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000
FXUS64 KMOB 190911
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
411 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...WEATHER MAPS THIS MORNING SHOW AN
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROF BRINGING QUITE A BIT OF THUNDERSTORM/ENHANCED
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY FROM THE DAKOTAS...SOUTHWARD TO NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA. MEANWHILE...DOWNSTREAM UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE
GULF...NORTHWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS
FEATURE WILL EASE EASTWARD TODAY...BRINGING COMPRESSIONAL SINKING AND
WARMING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. RESULT WILL BE PROBABILITIES
OF THUNDERSTORMS A MEAGER 5 TO 10% AND WARM TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S...POSSIBLY TO AROUND 90 OVER THE
INTERIOR. WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS OFF THE GULF WATERS...BEACH
AREAS LOOK TO SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S. LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS EXPECTED TODAY...A BIT STRONGER CLOSER TO THE COAST AS THE
RESULT OF THE SEABREEZE. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FLOW AND BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE...A PERSISTENCE TYPE APPROACH WILL FOLLOW INTO THE
EVENING WITH PATCHY...POSSIBLY DENSE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS THICKENING
THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

A PRELIMINARY LOOK AT THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS LOW.
/10

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY...KEEPING CONDITIONS
MAINLY DRY ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT GIVEN FORECAST MLCAPES
OF 1500-2500 J/KG...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE INLAND MOVING SEABREEZE...BUT
RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN BELOW 20 PERCENT. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOW TO MID 80S ALONG THE COAST TO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S NORTH
OF I-10. A CONTINUED LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND WILL MAINTAIN MUGGY
CONDITIONS AT NIGHT AS LOWS ONLY DROP INTO THE MID 60S WELL INLAND TO
NEAR 70 ALONG THE COAST. LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG CAN ALSO BE
EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ON WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES EAST OUT
OF THE PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST AND LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE WESTERN CWA WHICH WILL FEEL LESSER EFFECTS OF THE RESIDUAL
RIDGING. WILL MAINTAIN 30 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES MAINLY NORTH OF THE
COAST AND WEST OF I-65...WITH LOWER CHANCES ELSEWHERE. THE TROUGH
MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY WITH A LIGHT WNW-NW MID AND UPPER FLOW
EXPECTED OVER THE AREA WITH THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE LOCATED
WELL TO THE WEST OVER MEXICO AND TEXAS. THEREFORE...WILL STAY WITH
LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO EMERGE BY
FRIDAY/SATURDAY WITH THE GFS BEING MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE ON AMPLIFYING
ANOTHER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WHILE THE ECMWF BUILDS
RIDGING INTO THE AREA. WILL ONLY SHOW A SLIGHT CHANCE OF DIURNAL
CONVECTION FOR THE TIME BEING. TEMPS WED-SAT VERY SIMILAR TO VALUES
EXPECTED EARLY IN THE WEEK...HOWEVER THEY WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
ALONG THE COAST DUE TO THE LACK OF A WELL DEFINED SOUTHERLY FLOW.
34/JFB

&&

.AVIATION (12Z ISSUANCE)...WILL START THE PACKAGE WITH POTENTIAL
OF LIFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS THRU ABOUT 14Z BEFORE CIGS/VSBYS LIFT MID
TO LATE MORNING DUE TO ONSET OF MIXING. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS
MORNING RANGE FROM 8 TO 13 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
LOWER...BECOMING LIGHT AFTER 20.00Z. /10

&&

.MARINE...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST...LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...POSSIBLY A LITTLE
STRONGER NEAR THE COAST...OVER BAYS AND SOUNDS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS
DUE TO DAILY AND NORTHWARD ADVANCING COASTAL SEA BREEZE. SMALL SEA
STATES WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCE OF RAIN FORECAST THROUGH THE EARLY
HALF OF THE WEEK. A SMALL CHANCE OF STORMS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS BY
THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PIVOTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      86  69  87  68  87 /  05  05  10  05  10
PENSACOLA   85  71  85  70  86 /  05  05  10  05  10
DESTIN      82  71  83  71  82 /  05  05  10  05  10
EVERGREEN   89  65  91  66  91 /  05  05  10  05  10
WAYNESBORO  88  67  90  66  90 /  05  05  10  05  10
CAMDEN      90  66  91  66  90 /  10  05  10  05  10
CRESTVIEW   90  65  91  66  91 /  05  05  10  05  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$