Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 091756
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1156 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1147 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

PRETTY STRAIGHT FORWARD WEATHER PATTERN IN THE SHORT TERM. THE
STACKED LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY TRICKLES DOWN FROM CANADA. AS A
RESULT...THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL EXPERIENCE NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. H850 TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND -15C...SO
LITTLE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE DESPITE THE FAVORABLE
NORTHERLY WIND DIRECTION.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND LITTLE TODAY FROM THIS MORNINGS
LOWS. LATER TONIGHT WINDS WILL DECREASE...AND IF THEY COMPLETELY
DECOUPLE COULD SEE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN. DECREASED LOWS SLIGHTLY IN THIS
AREA WITH DOUBLE DIGIT SUB ZERO TEMPERATURES A REAL POSSIBILITY.
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
IN WESTERN WISCONSIN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...THE PATTERN OF STOUT NW FLOW ALOFT WITH A TROF
OVER THE ERN CONUS AND A RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. A PAIR OF WEAK LOW PRES
CENTERS WILL BE DRIVEN SEWD MAINLY THRU THE NRN PLAINS REGION WITH
DENSE COLD AREAS OF HIGH PRES PUSHING THEM ALONG THE WAY. THOUGH
EACH WILL CONTAIN LIMITED MOISTURE AND CONFINE ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIP TO FAR WRN AND SRN MN...THERE IS ENOUGH APPRECIABLE MODEL
AGREEMENT TO HAVE MENTIONABLE POPS FOR EACH OF THE WED AND THU
NIGHT PERIODS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR EACH PERIOD LOOK TO BE NO
MORE THAN AN INCH. THE ARCTIC AIR SURGES WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO MIDDLE TEENS WHILE LOWS GENERALLY DROP TO BETWEEN
10 ABOVE AND 10 BELOW ZERO. THE COLDEST NIGHT WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT
WHERE LOWS MAY DROP TO AS LOW AS 15 DEGREES BELOW ZERO IN NRN AND
ERN PORTIONS OF THE WFO MPX CWFA...ALONG WITH WIND CHILLS DROPPING
TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

SATURDAY-TUESDAY...A PATTERN CHANGE FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK HAS BECOME MORE AND MORE EVIDENT ON BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF...SO IT CAN NO LONGER BE UNMENTIONABLE DUE TO PRIOR
UNCERTAINTY. THE E COAST TROF WILL SHIFT INTO THE ATLC WHILE THE
WRN RIDGE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS AND GRADUALLY FLATTENS OUT.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...A MORE ORGANIZED LOW PRES SYSTEM LOOKS TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA BUT ITS LOCATION AND TRACK IS STILL A BIT
UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER...IT DOES WARRANT THE MENTION OF POPS FOR TUE.
IN ADDITION...THE BREAKDOWN OF THE NW FLOW ALOFT AND THE APPROACH
OF THE UPR RIDGE SPELLS A BREAK IN THE WELL BELOW TEMPERATURES THE
AREA IS TO HAVE THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK. HIGHS WILL INCREASE
TO NEAR NORMAL SUN-TUE...INCLUDING HIGHS CLIMBING ABOVE THE
FREEZING MARK EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1147 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

HIGH PRESSURE AXIS THROUGH MINNESOTA TODAY KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY
CLEAR EXCEPT FOR FAR WESTERN MN. SKIES LOOK TO REMAIN CLEAR
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS WORKING IN OVERNIGHT. NW WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.

KMSP...VFR WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. NORTH WIND LESS THAN 10 KT.
THURSDAY...VFR. VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT.
THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE WITH A
CHANCE OF SNOW. WEST WIND 5 TO 10 KT.
FRIDAY...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE EARLY WITH A
CHANCE OF SNOW. NORTHWEST WIND 10 TO 20 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPD
SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...SPD


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