Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 061054
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
454 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

THE MAIN DILEMMA IS WHETHER THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
GENERATE MEASURABLE SNOWFALL /AN INCH OR LESS/ LATER TONIGHT AS A
SHRTWV MOVES RAPIDLY SE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.

THIS SHRTWV IN QUESTION IS EVIDENT ON VIS/FOG/WV IMAGERY IN THE
WESTERN PART OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. EVEN THOUGH MODELS GENERATE A
HUNDREDTH OR TWO OF PRECIPITATION...BELIEVE MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING LIMITED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT. MORE CONFIDENT ON ONLY VIRGA/FLURRIES AT BEST...BUT THE LATEST
CAMS DO SUPPORT A SMALL AREA OF MEASURABLE SNOW ACROSS FAR MPX FAR
N/NE CWA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. EARLIER FORECAST HAD 20-40% CHC
OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE GENERAL AREA WHERE THE CAMS HAVE MEASURABLE
SNOW...SO WILL CONTINUE THE SAME TREND. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W/NW
LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTN AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...TEMPS WILL MANAGE TO RISE INTO THE
20S/30S. WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND ELEVATED WIND SPDS
TONIGHT...TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING UPSTREAM OBS IN MT/ND AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA REMAINING
IN THE 20S/30S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

MILD TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH NO MAJOR STORM SYSTEMS FORESEEN THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
CONUS AS CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH ANCHORED OVER
HUDSON BAY. A FEW SPOKES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL ROTATE OVER THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND. THE ECMWF AND GEM MODELS...WHICH BRING LIGHT
SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH ONE SUCH WAVE INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WERE THE PREFERRED MODELS FOR PRECIP
CHANCES. THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE PRIMARILY SNOW AS THE PRECIP
TYPE...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO AN INCH ALONG/SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN MN.

AFTER THE WEEKEND...THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE PRIMARILY DRY...WITH
THE MAIN HEADLINE BEING THE MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND. BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON...850MB TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ARE
EXPECTED...WITH A HEALTHY SOUTHWEST WIND PROVIDING SUFFICIENT
MIXING TO YIELD HIGHS WELL INTO THE 40S. ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE
AFOREMENTIONED CANADIAN CYCLONE DIPS A BIT SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. THE
06.00Z GFS WANTS TO SINK THE ASSOCIATED HEIGHT/TEMP REDUCTIONS
WELL SOUTH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...WHILE THE 06.00Z ECMWF AND
GEM KEEP THE RIDGING IN PLACE AND THEREFORE MAINTAIN THE
MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE CONSENSUS
SOLUTION WHICH FAVORS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY...VERSUS THE 20S AND 30S ILLUSTRATED BY THE GFS.

THE GLANCING BLOW OF COLDER AIR DEPICTED BY THE GFS SHIFTS OFF TO
THE EAST BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH ALL MODELS FORECASTING
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

NO AVIATION CONCERNS IN THE FIRST 12-18 HRS WITH A WIND SHIFT TO
THE WNW BY MID/LATE MORNING...THEN BACK TO THE SW LATE THIS
AFTN...AND ONCE AGAIN BACK TO THE WNW/NW LATE TONIGHT AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT MOVES THRU. BEHIND THE SECOND COLD FRONT...MVFR CIGS
ARE POSSIBLE.

KMSP...

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN IS TIMING OF WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SW ARND
8-10 KTS BY 13-15Z...THEN MORE WNW BY 18Z. THE WINDS WILL ONCE
AGAIN BACK TO THE SW THIS AFTN. ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND POSSIBLE
MVFR CIGS RETURN BY 12Z SATURDAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

SAT...POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS EARLY. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.
SUN...MAINLY VFR. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE WITH -SN. WINDS WSW TO WNW 10 KTS.
MON...VFR. WINDS SW 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JLT


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