Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 262219
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
419 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

MINIMAL SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD OTHER
THAN THE LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE REGION...AND CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL PROMOTE
RADIATIONAL COOLING. THEREFORE FELT CONFIDENT USING BIAS CORRECTED
GUIDANCE TO HIGHLIGHT THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS ACROSS THE CWA...AND
THEN ADJUSTED TEMPS DOWN ALONG THE MN VALLEY WHERE THE FRESH SNOW
FELL YESTERDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...SO NO WIND CHILL ADVISORY WAS
DEEMED NECESSARY...ALTHOUGH AIR TEMPS WILL START THE MORNING AT -15
TO -20 FOR MOST LOCATIONS OUTSIDE THE CITY LIMITS. FRIDAY TEMPS WILL
REBOUND INTO THE TEENS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WEST SOUTHWEST
WINDS. THERE IS ZERO CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

STARTING OFF FRIDAY NIGHT...QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED WITH THE
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE DRY AIR MASS IN
PLACE WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY INTO SATURDAY.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP SATURDAY AND WARM TEMEPRATURES INTO
THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S. MEANWHILE A POSITIVELY TILTED
TROUGH WILL BE DEEPENING ACROSS THE WEST COAST. AS THIS
OCCURS...THE UPPER JET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS WILL BEGIN
LIFTING NORTH...AND WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL
ENSUE ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AND MIDWEST. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO OUR SOUTH AS THAT AREA WILL SEE THE STRONGEST LIFT
PAIRED WITH SATURATION. WITH THE FORCING LIMITED IN OUR AREA...AS
WELL AS MOISTURE...EXPECTING THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL TO SEE SOME
LIGHT SNOW IN OUR SOUTH...BUT GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

FOCUS TURNS TO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH
PIVOTS TO THE EAST AND LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS. THE SURFACE
LOW IS PROJECTED TO EJECT EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MIDWEST
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. THE EC/GFS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
MEASURABLE SNOWFALL ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN MN FROM LATE MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. BEING 5 DAYS AWAY ITS MUCH TOO
EARLY TO TALK SPECIFICS WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THERE REMAINS PLENTY
OF SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE A
TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT WITH GULF MOISTURE BEING PULLED UP FROM THE
SOUTH...AND ANOTHER ARCTIC SURGE ON THE NORTHWESTERN FLANK TO
FOLLOW. WITH THE GFS/EC SOLUTIONS INDICATING A SIMILAR SURFACE
LOW TRACK...DID INCREASE POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR
SOUTHERN MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI. AT THIS TIME INDICATED SNOW AS
THE ONLY P-TYPE BUT MUCH OF A SHIFT NORTH FROM THE CURRENT GFS
SOLUTION WOULD CAUSE P-TYPE CONCERNS FOR OUR AREA. MUCH OF HOW
THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS WILL DEPEND ON A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE
ADVANCING SOUTHEAST FROM WESTERN CANADA.

AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH MIDWEST...ANOTHER ARCTIC SURGE
WILL FOLLOW WITH MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMEPRATURES LOOKING MORE AND
MORE LIKELY. HOWEVER...THE GFS/EC BOTH INDICATE THE WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE PUSHING EAST AND WARMING US UP AROUND NEXT WEEKEND...SO WILL
SEE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1136 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE COME
WESTERLY AROUND SUNRISE...AND PICK UP A SLIGHT SOUTHERLY COMPONENT
BY LATE MORNING.

KMSP...
VFR CONDITIONS. NORTHERLY WINDS BACKING OVERNIGHT TO A WSW
DIRECTION BY MID DAY FRIDAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WINDS S AT 15 KTS.
SUN...VFR WITH MVFR/-SN POSSIBLE. WINDS W AT 10 KTS.
MON...VFR WITH MVFR/IFR SN LIKELY LATE. WINDS SE AT 10KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...JRB


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