Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 161803
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
103 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Critical fire weather conditions Today across portions of
  central & southern Minnesota.

- Critical fire weather conditions will be possible Sunday
  across central & southern Minnesota.

- Gusty west-northwest winds today through Sunday, with gusts
  up to 40 mph possible this afternoon.

- Little to no precipitation forecast over the next 7 days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 319 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

Winter has heard your complaints and decided it`d be a good
time to return. The transition to early March-like weather is
well underway this morning. A rex block has set up over the West
Coast of North America with a closed low stationed over the
desert southwest region. This will be the eastern edge of the
rex block and set the pattern for northwesterly flow aloft to
develop across the central CONUS. A potent shortwave over
eastern Manitoba will drop southeast into the upper Great Lakes
this afternoon and into the lower Great Lakes by this evening.
The associated surface cold front will move across the area this
morning. This will usher in colder temperatures and gusty west-
northwest winds for the remainder of the weekend. Winds with
gusts up to 40 mph will be possible this afternoon which is just
below wind advisory criteria. Highs today are likely occurring
right now. Current obs reveal temperatures in the low 50s across
portions of southern Minnesota & western Wisconsin early this
morning. Temperatures will gradually drop into the upper 30s by
sunrise before warming back up into the low 40s this afternoon.
Colder temperatures & strong winds will support wind chills in
the 30s this afternoon, which is not particularly important but
it will feel significantly colder due to the recent warm stretch
we`ve experienced. The frontal passage should be dry with the
deeper moisture way off to our east over the Great Lakes.
Despite the marginal minRH values of around 30 percent, the
combination of strong winds gusting to 35-40 mph and very dry
fuels will support critical fire weather conditions this
afternoon across portions of southern and western Minnesota. A
similar situation could develop Sunday due to the combination of
winds/dry fuels/low RH values.

Lows tonight will drop into the teens with wind chills in the
single digits. Again, not particularly impressive, but it`ll
likely require us to break out the Winter coats if you`re
outside this evening. Sunday will be colder with high
temperatures only warming into the low to mid 30s. A few
scattered snow showers will be possible under the strong cold
air advection, mainly across central MN and W WI, and will prove
to be nothing more than a brief inconvenience. Next week will
continue the cooler trend with more seasonable temperatures in
the low 40s for highs and 20s for lows. The winds will decrease
on Monday before increasing on Tuesday as a brief one day warm
up occurs Tuesday. Highs in the mid to upper 40s looks possible.
Beyond that winds taper off to more comfortable levels.

As we move into the mid to end of next week an uptick in
shortwave activity is currently advertised in guidance. These
will be your Alberta Clipper-type systems that don`t have a
large widespread precipitation shield, but could bring some
light precipitation across the region. This was reflected in the
NBM PoPS of slight & chance for the second half of the week. The
next period of interest lays just beyond the forecast period.
There is a decent signal for a potential system to impact the
region in the March 23-26th range. I only bring this up since
we`re in need of any precipitation that we can get with the
Spring green up set to arrive earlier this Spring.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

Strong northwesterly flow prevails at all TAF sites early this
afternoon. The strongest winds will continue through early
evening, before diminishing slightly overnight. It will still
be quite breezy overnight, with gusts in the 20-25 kt range. The
wind forecast remains breezy tomorrow, with sustained winds of
15-20 kts and gusts increasing to 25-30kts. Morning MVFR
stratus across central Minnesota has had a tendency to lift,
such that all TAF sites are forecast to remain VFR through the
period. BKN/OVC ceilings around 4-5k ft expected. A few flurries
may fly tomorrow afternoon, but confidence is too low to
include in the 18z TAFs.

KMSP...Northwest flow continues to prevail through the period,
with little in the way of expected crosswind concerns on the
parallels. We`ve trended the TAF up to VFR throughout, with
ceilings near 4k ft. Hi-res guidance points to the chance of a
snowflake or two flying beneath stratus tomorrow afternoon, but
confidence in potential visibility reductions is low at this
time.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. Wind NW 5-15 kts.
TUE...VFR. Wind NW 10-15G25-30kts.
WED...VFR. Winds NW 10-15kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 626 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

After yesterday`s collab on the Fire Wx Watch, additional
discussion overnight while keeping in mind VERY dry fuels has
led to an expansion in the areal composition of the Watch to run
with a Red Flag Warning for much of central-southern MN. Despite
RH`s expected to bottom out only around 30 percent, as opposed
to the traditional 25 percent, the excessively dry fuels with
the strong winds will lead to a heightened fire danger as any
outdoor burns may quickly spread. A similar situation could
develop Sunday despite colder temperatures, but RH may be a bit
drier and winds may be a bit lighter.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for Blue Earth-
     Brown-Carver-Chippewa-Dakota-Faribault-Freeborn-Goodhue-
     Hennepin-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Le Sueur-Martin-McLeod-
     Meeker-Nicollet-Pope-Ramsey-Redwood-Renville-Rice-Scott-
     Sibley-Stearns-Steele-Stevens-Swift-Waseca-Watonwan-
     Wright-Yellow Medicine.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BPH
AVIATION...Strus
FIRE WEATHER...JPC


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