Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 280850
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
350 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

THE PRIMARY SHORT TERM CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND THE INFLUENCE THAT
WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRAPPED BETWEEN THE EASTERN TROUGH AND THE
WESTERN RIDGE WILL HAVE ON LOCAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
TEMPERATURES TODAY.

CLOUD COVER HAS REMAINED QUITE EXTENSIVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT AS CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES...WITH SCATTERED SPRINKLES AND LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS ALONG/EAST OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE REFUSING TO GIVE UP AS
WEAK 700-600MB FRONTOGENESIS PERSISTS. EXPECT THE CLOUD COVER TO
LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN
ANTICIPATED. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUES TO SPILL ACROSS WEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL MN TODAY...WHICH WILL LIKELY PROVE SUFFICIENT TO
SPAWN SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE MN RIVER VALLEY INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
MN DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. DUE TO THE ANTICIPATION
OF MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER TODAY...HAVE LOWERED FORECAST HIGHS TO
BETWEEN 70 AND 75 DEGREES.

SHOULD SEE A CLEARER NIGHT TONIGHT WITH THE WEAK CHANNEL OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY EXPECTED TO SAG WEST/SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. LOWS SHOULD DIP
INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S IN MOST AREAS...WITH UPPER 50S IN THE TWIN
CITIES METRO AREA.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BECOME PARKED ACROSS THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO NORTHWEST FLOW...UPPER LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...DRY CONDITIONS...AND LIGHT
WINDS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT NEAR
THE SEASONAL AVERAGE OF 80F.

WEAK SHORTWAVES ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES GIVES SOME LEGITIMACY TO THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS THAT
PERIODICALLY APPEAR ACROSS EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI. AT THIS TIME
THE BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE FRIDAY...WITH A HIGHER LIKELIHOOD THE
FARTHER EAST YOU GO. FORECAST SOUNDINGS OFF THE GFS SHOW TOTAL CIN
EROSION AND 250 TO 500J/KG OF SB CAPE BY LATE AFTERNOON BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SO COULD SEE A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL
NOT OCCUR. IN SHORT...THE RUN TOTAL QPF FROM BOTH THE 28.00 GFS AND
ECMWF RANGES IN THE 0.05 TO 0.10 INCHES. IN REALITY...MOST LOCATIONS
WILL NOT SEE ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY PART
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

A NARROW MEANDERING NORTH TO SOUTH AXIS OF LIGHT SHOWERS EXISTS
JUST EAST OF KRWF. THEY ARE DRIFTING SLOWLY SSW (15KTS) AND WILL
BE IN THE VICINITY OF KRWF AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD. A BRIEF
DROP TO MVFR ON THE CEILING IS POSSIBLE. FARTHER NORTH...THE BACK
EDGE OF THE MAINLY OVC VFR CLOUDINESS (050) STRETCHES FROM KHCO
TO KMZH. IT IS MOVING SSW AT 18KTS WITH CLEARING (SCT-BKN)
REACHING INTO KAXN...KSTC AND KMSP BY 09Z IF NOT A LITTLE SOONER.
SCT VFR CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY (040-050) WITH TEMPORARY
BKN CONDITIONS WITH THE CU RULE QUITE NEGATIVE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN MN. WINDS WILL VARY BETWEEN NW AND NE EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH MORE OF A NW WIND NEAR 10 KNOTS FOR THE DAY AHEAD.

KMSP...SCT-BKN VFR CLOUDINESS (040-050) OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY. NE
WIND NEAR 10 KNOTS AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD BACKING TO THE
NW BY DAYBREAK AND REMAINING THERE THROUGH THE DAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

TUE...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS N 5 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...RAH





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