Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 280031

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
731 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 109 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

A band of fgen to the northwest of an MCV going across IA has a
band of light rain working up into the southern Twin Cities metro
this afternoon. This will likely spread into the Eau Claire area
through the afternoon, but dry air below 8k feet may result in
more virga/sprinkles as opposed to measurable rain, so kept PoPs
confined to no higher than the 30s.

For tonight, guidance last night showed another fgen band
developing over north central IA and building toward western WI
for tonight, but guidance this morning has really backed off on
this band of precip, pushing it southeast as strong convection
getting going down in the Ozarks that will spread toward the
Tennessee Valley will help keep the southern forcing to the south.

We are also watching northern stream energy moving south across
Saskatchewan on the southwest side of an h5 low centered over
northern Manitoba. Guidance has slowed how fast this northern
stream energy gets here tomorrow, with popup afternoon showers
Sunday looking to stay confined to mainly central MN and NW WI, so
did reduce PoPs tomorrow south of I-94. In fact, Sunday really is
not looking all that bad. NAM shows us mixing a bit above 800mb,
which will ensure frequent gusts up around 25 mph by the
afternoon, but other than that, we should see a fair amount of
sun, and mixing up to h8 will allow us to warm comfortably into
the upper 60s to lower 70s, so we should put together one more
nice day Sunday before we finally turn cooler, cloudier, and
showerier for Memorial Day.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

Not much change in the extended period with a cool period from
Sunday night through Wednesday, with a moderating trend by late in
the week, and into next weekend.

First, instability showers will form across Minnesota, and into
western Wisconsin Monday afternoon. The core of the coldest air
will move overhead Monday night, and into Tuesday before slowly
retreating to the east by midweek. Typically, the best time period
for showers/thunderstorms will occur during the mid/late afternoon
hours which will likely be the case Monday/Tuesday. Most of the
models depict the deepest moisture associated with the upper low
across northern/eastern Minnesota, and into Wisconsin. This is
also where the best chance of showers/thunderstorms will occur.
Further to the southwest in west central/southwest/south central
Minnesota, moisture depth is shallower keeping any threat on the
development of showers/thunderstorms to a minimum. Temperatures
will reflect the cooler air mass and relatively low chance of
sunshine. Upper 50s/lower 60s seem reasonable both Monday and
Tuesday afternoon, with the best chance of holding in the 50s in
central Minnesota on both days.

The mean upper air pattern will slowly become more supportive of a
warming trend by the end of the week as the persistent upper
trough moves further to the east across eastern Canada. Although
it doesn`t look like above normal temperatures past next week,
humidity levels should begin to rise as a more southerly flow


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 730 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

For precip this evening, band of rain over southeast MN into WI
will probably miss KEAU except for a few sprinkles this evening.
Late tonight, two areas of forcing. One will affect southeast MN
into WI late tonight, but this may also wind up missing KEAU.
Other area late tonight with short wave affecting northern MN may
clip KAXN over to Mille Lacs. Finally, showers and maybe a few
storms will develop Sunday afternoon to the north, associated with
another short wave rotating around upper low in Canada. Small
chance of thunder in central MN Sunday afternoon, but too small to
include that right now.

Other concern is wind Sunday. Mixing up to about 5-6K feet AGL
will result in some wnw or nw gusts around 25 kts.

KMSP...two main concerns, both midday and afternoon Sunday. Winds
will rev up during the midday hours and there is some chance gusts
will exceed the 25 knots currently in the taf. Other issue is a
small chance of showers and maybe even thunder tomorrow
afternoon, but right now the probability is too small to include
in the taf.

Mon...VFR. Chc -SHRA. Wind NW 10-20 kts.
Tue...VFR. Wind NW 10-20 kts.
Wed...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.




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