Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 232115
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
415 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 416 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2016

The mesoscale convective vortex lifting across central MN has
successfully reinvigorated convection this afternoon. Very much a
tropical-like airmass with very efficient rainfall production,
with many areas receiving rainfall rates on the order of 1 to over 2
inches per hour. Although there has been a general downward trend
in the intensity of storms over the past hour, we are still
monitoring to the west for potential new development, given the
fair amount of clearing that has occurred. If storms do develop,
damaging winds and flooding will be the biggest threats.

Clearing occurs overnight with a mild and benign day ahead for
Sunday, as highs top out in the low to middle 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 416 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2016

The long term forecast starts out on a quiet note, but then turns
active on Tuesday and stays that way for most of the upcoming
week.

Monday brings a continuance of near normal temperatures and dry
weather. By Tuesday we see westerly flow develop aloft, with
multiple embedded shortwaves bringing occasional precipitation
chances throughout the week. Temperatures will trend downward
toward values slightly below climatological normals.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 118 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2016

The complex of showers and thunderstorms arching from west central
MN across east central MN and west central WI will affect the TAF
sites for the first few hours of this afternoon. Will likely see a
flare up of storms across west central MN on the western edge of
the showers where the clearing is ensuing. So, we are not totally
out of the woods as far as thunderstorms are concerned, so have
maintained a mention at all sites for late afternoon and/or eve.
Winds will settle down to a southeast direction for this
afternoon, speeds 12-15kts gusts to around 20kts, then shift to
the southwest this eve.

KMSP...
Expect a break in the activity for at least the first couple
hours of the TAF period, but we are seeing a renewal of strong
storms back to the west. Will be monitoring these for evolution
this afternoon.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Sun...VFR. Winds NW 10-15 kt.
Mon...VFR. Winds NW 5-10 kt.
Tue...VFR. Thunderstorms Possible. Light & Variable Wind.


&&

.MPX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for WIZ014>016.

MN...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for MNZ043>045-050-052-
     053.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...LS



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