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000
FXUS64 KMOB 131000 CCA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED TO INCLUDE FIRE WEATHER SECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
428 AM CDT MON MAY 13 2013

.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL
TROF...EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS TODAY...MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST
TONIGHT. BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT SET UP OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
WITH AREA BEING DOMINATED BY LOW HUMIDITY AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE EXPANDS EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES AND NORTHERN GULF
IN THE NEAR TERM. HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL
ADVANCE EASTWARD TODAY AND EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM 77 TO 80 ON AVERAGE. UNDER LIGHT
WINDS...DRY CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT...AN UNSEASONABLY
COOL NIGHT UPCOMING WITH COOLEST NIGHTTIME LOWS DIPPING DOWN INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S OVER THE INTERIOR...WHILE NUMBERS OVER THE
SOUTHERN ZONES IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. IN FACT... LOW TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO CLOSE IN ON OR BREAK A FEW RECORDS TONIGHT.

HERE ARE THE MIN TEMP RECORDS (R) AND FORECAST TEMPS (F) PROJECTED
FOR TONIGHT ACROSS OUR AREA...

MOBILE REGIONAL AIRPORT...(R) 49/1960 - (F) 51
PENSACOLA AIRPORT...(R) 53/1882-1960-2002 - (F) 56
CRESTVIEW SIKES AIRPORT...(R) 47 - (F) 44
ANDALUSIA AL...(R) 44 - (F) 46
EVERGREEN COOP...(R) 47 - (F) 44
GREENVILLE AL...(R) 46 - (F) 45
BREWTON AL...(R) 47 - (F) 44
THOMASVILLE AL...(R) 43 - (F) 48
WAYNESBORO MS...(R) 43 - (F) 48
WIGGINS MS...(R) 47 - (F) 49

[TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...UPPER RIDGING TO OUR WEST WILL
SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
SHORT TERM AS AN UPPER LOW OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO MOVES NORTHEAST
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THEN EAST
TOWARD THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. CIRRUS
CLOUD DEBRIS FROM THE UPPER LOW WILL SPILL OVER THE UPPER RIDGE AND
INVADE THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL KEEP SKIES
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY FOR NOW DUE TO EXPECTED LACK OF
OPAQUENESS OF THE CLOUD SHIELD. MAY NEED TO ADJUST TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY DEPENDING ON WHAT THE SATELLITE IS
DETECTING TO OUR WEST PRIOR TO THAT TIME FRAME. DRY WEATHER WILL
PERSIST HOWEVER.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S INLAND AREAS AND RANGE FROM 75 TO 80 DEGREES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COASTAL SECTIONS DUE TO THE COOL GULF WATERS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS.
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE BETWEEN 52 AND 58 DEGREES INLAND
AREAS...AND FROM 59 TO 65 DEGREES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
SECTIONS. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE 2 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER ACROSS
THE BOARD. /22

&&

.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF AND SOUTHEAST STATES
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE LONG TERM. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH TEMPERATURES BACK
TO NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. IT WILL BE
MOSTLY DRY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE AXIS OF AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY MORNING SHIFTS EAST OVER THE
FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY EVENING...AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
MAINLY DRIVEN BY DECREASING LOW LEVEL STABILITY AND ADEQUATE
MOISTURE AND A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE. DRY WEATHER IS THEN FORECAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...TEMPERATURES
WILL REBOUND BACK TO NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S...AND HIGHS SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...EXCEPT LOWER 80S AT THE
BEACHES DUE TO THE COOL GULF WATERS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS. /22

&&

.AVIATION [13.12Z KMOB/KBFM/KPNS TAF ISSUANCE]...VFR CONDITIONS NEXT
24 HOURS. LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY BECOME CALM TONIGHT
AS AXIS OF SURFACE HIGH WILL BE ATOP THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. /10

&&

.MARINE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE MORNING NORTHEAST FLOW IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN INTO THE AFTERNOON AS AXIS OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY WILL BECOME MORE ONSHORE...BUT REMAIN LIGHT IN SPEED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE
NORTHEAST GULF TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FEET THIS
MORNING WILL TREND LOWER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SMALL SEA
STATES...(1 TO 2 FEET) FORECAST TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. LOOK TO BE
ENJOYING A RAINFREE WEEK. /10

&&

.FIRE...A DRIER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO THE 20 TO 26 PERCENT RANGE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE LOWEST VALUES
ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL ALABAMA. WHILE RELATIVE HUMIDITY MAY FALL TO CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS...OTHER PARAMETERS SUCH AS
DURATION...ERC AND KBDI VALUES WILL NOT BE MET FOR RED FLAG
CRITERIA. EXCELLENT DISPERSIONS WILL OCCUR TODAY WITH VALUES RANGING
FROM 100 TO 150. A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT OF RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS...FOG IS EXPECTED TONIGHT IN RIVER
VALLEYS...LOW LYING AND OTHER FOG PRONE AREAS WITH VISIBILITIES
REDUCED TO ONE HALF OF A MILE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      78  51  82  58  83 /  00  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   80  56  81  60  82 /  00  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      78  59  78  62  80 /  00  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   77  44  84  53  86 /  00  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  79  48  85  55  85 /  00  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      77  45  85  54  86 /  00  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   80  44  83  52  86 /  00  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$