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000
FXUS62 KMLB 131253
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
853 AM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION, PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 852 AM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

It`s a quiet morning across east central Florida with clear skies
and temperatures currently in the mid 50s to low 60s. High
pressure (1026mb) over the Deep South and the Gulf of Mexico
continues to influence the region. Today will be dry and cooler
with north winds around 10-15mph, as well as gusts to 20 mph
which are expected to become light and variable late this evening
and into the overnight. Afternoon highs are forecast to reach the
low to upper 70s along the coast and the upper 70s to low 80s
west of I-95. Dry conditions will continue with sunny skies and
minimum RH values expected to drop into the mid 20s to low 40s
this afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 852 AM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period with high
pressure building over the region. North winds at 10 to 14kts
with gusts to 15-22kts this afternoon are expected to become
light and variable late this evening and into the overnight with
clear skies.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 439 AM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Today... High pressure will continue to build into the southeast US
today, as drier air remains in place over the local area. North to
northeast winds around 10 mph, and up to 15 mph possible along the
coast, will veer east-northeast in the afternoon. Similar to
yesterday, while winds have decreased compared to Friday, gusts to
around 15-20mph will remain possible. Dry conditions will prevail,
with no mentionable rain chances. Forecast soundings support this
with PW values ranging from 0.3-0.5" across the area today. Sunny
skies and warm today. Afternoon highs will be in the low to mid 70s
east of I-95, and upper 70s to low 80s west of I-95.

Tonight... High pressure will remain in place, with clear skies
prevailing. East-northeast winds around 10 mph in the evening will
become light and variable overnight. Dry and cooler with no
mentionable rain chances through the period. Overnight lows be in
the mid to upper 50s east of I-95, and upper 40s to low 50s west of
I-95.

Sun...High pressure over north central FL in the morning will
scoot eastward over the Atlc during the day. A pleasant day with
less wind and continued mostly clear skies. A warming trend will
commence with max temps in the mid 80s interior and holding in the
upper 70s/near 80 coast due to the sea breeze. Min temps slightly
milder Sun night with mid to upper 50s interior and upper 50s/
lower 60s coast.

Mon-Fri...Mid-level ridge builds across the GoMex and FL peninsula
thru Wed while in the low levels, a trailing ridge axis from the
departing Atlc sfc high will be located across north central FL.
These features will block any frontal passages at least through
midweek resulting in continued dry conditions with a warming
trend. Large upper low is forecast to move SE from the Canadian
prairie to the Great Lakes and this will flatten the ridging over
the area and allow a cool front to push into the deep South
Friday. In response, the ridge axis will shift south down the
peninsula and produce a more S-SW flow and max temps warming into
the lower 90s interior Thu-Fri while a delayed sea breeze along
the coast will produce max temps in the mid to upper 80s. Model
guidance has trended slower with the next frontal passage, now
indicating Sat or even Sun. Moisture return looks paltry ahead of
this front so have kept the forecast dry thru Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 439 AM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Today-Tonight... Poor to hazardous boating conditions continue
today. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all the offshore
waters as well as the nearshore waters of the Treasure Coast until
10 AM for seas up to 7 ft and north to northwest winds around 20 KT.
Small craft should exercise caution in the nearshore waters of
Volusia and Brevard this morning for winds 15-20 KT and seas up to
6ft, as well as in all the offshore waters and near shore Treasure
coast waters once the SCA expires through the morning. North to
northwest winds around 20 KT early this morning will veer north to
northeast by mid-morning at 10-15 KT. Winds will generally be
northeast overnight with speeds around 10 KT. However winds across
the nearshore waters from Cape Canaveral northward tonight will
become light and be from the west to northwest. Seas 4-7ft will
subside to 3-6ft by the afternoon, and 2-5ft overnight.

Sun-Wed...High pressure centered near or over the area early
Sunday will continue eastward over the Atlc with a trailing ridge
axis remaining across north or central Florida through midweek.
Favorable boating conditions forecast Sunday with light and
variable winds across the northern waters before an East sea
breeze up to 10 knots develops near the coast; ENE winds 10-12
knots across the south. Winds become E-SE Mon 10 knots increasing
10-15 knots Tue then SE 10-15 knots Wed. Seas will subside Sunday
below 5 FT offshore with 2-3 FT nearshore. Seas 2-3 FT Mon, 3 FT
Tue and 3-4 FT Tue night-Wed. Dry conditions expected.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 439 AM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Another fire weather sensitive day today with near Red Flag
conditions. High pressure over the central Gulf coast this
morning will build over the area and winds will become north to
northeast today. The high center will settle over the area tonight
and Sunday resulting in noticeably lower wind speeds, turning
onshore behind a sea breeze Sunday. Dry conditions will produce a
moderate fire weather danger with minimum RH values reaching 20-25
percent over the interior both today and Sunday. A little higher
RH values will be found along the coast, around 35 percent, due to
the slight onshore wind component developing today. Slightly
higher RH values are forecast along the coast Sunday (35 to 40
percent) as flow turns more directly onshore. Winds will not be as
strong and gusty over the interior today, out of the north at
10-14 mph with a few higher gusts up to 20 mph possible. The north
to northeast winds will be breezy along the coast at 15 mph
gusting 20-25 mph. Dispersion values will be Very Good to
Excellent today and Good to Very Good Sunday.

Warm and dry conditions are forecast to continue through early
next week with critical min RH values over the interior.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  53  79  58 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  79  54  83  59 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  75  57  78  61 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  77  57  80  59 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  79  54  83  59 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  79  54  83  59 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  79  57  84  61 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  76  57  79  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for AMZ555-570-
     572-575.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Fehling
LONG TERM...Sedlock
AVIATION...Fehling