National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS62 KMLB 170713
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
313 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.DISCUSSION...
THE AXIS OF A LOW LEVEL BERMUDA RIDGE EXTENDING WWD TO THE GULF
ALONG ~28N THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO LIFT NWD OVER THE NEXT 24H.
AVAILABLE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE REMAINS ON THE SEASONALLY LOW SIDE
NR 1.0-1.1 INCHES AS SAMPLED BY RECENT SOUNDINGS AND THE GPS
SATELLITE DERIVED DATA FROM SUOMI NET. DRYING MAINLY ASCD WITH
LONG TERM PRESENCE OF A RELATIVELY DRY EASTERLY/SE FLOW ALONG WITH
RIDGE ASCD SUBSIDENCE HAS THUS FAR HINDERED LOW TOPPED MARINE
BASED PCPN.

LIFTING NWD OF THE RIDGE AXIS COMBINED WITH APCH OF A MINOR UPR
TROPOSPHERIC DISTURBANCE AND STEADILY VEERING NR SFC WINDS WL
INCREASE MOISTURE INTO TONIGHT AND SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES WL BE
POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG THE TREASURE COAST...SOUTHERN OSCEOLA COUNTY
AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE. POP LESS THAN 20 PERCENT WL BE USED HOWEVER
DUE TO PREVALENCE OF RECOVERING PWAT JUST ABOVE AN INCH. TEMPS
WILL MAKE IT TO THE MID-UPR 80S WITH PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
TONIGHT A FEW INLAND SHOWERS WL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY W OF THE AREA.
WL KEEP A SILENT POP MENTION WITH SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES PSBL AT THE
SPACE-TREASURE COASTS AND MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

SAT-SUN...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA
AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE/500MB SLOWLY SHIFTS FROM
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO TENNESSEE/ALABAMA. COASTAL TIME
HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS SHOW A SLOW MOISTURE RETURN BUT STILL LIMITED
IN DEPTH TO AROUND 850MB/5000 FEET. LATE NIGHT/MORNING COASTAL
CONVERGENCE SHOWERS VERO BEACH/FORT PIERCE SOUTH. BETWEEN THE UPPER
80S AND AROUND 90S INTERIOR AND A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE SHOULD FORM EARLY AND PUSH ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA WITH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON COLLISIONS WITH THE WEST COAST
SEA BREEZE IN AREAS WEST OF ORLANDO..

MON-FRI...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS FORECAST TO REMAIN NORTH OF CENTRAL
FLORIDA. TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS INDICATING OVERALL MOISTURE
LEVEL OF THE WHOLE ATMOSPHERE INCREASING WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE
MOISTURE STILL BEING BELOW 850MB/5000 FEET. CHANCE/30 POP OF
AFTERNOON STORMS/SHOWER INTERIOR COUNTIES. SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
MORNING COASTAL CONVERGENCE SHOWER WITH EARLY AFTERNOON STORMS
COASTAL COUNTIES. RAIN CHANCES 20-30 PERCENT EACH DAY. HIGHS UPPER
80S AND LOW 90S INTERIOR AND MID TO HIGH 80S COASTAL AREAS. LOWS
MID/UPPER 60S INTERIOR AND UPPER 60S/LOW 70S COASTAL AREAS.


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS AREA WIDE WITH NO CIGS FORECAST BLO FL 120. EASTERLY SFC
WND G NR 15 TO 18 KTS WL BECOME PREVALENT ALONG COAST FM 17Z-23Z.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY/TONIGHT...ONSHORE FLOW 10 TO 15 KTS WITH HIGHER AFTERNOON
GUSTS FM AROND 1 PM THROUGH 8 PM. SEAS 3 TO 4 FT.

SAT- TUE. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 15 KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS
GENERALLY 3 TO 4 FEET WITH A 2 TO 3 FOOT LONG PERIOD SWELL
COMPONENT. THE SWELL COMPONENT MOST LIKELY WILL HAVE A ROLE IN
INCREASING THE RIP CURRENT RISK OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO MIN RH CONCERNS INTO NEXT WEEK AS MOISTURE LEVELS ARE SLOWLY
INCREASING DUE TO PERSISTENT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  85  67  86  69 /  10  10  20  10
MCO  89  67  90  68 /  10  10  30  20
MLB  85  70  86  72 /  10  10  20  10
VRB  84  69  85  70 /  10  10  20  10
LEE  89  68  91  70 /  10  10  30  20
SFB  89  68  90  70 /  10  10  20  10
ORL  89  70  91  71 /  10  10  30  20
FPR  84  69  85  69 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PENDERGRAST
LONG TERM....WIMMER