Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 110903
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
403 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2014

SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE THE WEAKENING SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS
NORTHWEST MN THIS MORNING AND THE EVOLUTION OF THE NEXT TROUGH INTO
THE AREA LATER TONIGHT.

THE INITIAL SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS NORTHWEST MN IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN FURTHER DURING THE MORNING.  SOME LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES WORKED
INTO WEST CENTRAL MN AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT RADAR TRENDS SHOW THE
DRIER AIR TO THE EAST IS WINNING OUT AS TO EXTENT OF RAIN MOVING
FURTHER EAST.  WILL GO DRY FOR THE DAY ACROSS THE AREA.  CLOUD COVER
IS ANOTHER PROBLEM...AS SOME DRY AIR WORKED INTO CENTRAL MN...WITH A
FEW BREAKS NOTED.  THIS INITIAL BREAK SHOULD FILL BACK IN THIS
MORNING AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST.  THEN MORE CLOUDS EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY...BEFORE MORE DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE. WILL
CONTINUE A GENERAL MOSTLY CLOUDY TREND MOST AREAS AS MORE MID CLOUDS
ARE DRIVEN EAST INTO SOUTHWEST MN INTO THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
NEXT TROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S ACROSS THE AREA.

CLOUDS WILL ADVANCE OVER THE AREA AGAIN TONIGHT AND SHOULD LIMIT
SIGNIFICANT COOLING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTH.  SOME LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS MAY WORK INTO FAR SOUTHERN MN LATER TONIGHT AS FORCING MOVES
EAST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2014

THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE THE TRANSITION
TO LARGE SCALE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH OVERALL DRY
WEATHER AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS
TO START THE PERIOD ON FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVERHEAD WILL SUPPLY JUST ENOUGH H7-H6 FORCING TO GENERATE SHOWERS
ACROSS SOUTHERN MN TOWARD WEST CENTRAL WI. THE 11.00Z ECMWF WAS
FARTHER NORTH WITH THE PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE SHOULD SUPPLY AN EXTENSIVE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR...WILL
LEAN TOWARD THE 11.00Z GFS WHICH RESTRICTED THE PRECIPITATION
GENERALLY TO THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR.

THE WEEKEND APPEARS DRY AND COOL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60 TO 65
DEGREE RANGE. SATURDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE A BIT FROSTY...WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS LIKELY SETTING THE STAGE FOR THE
FIRST FROST OF THE SEASON. LOWS MODERATE A BIT BY SUNDAY MORNING
AS RETURN FLOW BRIEFLY RESUMES. LOWS IN THE 40S ARE
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER 60S WITH
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AT THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
SUPPLYING LOWERING HEIGHTS AND SOME CLOUDS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL BE AGAIN BE THE HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHERN MN TOWARD WEST
CENTRAL WI IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH.

THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE GRADUAL TEMPERATURE
MODERATION AS WESTERN RIDGING WORKS TOWARD THE CENTRAL CONUS. BY
WEDNESDAY...SHOULD SEE HIGHS CREEPING INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER
70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1034 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2014

NWRN SITES /KAXN-KSTC/ ARE ABLE TO START OUT AS VFR WHILE THE
REMAINING TAF SITES WILL START OUT AS MVFR. THE LOWER CLOUDS ARE
IN RESPONSE TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CIRCULATING AROUND A DEPARTING
LOW PRES SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS... EVENTUALLY HITTING VFR LEVELS
NOT LONG AFTER MIDNIGHT. AM EXPECTING ALL SITES TO REMAIN VFR
FROM ROUGHLY 08Z ONWARDS THROUGH THU EVE. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
APPROACHING FROM THE DAKOTAS TMRW MAY TRY TO SPREAD SOME -SHRA
INTO WRN MN BUT CHCS ARE TOO LOW FOR MENTION. WINDS WILL REMAIN
FROM THE N THROUGHOUT THIS TAF PERIOD WITH SPEEDS 10 KT OR LESS.

KMSP...MVFR CEILINGS THRU THIS EVENING...BUT WILL LOOK FOR
CEILINGS TO REMAIN ABOVE THE 1700 FT THRESHOLD. CEILINGS TO RISE
ABOVE 3000 FT IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT
THE REST OF THIS TAF PERIOD. BKN/OVC SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. CHC -SHRA. WINDS NW AT 5-10 KNOTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10 KNOTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS SW 10 KNOTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JPC





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