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000
FXUS64 KMOB 160918
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
418 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

.SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT]...AN ELONGATED MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL MS TO SOUTHWEST LA HAS RESULTED IN
SOME RADAR RETURNS ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. ALL
THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS PRESENT IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WITH THE AIRMASS BELOW 500 MB BEING VERY DRY...AS OBSERVED
FROM THE 00Z SLIDELL SOUNDING. THEREFORE...AS THE RAIN FALLS INTO THE
VERY DRY AIR...ONLY A FEW SPRINKLES ARE LIKELY MAKING IT TO THE
SURFACE. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
MORNING...WITH A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION...BUT IT IS
NOT EXPECTED TO AMOUNT TO MUCH ELSE...SO WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES BELOW
20 PERCENT.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WEAKENS AS IT TREKS EAST TODAY...WITH A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTING OVER THE REGION. WHILE THIS
WEAKNESS WILL BE PRESENT...THERE ARE NO DISCERNABLE MID-UPPER LEVEL
FORCING MECHANISMS PRESENT. WE WILL SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
SEABREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR BRIEF STORM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT ALONG IT. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH
RESIDUAL DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE TO KEEP MOST LOCATIONS DRY.
THEREFORE...WILL KEEP CHANCES OF MEASURABLE PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA
BELOW 20 PERCENT. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT WITH A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW PERSISTING. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME PASSING
MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT THERE WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOW STRATUS/PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LEVELS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE. STAYED CLOSED TO MAV
GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS
EXPECTED. 34/JFB

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS UNLIKELY.

FRIDAY...A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE EVOLVES OVER TEXAS WHILE ON ITS EAST
SIDE...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MID LEVEL IMPULSES TO DROP
SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE HIGHER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. CONSIDERING
WEAK FORCING FROM THESE PERTURBATIONS...AFTERNOON INSTABILITY...ALONG WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS AROUND 1.5 INCHES...LOOKS TO SUPPORT A MENTION OF
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON STORMS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF
ZONES CLOSER TO THE SOUTHERN AXIS OF ANY HIGHER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING
INTO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM
BUTLER TO CAMDEN TO LUVERNE ALABAMA. WESTWARD EXTENSION OF SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC SURFACE HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY
FLOW...EXCEPT A BIT STRONGER DURING THE AFTERNOON...CLOSER TO THE
COAST ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHWARD ADVANCE OF SEABREEZE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S. FULL RANGE OF THE 60S FORECAST FRIDAY
NIGHT FOR LOW TEMPERATURES. /10

.LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...WESTWARD EXTENSION OF
SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC SURFACE HIGH PERSISTS WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY
FLOW...EXCEPT A BIT STRONGER DURING THE AFTERNOONS...CLOSER TO THE
COAST AS SEABREEZE DEVELOPS AND EASES NORTHWARD. BUILDING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE LOOKS TO MITIGATE RAIN CHANCES WITH PROBABILITIES AT OR LESS
THAN 10% THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON A WARMING
TREND...MID TO UPPER 80S THROUGH THE WEEKEND...LIKELY BREAKING THE
90 DEGREE MARK FOR MANY AREAS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S INTERIOR TO AROUND 70 CLOSER TO
THE COAST. /10

&&

.AVIATION (12Z ISSUANCE)...POCKETS OF MVFR STRATUS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH CIGS LIFTING BACK TO VFR
LEVELS BY MID TO LATE MORNING AS DAYTIME HEATING COMMENCES.
SCATTERED CUMULUS WITH VFR BASES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BY LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE TAF SITES AS THE AFTERNOON
SEABREEZE DEVELOPS AND MOVES INLAND. WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH
POCKETS OF LOW STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPING EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...
POTENTIALLY REACHING IFR LEVELS. 34/JFB

&&

.MARINE...A BROAD REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE
NORTHEAST GULF INTO THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THEREFORE...A GENERALLY LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. A SEABREEZE
WILL DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS
OVER INLAND BAYS AND SOUNDS. LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS IS EXPECTED.
34/JFB


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      83  65  84  67  85 /  10  00  05  05  05
PENSACOLA   82  68  83  68  84 /  10  05  05  05  05
DESTIN      79  68  80  68  81 /  10  05  05  05  05
EVERGREEN   86  62  87  63  89 /  10  05  10  05  10
WAYNESBORO  85  64  85  65  88 /  10  05  10  05  05
CAMDEN      85  64  86  63  87 /  10  05  20  10  10
CRESTVIEW   85  59  87  61  89 /  10  05  05  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$