Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
641
FNUS72 KMLB 010927
FWSMLB
Spot Forecast for WS24-42...Florida Park Service
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
527 AM EDT Wed May 1 2024
Forecast is based on ignition time of 0600 EDT on May 01.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.
.DISCUSSION...
Patchy fog is possible at the burn site this morning, with light
and variable winds becoming northeast to east by the early
afternoon with the eventual arrival of the east coast sea breeze.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms will develop along the sea
breeze, increasing the threat for lightning later in the day.
Minimum RH values will hover just above critical levels, although
with warming temperatures, humidity may drop below 40% briefly
this afternoon, fully dependent on the timing of the sea breeze
and arrival of shower activity.
.TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent). Patchy fog early
in the morning. Slight chance of showers late
in the afternoon. Slight chance of
thunderstorms late in the afternoon. Chance of
showers late in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms until 1400, then 1-8 strikes.
Max temperature.....Around 90.
Min humidity........43 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming north 5 to 7 mph late in
the afternoon, then shifting to the northeast
around 8 mph late in the afternoon. Gusty and
erratic winds expected near thunderstorms late
in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......2100 ft AGL increasing to 5000 ft AGL late in
the morning, then increasing to 7200 ft AGL
late in the afternoon decreasing to 4600 ft AGL
late in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....South 2 to 5 mph shifting to the east 2 to 3
mph late in the morning, then shifting to the
northeast 3 to 9 mph in the afternoon.
Dispersion index....5 increasing to 53.
LVORI...............9 decreasing to 1.
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........46 46 43 32 21 11 16 21 27 32 37 42
Weather cov.....PTY PTY PTY SCH SCH SCH CHC
Weather type....FOG FOG FOG RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........ SCH SCH SCH SCH
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 20 20 30
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2
Temp............68 68 69 73 77 82 84 86 88 88 87 87
RH..............97 97 93 81 74 63 55 50 43 43 46 46
20 FT wind dir..S W W NW N N N N N N NE NE
20 FT wind spd..2 2 2 2 2 3 3 5 6 6 7 8
20 FT wind gust.3 3 3 3 5 6 6 7 8 10 12
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.4 0.5 1.2 2.1 3.4 5.0 6.1 7.0 7.2 6.6 4.6
Transp wind dir.S S SW S E NE NE N N N NE NE
Transp wind spd.5 3 2 2 2 3 3 3 5 6 8 9
Dispersion idx..2 1 2 4 8 16 24 34 44 50 56 50
LVORI...........8 9 7 5 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 1
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (20-30 percent). Chance of
showers and slight chance of thunderstorms
early in the evening.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
LAL.................1-8 strikes until 2000, then No Tstms.
Min temperature.....Around 67.
Max humidity........97 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 5 to 8 mph in the evening becoming
light. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
thunderstorms early in the evening.
Mixing height.......2700 ft AGL decreasing to 400 ft AGL early in
the evening.
Transport winds.....East around 9 mph shifting to the southeast 5
to 9 mph in the late evening and overnight.
Dispersion index....39 decreasing to 5 early in the evening.
LVORI...............1 increasing to 8.
TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
Sky (%).........35 20 20 20 19 25
Weather cov.....CHANCE
Weather type....RNSHWR NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........S CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).30 10 10 0 0 0
LAL.............2 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............85 81 77 74 71 69
RH..............51 63 71 82 90 93
20 ft wind......E 8 E 8 E 6 SE 5 SE 3 SE 2
20 ft wind gust.12 13 9 7 6 5
Mix hgt (ft)....3100 500 500 500 500 400
Transport wind..NE 9 E 9 SE 9 SE 8 SE 6 SE 5
Dispersion idx..41 7 4 3 3 2
LVORI...........1 3 3 5 6 7
.THURSDAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent). Slight chance of showers
and thunderstorms early in the morning.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms until 0800, then 1-8 strikes.
Max temperature.....Around 90.
Min humidity........42 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming east 5 to 10 mph in the
late morning and afternoon. Gusty and erratic
winds expected near thunderstorms early in the
morning.
Mixing height.......2000 ft AGL increasing to 7000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 5 to 10 mph.
Dispersion index....5 increasing to 67.
LVORI...............8 decreasing to 1.
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM
Sky (%).........31 27 15 29
Weather cov..... S CHC S CHC S CHC
Weather type....NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........ S CHC S CHC S CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).0 20 20 20
LAL.............1 2 2 2
Temp............69 75 86 89
RH..............97 79 53 44
20 FT wind......E 2G3 E 3 E 7 E 10G14
Mix hgt (ft)....400 2000 4900 6600
Transport wind..SE 5 E 6 E 8 E 9
Dispersion idx..2 14 44 67
LVORI...........8 4 1 1
$$
Forecaster...Schaper
Requested by...Benjamin Bandor
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2412836.0/MLB
.DELDT 05/01/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Ben.bandor@floridadep.gov