Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 291816
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1216 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE HEADLINES EARLY THIS MORNING.  THEN OVERALL
IMPROVING TREND AND TURNING COLDER.

RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME LIGHT INTENSITY ECHOES MOVING ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL MN.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING SECONDARY TROUGH
MOVING INTO WESTERN MN NOW.  THE TREND ON THE RAP HAS BEEN
GENERATING SOME LIGHT QPF INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MN THROUGH ABOUT 14Z.
NOTHING TOO DRAMATIC ON RADAR...ALTHOUGH SURFACE OBS CONTINUE TO
SHOW SOME VISIBILITY REDUCTION IN BR AND OCCASIONALLY SOME -SN OR UP.
WILL CONTINUE THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY THROUGH 12Z. WILL WORD
THAT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ENDING THIS MORNING.

THE OTHER CONCERN IS THE WIND ADV TO THE SOUTHWEST.  WINDS HAVE BEEN
INCREASING TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH.  THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST MID MORNING AS THE GREATEST PRESSURE RISE MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA.  HAVE INCLUDED A COUPLE MORE COUNTIES IN WEST CENTRAL MN AS
WELL.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERALL AFTER 18Z AND BECOME LIGHT
INTO TONIGHT.  CLOUDS WILL THIS AS WELL WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING
THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS FOR LOWS TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG
TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH ONLY MINOR/FLEETING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION FORESEEN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FRIDAY WILL BE A TALE OF TWO STORIES WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA...AS
THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH YIELDS TEMPS AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL IN THE EAST OVER WISCONSIN...AND LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION OVER THE WEST BRINGS HIGHS FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL TO WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA. EXPECT HIGH
TEMPS TO RANGE FROM 15 TO 20 DEGREES OVER WEST CENTRAL WI...TO THE
LOWER 30S ALONG THE MN RIVER VALLEY.

ON SATURDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE STICKING TO THEIR GUNS
IN PROGGING THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION TO PASS SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...AS AN INCOMING ARCTIC HIGH SUPPRESSES THE SYSTEM
LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. COULD SEE A LIGHT ROUND OF
SNOWFALL WITH INCH OR SO ACCUMULATIONS ON SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING HIGH...BUT THE MAIN /SOUTHERN STREAM/ SYSTEM
SHOULD STAY WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA.

THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL INEVITABLY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A NOTABLE
REDUCTION IN TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS FROM 5 TO 15 DEGREES ON
SUNDAY...AND SUB-ZERO LOWS OCCURRING NEARLY AREA-WIDE ON SUNDAY
NIGHT. ASSOCIATED WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT...SO DO NOT CURRENTLY
EXPECT WIND CHILLS TO DIP LOWER THAN -15 TO -20 ON SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING.

AS THE HIGH SLIPS OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST...TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY MODERATE BACK TO NORMAL AS A SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS FEATURE MAY BRING A LIGHT ROUND OF
SNOW ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...DURING WHICH 20-30
POPS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MVFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY THIN OUT LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TODAY AS WELL...BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...AND
TAKE ON A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION BY FRIDAY MORNING.

KMSP...
EXPECT A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 18-21Z TIMEFRAME.
BY EVEN CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR...WITH LIGHTER WINDS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR WITH MVFR CIGS/-SN POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT. WIND N AT 5-10KT.
SUN...VFR WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY. WIND N AT 10 KT.
MON...VFR WITH MVFR/SN POSSIBLE LATE. WINDS S AT 10G15KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JRB


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