000
FXUS63 KMKX 211522
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1022 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Potential for patchy frost tonight, with more widespread
  frost/freeze concerns Tuesday and Wednesday nights.

- Elevated fire weather potential on Monday.

- Rain chances return Monday evening.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 1021 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Temperatures slowly warming across the area, with increased
mixing in the boundary layer indicated by gusty northwesterly
winds this afternoon. Dry and sunny otherwise, with some hints
of afternoon cumulus development. Continuing to monitor frost
concerns tonight, with general thinking that lows will fall into
the mid 30s rather than the lower 30s. Afternoon dewpoints will
put a cap on how low temperatures can fall, so if dewpoints fall
rapidly this afternoon, temperatures may fall more rapidly
tonight under clear skies and light winds.

MH

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 240 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Today through Monday:

Warmer temperatures are expected today with mostly sunny skies
and continued breezy west to northwest winds. Deep mixing this
afternoon will favor low dewpoints and relative humidities, but
relatively moist fuels will limit fire weather concerns for
today.

With winds turning southerly tonight and warm advection
commencing, lows don`t look to be as cold as the last few
nights, with readings closer to the mid 30s. This should
mitigate the freeze risk, but at least some patchy frost is
possible given the light winds. Will continue to evaluate the
potential for a Frost Advisory for portions of the area through
the day today.

Gusty southwest winds are expected for Monday, which will help
boost temperatures into the mid and perhaps upper 60s. Moisture
will be a bit slow to return to the area, which will allow RHs
to fall into the 25-30 percent range. Combined with the winds
this could result in elevated fire weather conditions in some
areas.

Boxell

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 240 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Monday night through Saturday:

Rain moves in Monday evening and night, ahead of an upper low
dropping through the Dakotas. This low will open up and become
more elongated on Tuesday. The first half of Tuesday may be
largely dry before additional precipitation arrives with a cold
front Tuesday evening. This looks to end by late evening, with
temperatures then falling into the upper 20s to low 30s by
Wednesday morning.

High pressure is expected to build into the area for Wednesday
and Thursday. Temperatures on Wednesday will be a little below
climo, before returning to average on Thursday. With the high
overhead, another cold night with frost/freeze potential looks
to be in store for Wednesday night/Thursday morning.

A warmer and more active pattern then looks to start taking
shape by the end of the workweek and into next weekend, as a
series of troughs dig through the Desert Southwest and Southern
Plains. Along with warmer temperatures, this favors several
chances for showers and thunderstorms for southern Wisconsin.

Boxell

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 1021 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

VFR conditions continue through today, with northwesterly winds
gusting up to 20 kt this afternoon. A few diurnal cumulus clouds
are expected across central and southeastern Wisconsin this
afternoon, but are expected to remain above 5000 ft. Overnight,
winds become light and southwesterly.

MH

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 240 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Relatively light winds are expected today and tonight as high
pressure builds across the Lake. Breezy south winds will then
develop Monday into Tuesday as low pressure approaches the
northern Great Lakes from Saskatchewan and Manitoba. A Small
Craft Advisory is likely for the nearshore waters, and winds
could approach gale force during this time over the open waters.
Winds shift to northerly Tuesday night as the low passes
eastward and a cold front moves down the lake. Northerly gales
will be possible behind the front.

Boxell

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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