000
FXUS62 KMLB 160737
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
337 AM EDT THU MAY 16 2013

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY-TONIGHT...HI PRES RIDGE PARKED OVER THE W ATLC AND EXTENDING
ACRS THE NRN GOMEX WILL BE THE PRIMARY WX FEATURE FOR CENTRAL FL.
EVENING SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DRY/STABLE AIRMASS OVER THE
PENINSULA WITH PWAT VALUES ARND 1.0" AND A SHARP SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION IN THE H85-H70 LYR. THE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN A STEADY SERLY
BREEZE THAT WILL TAP A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS UPSTREAM...LATEST RAP
ANALYSIS INDICATING H100-H85 MEAN RH VALUES DECREASING FROM BTWN
60-70PCT OVER S FL TO ARND 50PCT N OF THE BAHAMA BANK.

THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL KEEP THE LCL AIRMASS CAPPED BLO
5KFT...FCST WILL REMAIN DRY. A WEAK UPR LVL DISTURBANCE MAY PUSH A
CIRRUS DECK ACRS CENTRAL FL...OTHERWISE ONLY SCT CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED. WARM AIR ADVECTION GENERATED BY THE SERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR TO WARM TO NEAR AVG. READING ALONG THE COAST
WILL BE OFFSET BY THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE...MAX READINGS IN THE
L80S ARND 5F BLO AVG. MIN TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE M/U60S...NEAR AVG
FOR MID MAY.

LATE WEEK...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN POSITIONING
OF MAP FEATURES THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. AN ELONGATED BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM THE GULF TO THE WRN ATLC BASIN JUST
NORTH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS
LOCALLY WITH SEASONAL TEMPS AND MODEST ONSHORE FLOW. STRENGTH OF
THE RIDGE LOOKS TO EASE DURING THE WEEKEND AS A SHORTWAVE OR TWO MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. WL KEEP POP JUST BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVEL
FRI AND AN ISOLATED STORM MENTION INLAND DURNG SAT AFTN.

EXTENDED...NEXT WEEK BEGINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE RELOCATING FURTHER NORTH
OF THE AREA. OPENING UP THE FLOW FROM THE TROPICS SHOULD BRING
HIGHER MOISTURE...AND WITH WEAKENING OF RIDGE NR AREA WL ALLOW
FOR ISOLD/SCT DIURNAL PCPN. INLAND STORM CHCS IMPROVE WHILE BEST
CHCS REMAIN INLAND WHERE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON BOUNDARY MERGERS
WL FORCE A LITTLE MORE ACTIVITY. PRESENCE OF ONSHORE FLOW WL KEEP
TEMPS MODERATED WITH NEAR SEASONAL READINGS AND PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
THRU 16/00Z...VFR ALL SITES...OCNL CIGS AOA FL120.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...HI PRES RIDGE EXTENDING FROM BERMUDA ACRS THE FL
PANHANDLE WILL GENERATE A GENTLE TO MODERATE E/SERLY BREEZE TODAY...
BCMG S/SERLY TONIGHT. SEAS 2-3FT NEARSHORE AND 3-4FT OFFSHORE...
MAINLY IN A 2-3FT/8-9SEC SWELL.

LATE WEEK...GENERALLY ONSHORE GRADIENT WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WITH
SOME HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS WL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. SEAS
GENERALLY WL REMAIN IN THE 2-4FT RANGE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RIDGE AXIS ACRS N FL WILL GENERATE A SERLY SFC/TRANSPORT FLOW
ACRS CENTRAL FL. LOW LVL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL DIMINISH AS THE
SERLY WINDS TAP RELATIVELY DRY AIR N OF THE BAHAMAS. EVEN SO...THE
ONSHORE WINDS OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS HAVE PUSHED SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE ACRS THE ERN PENINSULA TO KEEP MIN RH VALUES ABV CRITICAL
LVLS. A FEW SPOTS MAY BRIEFLY TOUCH THE 35PCT MARK...BUT
SIGNIFICANT DURATIONS NOT ANTICIPATED NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  81  65  85  67 /   0  10  10  10
MCO  87  66  89  67 /   0   0  10  10
MLB  81  69  86  71 /   0  10  10  10
VRB  81  68  84  69 /   0  10  10  10
LEE  87  66  89  68 /   0   0  10  10
SFB  87  66  89  68 /   0   0  10  10
ORL  87  67  89  70 /   0   0  10  10
FPR  81  68  84  69 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRAGAW
LONG TERM....PENDERGRAST