Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 191400
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1000 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE THAT STIRRED UP STORMS ALONG THE VOLUSIA/NRN BREVARD
COAST EARLY THIS MORNING IS SHIFTING OFFSHORE WITH CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY REMAINING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. MAIN INITIATOR FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES AS THEY MOVE INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. SUPPRESSION BEHIND
THE EXITING SHORTWAVE MAY INITIALLY INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
SOMEWHAT NORTH OF ORLANDO TODAY. GREATER COVERAGE OF STORMS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR LATER IN THE DAY...ESPECIALLY WITH
THE SEA BREEZE COLLISION. 12Z MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A LITTLE HIGHER
PW VALUES THAN YESTERDAY AROUND 1.4-1.5 INCHES AND SOUTHEAST FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE MOISTURE THROUGH THE DAY. WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES AROUND 30/40 PERCENT OVER THE INTERIOR WITH 20 PERCENT
ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID
80S ALONG THE COAST TO UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 DEGREES INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR WITH TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS IN ANY
ISO/SCT SHRA/TSRA INTO THE AFTERNOON. GREATEST RAIN CHANCES WILL
REMAIN OVER THE INTERIOR WITH ANY SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS
LATER IN THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHEAST WINDS TO PERSIST OVER THE WATERS BETWEEN 10
TO 15 KNOTS TODAY WITH SEAS 2-4 FEET.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

WEITLICH/KELLY
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