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000
FXUS64 KMOB 170501 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1201 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.AVIATION [06Z ISSUANCE]...VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 09Z FRI
FOLLOWED BY IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 15Z FRI...THEN MVFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH 21Z...FOLLOWED BY VFR CONDITIONS. PATCHY FOG WITH
VISIBILITIES LOWERING TO AROUND 5SM WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE BY EARLY
FRI MORNING. /22

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY]...LATEST RADAR LOOPS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
EASTWARD ACROSS INLAND AREAS OF THE CWFA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FORM AHEAD OF A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORT WAVE
TROFS TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND CENTRAL
GULF STATES THROUGH FRI...WITH THE FIRST MOVING EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA LATER THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT IMPULSE APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST EARLY ON FRI. WITH THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE MOSTLY
IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...GENERALLY FROM 4K TO 10K FT
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING IS NOT REALLY
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH LATEST VISIBLE LOOPS DO SHOW A FEW WEAK BOUNDARIES
NEAR THE SFC CLOSER TO THE COAST POSSIBLY SPARKING A BRIEF SHOWER BEFORE
00Z FRI.

BY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRI NEXT ROUND OF ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE MS RIVER AND ACROSS
CENTRAL PARTS OF MS APPROACHING PARTS OF INLAND SE MS AND SW AL NEAR
SUNRISE FRI MORNING. WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE IN THE MODEL
SOUNDINGS...PWATS UP TO 1.5 INCHES MOSTLY INLAND DURING THE MORNING
HOURS ON FRI...SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE MOSTLY EARLY
FRI. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN WILL BE GENERALLY NORTH OF A
LINE FROM WIGGINS MS TO EVERGREEN AL THROUGH 18Z FRI. RAIN CHANCE
DECREASE IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO BETTER MIXING AND MORE STABLE
CONDITIONS FORMING NEAR THE SFC AND ALOFT. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S GENERALLY TO THE EAST OF THE I-65
CORRIDOR AND AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S TO WEST AND ALONG THE COAST.
FRIDAYS HIGH TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE MID 80S FOR MOST INLAND
AREAS AND IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
BKN TO OVC SKIES OVERNIGHT AND FRI MORNING WILL BE FOLLOWED BY SCT TO
BKN SKIES FRI AFTERNOON. EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG FOR MOST AREAS NEAR
SUNRISE ON FRI. THE WET MICROBURST RISK IS UNLIKELY. 32/EE

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TRACK ACROSS THE VICINITY
OF KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN INDIANA/OHIO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON THE BASE OF THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO CLIP
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ALABAMA FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH LOOKS TO HAVE ENOUGH ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AND LIFT TO WARRANT A
CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES FRIDAY NIGHT. UPPER RIDGING WILL DEVELOP
FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
SATURDAY...PROMOTING DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WE DID INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS ACROSS OUR FAR
NORTHEASTERN AREAS SATURDAY AS ONE LAST SHORTWAVE IMPULSE MOVES
ACROSS EASTERN ALABAMA ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEVELOPING
RIDGE. OTHERWISE...A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL
MAINTAIN A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW PATTERN ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY. WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH THIS
PATTERN. /21

LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE
EXTENDED FORECAST DATABASE. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE
TO SHIFT/DEVELOP EASTWARD FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE GULF OF
MEXICO LATE THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. DEEP LAYER DRY
AIRMASS/SUBSIDENCE UNDERNEATH THIS FEATURE WILL PROMOTE DRY
CONDITIONS...AND HAVE KEPT RAIN CHANCES AT OR LESS THAN 10 PERCENT
THROUGH TUESDAY. INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT RETURNS BY MID TO
LATE WEEK...AND MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS WITHIN THIS FLOW MAY BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
BACK INTO THE FORECAST BY WED-THU. OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO CONTINUE A WARMING TREND...MID TO UPPER 80S THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...LIKELY BREAKING THE 90 DEGREE MARK FOR MANY AREAS MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S INTERIOR TO
AROUND 70 CLOSER TO THE COAST. 21/10

MARINE...DEEP RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN GULF AND WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY EAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A
GENERALLY LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW OVER THE
MARINE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. BETTER WINDS AND WAVES WILL
OCCUR OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS DUE TO A DEVELOPING SEABREEZE EACH DAY. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 FEET OUT TO 60 NM THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      66  83  67  85  67 /  10  20  10  10  10
PENSACOLA   68  82  69  83  69 /  10  10  10  10  10
DESTIN      67  80  70  82  70 /  10  05  10  10  10
EVERGREEN   61  87  64  88  66 /  20  20  20  10  10
WAYNESBORO  66  85  66  87  65 /  20  20  20  10  10
CAMDEN      61  87  64  87  66 /  20  20  20  20  10
CRESTVIEW   60  87  64  88  64 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$