3 HOURS. TEMP
PROFILES INITIALLY IN THE WEST SUGGEST IT WILL BE FREEZING RAIN OR
SLEET BEFORE TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING. PAVEMENT TEMPS FROM AREA DOT
PLATFORMS SHOW MOST SITES AT OR BELOW FREEZING. SO...IT COULD GET
SLICK FOR A SHORT TIME. THE WARM ADVECTION IS IMPRESSIVE ON RAPIDLY
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING. WE ARE PUSHING CLOSE TO
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT GIVEN THE PRECIP AND CLOUDS...THAT
WOULD BE TOUGH TO ACHIEVE. BUT...WE COULD STILL SEE A FEW GUSTS
APPROACHING 40 MPH. LOOK FOR WINDS TO RAPIDLY INCREASE AFTER
SUNRISE...THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE PRECIP
SHOULD REACH MADISON BY ABOUT 9 AM AND MILWAUKEE 10 TO 11 AM THIS
MORNING.

THERE COULD BE A DRY PERIOD FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER THE FIRST BATCH OF
WARM ADVECTION/STRONG Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVES THROUGH. MORE
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SOMEWHAT STEEP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HIGHS TODAY
SHOULD HIT THE LOWER TO MID 40S. THAT FRONT SHOULD EXIT THE
SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND KENOSHA BY 00Z THIS
EVENING. DRIER AIR PUSHES IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT...SHUTTING
DOWN THE PRECIP AND BRINGING RAPIDLY CLEARING SKIES.

LONG TERM...

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY ON THE NOSE OF AN UPPER JET WILL TRACK ALONG THE
850MB BAROCLINIC ZONE THROUGH CENTRAL WI MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
THE ECMWF IS CONSISTENTLY FARTHEST SOUTH WITH THIS FEATURE COMPARED
TO OTHER MODELS AND BRINGS A SWATH OF RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE MKX
FORECAST AREA.

WINDS WILL SHIFT NNE ON TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THAT SYSTEM WHICH
WILL KEEP TEMPS COOLER NEAR THE LAKE. OTHERWISE... MAX TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE 50S BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL BUMP MAX TEMPS
INTO THE 60S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL BE OCCLUDING...
SO RAIN SHOULD BE DELAYED OVER SOUTHERN WI UNTIL WED NIGHT AND
LINGER INTO THURSDAY. THE ECMWF IS ACTUALLY MUCH SLOWER THAN THE
GFS... AND DOES NOT CLEAR PRECIP OUT OF SOUTHEAST WI UNTIL EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. THE GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY... SO A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER COULD BE POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY. THE 00Z
ECMWF CAME IN DRY ACROSS SOUTHERN WI NOW- IT USED TO BRING A BIG
SYSTEM INTO THE AREA.

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL CROSS WI ON SATURDAY WHICH COULD
BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES PER THE LATEST ECMWF... BUT I
KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH WI COULD BRING A ROUND OF RAIN TO
SOUTHERN WI ON SUNDAY... BUT THE PLACEMENT IS STILL VERY UNCERTAIN.
THE RESULTING BAROCLINIC ZONE STALLING OVER CENTRAL WI HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING RAIN TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF AND
GFS ARE BOTH SHOWING THIS AS OF THE 00Z RUN.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

LOOK FOR RAPIDLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AS
PRECIPITATION MOVES IN QUICKLY. THE PRECIP SHOULD REACH MADISON BY 9
AM AND COULD INITIALLY BE SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN. PAVEMENT
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY BELOW FREEZING...BUT TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
WARM QUICKLY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE VERY RAPIDLY AFTER 12Z THIS
MORNING. THOSE PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESPOND QUICKLY.  LOOK
FOR SOUTH WIND TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS REACHING
35KTS. THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON.

THE PRECIP SHOULD REACH THE SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN TAF SITES BY 10 TO
11 AM AND WILL BE ALL RAIN BY THAT TIME.  THE INITIAL ROUND OF
PRECIP SHOULD LAST ABOUT 3 HOURS...THEN A LULL IS EXPECTED BEFORE
MORE SHOWERS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. THOSE SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BE ALL RAIN AS HIGH TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE MID 40S. A COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...REACHING MADISON AROUND 5 PM
AND MILWAUKEE/KENOSHA BY ABOUT 7 PM.  WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.

CIGS/VSBYS WILL LIKELY DROP TO IFR LEVELS WITH THE FIRST ROUND OF
PRECIP THAT MOVES IN THIS MORNING...LIFTING TO MVFR LEVELS THIS
AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL CLEAR IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

MARINE...

A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY. LOOK FOR SOUTHERLY GALE FORCE WINDS TO DEVELOP QUICKLY
THIS MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON. WE SHOULD SEE
GALES OF 35 TO 40KTS FOR A TIME...ESPECIALLY OUT TOWARD OPEN WATER.
WINDS WILL STEADILY DIMINISH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT WITH A GALE WARNING
STARTING AT 10 AM AND CONTINUING THROUGH 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE
THE GALE WARNING EXPIRES...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST NORTHWEST IN
THE WAKE OF A PASSING COLD FRONT EARLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WOOD
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MRC



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