511
AWUS01 KWNH 010136
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-010530-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0201
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
935 PM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Areas affected...Southwest OK

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 010135Z - 010530Z

SUMMARY...A few clusters of slow-moving and merging supercell
activity over southwest OK will likely maintain an additional
flash flood threat over the next few hours before the activity
gradually begins to weaken.

DISCUSSION...Radar imagery shows a few supercell thunderstorm
clusters over southwest OK that are very slow-moving and locally
merging together. The activity which initiated earlier along the
west TX/OK dry line has begun to edge very slowly off to the east,
but remains in a very unstable airmass with MLCAPE values of 3000+
J/Kg. Relatively strong bulk shear of 30 to 40 kts, and a
southerly low-level jet of 20 to 30+ kts will likely to tend to
favor convective sustenance over at least the next few hours
before increasing low-level CINH gradually facilitates a weakening
process.

Rainfall rates with the stronger storms have already been on the
order of 2+ inches/hour, and additional localize storm totals with
the slow-moving storms and cell-merger activity may reach 3 to 5
inches. Already there have been areas just southeast of Hobart, OK
where GC-MRMS shows rainfall totals of 5 to 6 inches. Overall, the
early evening guidance has been notably underdone with the ongoing
activity, but the latest satellite and radar trends certainly
favor locally focused and persistent convection.

Given the very high rainfall rates, cell-merger activity, and
overall slow cell-motions off to the east, additional areas of
flash flooding are likely at least on a small scale. Conditions
though should gradually improve later in the evening and overnight.

Orrison

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   35149843 35109774 34779758 34439790 34249849
            34309921 34599952 34929927