National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS62 KMLB 181943
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
343 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

...Dry and Warm Weather Continues with Near Record Highs this
Weekend...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 343 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Rest of Today-Friday...Not much to talk about other than the well
above normal temperatures. Highs are forecast to top out near 90
inland and in the L-M80s closer to the coast. The ridge axis from
high pressure over the Atlantic extends across central Florida this
afternoon, and will continue drifting towards south Florida where it
will settle tonight. Lows tonight in the 60s, except the barrier
islands who will be closer to 70. Very light background flow will
veer southwesterly to westerly by Friday morning, but for the most
part expect variable winds until the sea breeze develops Friday
afternoon, shifting winds southeasterly around 10 mph. Afternoon
highs will climb into the lower 90s inland and the M-U80s along the
coastal corridor. While very warm and well above normal, we`re still
a few degrees short of high temperature records for the day. Very
dry with relative humidity values less than 45 pct west of I-95, and
only the barrier islands at or above 60 pct.

Saturday-Sunday... High pressure over the western Atlantic
will continue to influence the region. Flow aloft will become
zonal Saturday into Sunday with a mid/upper level ridge expected
to flatten over the Southern US as a low to the north deepens
across Canada and the Upper Midwest. Offshore west to southwest
flow will continue with the east coast sea breeze developing and
pushing inland west of I-95 from the east-southeast at around
10mph Saturday. Wind fields are expected to increase from the
southwest Sunday ahead of a "cool" front which will keep the sea
breeze confined near the coast, mainly south of Cape Canaveral.
Southwest winds at 10-15mph with gusts to 25 mph are forecast.
Rain chances stay non-mentionable through the weekend.
Plenty of sunshine is forecast Saturday with partly cloudy skies
Sunday. Afternoon highs are expected to reach above normal
(~5-10 degrees) to near records with temperatures in the upper
80s to low 90s along the coast and the low to mid 90s inland west
of I-95. Low temperatures are forecast to drop into the low to
upper 60s. Patchy fog is forecast across Lake, Volusia, Seminole,
Orange, northern Osceola, and northern Brevard counties Saturday
morning, mainly between 5 and 9am where visibilities will have the
potential to drop to 1 mile or less.

Monday-Wednesday... Global models and ensemble solutions continue
to show the next "cool" front weakening as it enters central
Florida with upper level support remaining to the north over the
Carolinas. Moisture is also a limiting factor with forecast
soundings showing substantial dry air above 700mb, in addition to PWAT
values in the 1.2-1.6" range. Scattered showers and isolated
lighting storms are forecast to develop and move east-northeast
Monday morning north of I-4, before moving to the southeast into
the afternoon. Guidance keeps QPF very low through Wednesday with
only 0.05-0.25" forecast Monday. Onshore flow is expected to
develop Tuesday afternoon with the front forecast to stall over
south Florida into Tuesday. Some of the guidance suggests that
isolated showers will be possible into Tuesday afternoon across
areas south of the Orlando metro depending on whether the front
nudges back north. Isolated showers are possible Wednesday with a
shortwave trough forecast to track across central Florida
Wednesday coupled with onshore flow and PWATs in the 1-1.6" range.
Afternoon highs are forecast to reach the low 80s to low 90s each
afternoon with lows in the low 60s to near 70 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 343 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

An area of high pressure located across the western Atlantic will
continue to provide dry conditions across east central Florida
through the remainder of this week and into the weekend. Minimum RH
values will remain in the 35 to 45 percent range across the interior
west of I-95, with a few localized areas across the interior falling
to 30 to 35 percent, especially Saturday and Sunday. Along the
coast, minimum RH values will remain above critical values in the 40
to 55 percent range. Light winds will become west-southwest tomorrow
as the ridge axis shifts southward across the peninsula. The
development of the east coast sea breeze and movement inland will
cause winds to back to out of the east-southeast each afternoon.
Wind speeds are forecast to remain below 15 mph through the
remainder of the week. Afternoon smoke dispersion will be generally
good to very good on Friday, and very good to excellent Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 343 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Rest of Today-Friday...Favorable boating conditions continue. The
ridge axis of high pressure extending across the local waters and
central Florida continues shifting south, reaching South Florida
tonight where it will remain into the weekend. Winds SE 5-10 kts,
occasionally higher near the immediate coast this afternoon veer to
the WSW-SW overnight, then back to SSE-SE Friday afternoon with the
sea breeze. Seas 2-3 ft. Dry conditions continue.

Saturday-Monday... Poor boating conditions are forecast to
develop Saturday afternoon. West to southwest winds are forecast
to back south-southeast each afternoon at 12-20kts, before veering
offshore overnight. Scattered showers and isolated lightning
storms with gusty winds are forecast along and ahead of a weak
"cool front" that will move east-southeast across the waters
Monday afternoon and evening. Winds are forecast to veer northwest
behind the front into Monday night at 8-12kts. Seas are expected
to build to 1-3ft Saturday with up to 4ft Sunday into Monday,
mainly offshore, as well as over the nearshore southern Brevard
and Treasure Coast waters.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 343 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

An area of high pressure located across the western Atlantic will
continue to provide dry conditions across east central Florida
through the remainder of this week and into the weekend. Minimum RH
values will remain in the 35 to 45 percent range across the interior
west of I-95, with a few localized areas across the interior falling
to 30 to 35 percent, especially Saturday and Sunday. Along the
coast, minimum RH values will remain above critical values in the 40
to 55 percent range. Light winds will become west-southwest tomorrow
as the ridge axis shifts southward across the peninsula. The
development of the east coast sea breeze and movement inland will
cause winds to back out of the east-southeast each afternoon.
Wind speeds are forecast to remain below 15 mph through the
remainder of the week. Afternoon smoke dispersion will be
generally good to very good on Friday, and very good to excellent
Saturday.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  64  88  64  89 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  66  91  67  93 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  65  86  66  87 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  64  87  64  89 /   0   0   0  10
LEE  66  90  65  89 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  66  91  65  92 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  68  91  67  92 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  63  87  63  89 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Haley
LONG TERM...Fehling
AVIATION...Haley