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000
FXUS64 KMOB 181729 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1230 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.AVIATION...(18Z ISSUANCE)...VFR CIGS/VISBYS ACROSS THE FA EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING A
STRATUS DECK MOVING INLAND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AFTER 06Z...WITH
CIGS/VISBYS DROPPING INTO IFR LEVELS. SOME LOCAL DROPS TO LIFR
LEVELS...ESPECIALLY NEAR KMOB...ARE LIKELY. WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...CIGS/VISBYS EXPECTED TO RISE QUICKLY.

/16

&&

.ZONE UPDATE...DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE CURRENT ZONE FORECAST
MAINLY FOR PRECIP OCCURRING OVER NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE CWFA THIS
MORNING. COVERAGE IS NOW A LITTLE BETTER THEN EARLIER ANTICIPATED AS
TAIL END OF MSC TO THE NORTH CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST SOUTHEAST.
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 20 MPH WILL ALSO BE LIKELY. WINDS GUSTS UP TO 35
TO 45 MPH ALONG WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS. THIS CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. 32/EE

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...LATEST RADAR LOOPS SHOW A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EASTWARD OVER EXTREME NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE CWFA THIS MORNING GENERALLY ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING
SHORT WAVE TROF MOVING FROM NORTHERN AL THIS MORNING INTO PARTS OF
NORTHERN GA LATER TODAY AND OVERNIGHT. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS PATTERN THIS MORNING DEPICTING FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER NORTHEAST
SECTIONS OF THE CWFA LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON TAPERING
OFF THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING BETTER FORCING OR LIFT IN THE MID LEVELS SHIFTS NE IN
RESPONSE TO AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE LOWER AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY
SHIFTING EASTWARD TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GULF AND SE STATES. LATEST
MODEL SOUNDINGS TO THE NORTH SHOW A FAIRLY MOIST COLUMN THIS MORNING
MOSTLY NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF EVERGREEN AL WITH PWS RANGING FROM 1.6
TO 1.8 FROM 12Z TO 18Z DRYING OUT SLOWLY THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT EXPECT MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN FOR MOST INLAND
AREAS EARLY TODAY FOLLOWED BY LESS CLOUDS AND BETTER SUNSHINE
GENERALLY DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST AS UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST
SHIFTS FURTHER EAST. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE AND NORTH CENTRAL
GULF ALSO BUILDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS
SIMILAR TO THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS RESULTING IN A SLIGHTLY BETTER
WIND FIELD ACROSS THE LOWER HALF OF THE CWFA THEN WHAT THE CURRENT
MODEL GUIDANCE IS DEPICTING. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE
WARMER MAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY AND GO A TAD HIGHER FOR SOME
INLAND AREAS TO THE WEST DUE BETTER SUNSHINE LATE AND A TAD COOLER
NEAR THE COAST DUE TO THE COOLER NEAR WATERS ALONG WITH A PERSISTENT
ONSHORE FLOW. 32/EE

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS LOW

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
PRECIP IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TIME AS THE UPPER RIDGE WILL TEND TO
SUPPRESS ANY DIURNAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE
MLCAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG...SO AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY DISCOUNTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE INLAND MOVING AFTERNOON
SEABREEZE...BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN BELOW 20 PERCENT. HIGHS WILL
CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10 WITH TEMPS
REACHING NEAR 90 WELL INLAND. A PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL MAINTAIN RATHER MUGGY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT AS LOWS ONLY DROP INTO THE MID 60S WELL INLAND TO NEAR 70 ALONG
THE COAST.

THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES
EAST OUT OF THE PLAINS STATES. WILL HAVE 20-30 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES
FOR THIS TIME FRAME...HIGHEST OVER THE WESTERN ZONES ON WEDNESDAY
WITH 30 PERCENT CHANCES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA FOR THURSDAY. MOST OF
THE PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS IS MORE ROBUST WITH
BRINGING MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROUGH...WHILE THE ECMWF DAMPENS OUT THE TROUGH QUICKER AND MAINTAINS
A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WILL KEEP
SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES IN FOR FRIDAY FOR THE TIME BEING AND WAIT FOR A
BETTER CONSENSUS TO DEVELOP. TEMPS WED-FRI VERY SIMILAR TO VALUES
EXPECTED EARLY IN THE WEEK. 34/JFB

&&

.MARINE...A DEEP RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN GULF AND WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN MOSTLY STATIONARY
THROUGH THE EARLY NEXT WEEK. TO THE NORTH A PASSING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL SHIFT EAST GENERALLY FROM NORTHERN AL TO NORTHERN
GA. WITH THIS PATTERN COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON HEATING OR SEABREEZE
EFFECTS A MODERATE SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MARINE
AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THROUGH SUN MORNING.
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SLIGHTLY HIGHER THEN WHAT
THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS DEPICTING FOR TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT MOSTLY
DUE TO THE TIGHTER PRES/TEMP GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST. SEAS WILL
CONTINUE TO RUN AT 2 TO 3 FEET OUT TO 60 NM DECREASING SLIGHTLY BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      85  68  85  68  86 /  10  10  10  05  05
PENSACOLA   82  69  83  70  84 /  10  10  10  05  10
DESTIN      79  71  80  72  80 /  10  10  10  05  10
EVERGREEN   87  66  88  66  90 /  20  20  10  10  10
WAYNESBORO  87  68  88  67  89 /  20  10  10  05  05
CAMDEN      88  66  88  66  89 /  30  20  10  10  10
CRESTVIEW   87  64  88  65  90 /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$