Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 220323 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1023 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.UPDATE...
LAST BAND OF PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SHOWERS ARE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN
AND MOVING EAST. WIND SHIFT IS JUST ENTERING NW PORTIONS OF SC WI
AND WILL DROP THROUGH SRN WI BETWEEN NOW AND 2 AM. MADE JUST A FEW
ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY...WIND AND TEMPERATURES OTHERWISE REST OF
FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

THE MVFR FOG THAT SETTLED OVER KMKE AND KENW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
AS WINDS INCREASE WITH WIND SHIFT/COLD FRONT PASSAGE. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY. AFTER A PERIOD OF GUSTS
RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL EASE OVERNIGHT...
THEN INCREASE BY MID-MORNING TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS...TURNING
NORTHEAST AT KMKE AND KENW MID-AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...

THOUGH SHORELINE OBS HAVE NOT YET GONE NORTHWEST AND ARE NOT
GUSTING TO CRITERIA...A SHIP OB NORTHEAST OF SHEBOYGAN IS
REPORTING NNW WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS...INDICATING STRONGER
WINDS MAY BE COMING DOWN THE LAKE FASTER THAN INLAND OBS ARE
SHOWING SO LET SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY START AT 10 PM CDT. NO CHANGE
TO END TIME AS LATEST NAM ON TRACK WITH DIMINISHING WINDS THROUGH
THE MORNING TUESDAY AS RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE WESTERN LAKES BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

TONIGHT AND TUESDAY..FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS WILL
EXIT THE SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA BY EARLY EVENING...WITH A FEW
SHOWERS POSSIBLY LINGERING SOUTHEAST UNTIL MID-EVENING. IT STILL
LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A GOOD PUNCH OF DRIER AIR BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COLD FRONT...SO SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO TURN MOSTLY CLEAR
FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE EVENING. SFC TEMPS WILL FALL ALL THE WAY
BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 TONIGHT AS TEMPS ALOFT CRASH.

SKIES WILL BE SUNNY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY. 925 MB TEMPS WILL
RECOVER TO 5-7C BY LATE AFTERNOON...SO HIGHS WILL BE NEAR TO JUST A
COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOOKS LIKE THE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN
ENOUGH OF A NW COMPONENT THROUGH THE MORNING FOR TEMPS TO GET INTO
THE LOW 50S NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. WINDS WILL LIKELY TURN NORTHEAST IN
THE AFTERNOON THOUGH...WITH TEMPS THEN HOLDING STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALLING NEAR THE LAKE.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS SHOULD BE LOCATED OVER THE
WESTERN SHORE OF LAKE MICHIGAN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...MOVING
QUICKLY EAST ON WEDNESDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND A
DRY AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH LOW
TEMPS IN MANY AREAS CLOSE TO OR JUST BELOW FREEZING EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

FOCUS THEN STARTS TO SHIFT WEST WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN SOUTH
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A SHOT OF STRONG 700MB WARM ADVECTION
WAY OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL ARRIVE DURING THE AFTERNOON...
BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS TO THE AREA. HOWEVER...IT
WILL BE BATTLING A PRETTY DRY LOWER LEVEL...SO JUST HOW FAR EAST
IT GETS DURING THE AFTERNOON IS QUESTIONABLE. BEST CHANCE IS WEST
OF MADISON.

A SOUTHEAST WIND ON WEDNESDAY WILL KEEP THINGS ON THE COOL
SIDE...ESPECIALLY FOR THE EASTERN COUNTIES DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
CHILLY LAKE MICHIGAN.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE A SURGE OF WARMER AIR AND MOISTURE ALOFT
PUSH INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT THE H8
BOUNDARY WILL PUSH NORTH INTO THE STATE. THE NOSE OF A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET WILL PUSH INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PRECIP CHANCES LOOK LIKELY IN THIS DECENT
ISENTROPIC ASCENT PATTERN...BUT THERE IS A LACK OF ANY CAPE SO
WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

IT LOOKS LIKE THE NAM AND THE ECMWF HAVE A BETTER DEPICTION OF THE
SURFACE LOW TRACK ON THURSDAY. THE SOUTHEAST TO EAST WINDS ON THE
NORTH SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL HELP THE COLD
AIR TO GET DEEPLY ENTRENCHED...PRETTY MUCH KILLING ANY CHANCE FOR
THE WARM FRONT...OR THE SURFACE LOW FOR THAT MATTER...MOVING
ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS A PERFECT
SCENARIO FOR THE WARM FRONT TO GET HUNG UP ACROSS NORTHERN
ILLINOIS WITH THE LOW MOVING EAST ALONG IT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THIS IS VERY CLOSE TO WHAT THE ECMWF SHOWS AND I BELIEVE WHERE
THE NAM IS HEADED.

THURSDAY IS OUR SEVERE WEATHER AWARENESS DRILL DAY AND IT LOOKS
LIKE WE/LL HAVE PLENTY OF WEATHER...BUT ANY STRONG OR SEVERE
STORMS SHOULD BE LOCATED WELL SOUTH OF WISCONSIN. WE COULD SEE
SOME ELEVATED STORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER AREA OF SHOWERS. WE
ARE STRIVING TO GO AHEAD WITH THE DRILL SO LONG AS SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT EXPECTED.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

THE LOW MOVES EAST ON FRIDAY WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SWEEPING
SOUTH INTO THE AREA BY MID AFTERNOON. WE COULD SEE A FAIRLY MILD
DAY ON FRIDAY WITH A LINGERING SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...BUT
THEN THE BOTTOM DROPS OUT FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY ONLY
GETTING INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

THE ECMWF IS COMING MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS...DEPICTING A MUCH
STRONGER HUDSON BAY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM DIPPING DEEPLY THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES AND KEEPING LOW PRESSURE WELL TO OUR SOUTH.
PREVIOUSLY...THE ECMWF WAS WEAKER WITH THE RIDGE AND WAS BRINGING
A LOW UP HERE...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SOME MEASURABLE
SNOWFALL. WILL KEEP A SMALL MENTION OF PRECIP...MIXED AT
TIMES...ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY...IT LOOKS
LIKE A COOL AND VERY DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL WIN OUT THANKS TO
THAT CANADIAN HIGH.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS WILL
EXIT THE SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA BY EARLY EVENING...WITH A FEW
SHOWERS POSSIBLY LINGERING SOUTHEAST UNTIL MID-EVENING. IT STILL
LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A GOOD PUNCH OF DRIER AIR BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COLD FRONT...SO SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO TURN MOSTLY CLEAR
FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE EVENING. SOME LOWER CIGS/VSBYS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS...BUT OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TUESDAY.

MARINE...

IT LOOKS LIKE GUSTIER WINDS WILL GET A LATER START THIS EVENING...SO
PUSHED BACK THE START OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 03Z. THIS
WILL LIKELY BE A LOW END EVENT...WITH GUSTS JUST CRACKING ADVISORY
CRITERIA AT TIMES. WAVES WILL REMAIN ON THE LOWER END DUE TO THE
OFFSHORE NATURE OF THE WINDS. LEFT THE END TIME OF THE ADVISORY AS
IS...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO EASE BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...REM
TONIGHT/TUESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...DAVIS



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