Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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225
FXUS63 KMPX 022122
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
322 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

HEAVIER SNOW BANDS THAT DEVELOPED ACROSS IOWA EARLIER TODAY HAVE SET
UP ACROSS THE SW TO THE NE ACROSS SOUTHERN MN WHICH AFFECTED THE
TWIN CITIES METRO AREA SHORTLY AFTER 12 PM.  LOCALLY 3-5 INCHES OF
SNOW FELL IN THESE HEAVIER SNOWFALL BANDS...WITH HIGHER AMTS NEAR
THE IOWA BORDER AS OF 3 PM. SEVERAL FACTORS LED TO THE EXPANSION OF
THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL FURTHER TO THE NW THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGH IN THE
INITIAL WINTER STORM. FIRST...A DRY SLOT WHICH WAS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS IOWA...HAD MOVED AS FAR NORTH AS SC MN WHICH LED TO LOWER
AMTS SOUTH OF THE IOWA BORDER...AND LOCALLY HEAVIER AMTS NORTH OF
THE BORDER. STRONGER FRONTOGENESIS WAS EVIDENT IN THE 85-70H
LAYER...PLUS THE ADDED AFFECT OF A VERY DEEP DENDRITIC ZONE.

AS OF 3 PM...REGIONAL RADAR HAS SEEN A VERY STRONG SIGNAL THAT THE
HEAVIER SNOWFALL MAYBE A BIT FURTHER TO THE NW ACROSS SW TO EC MN.
HAVE ALREADY EXPANDED THE WINTER STORM WARNING TO ACCOMPANY THE
HEAVIER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO THE NW OF THE TWIN CITIES METRO AREA.
NOT UNTIL THE MAIN UPPER LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHERN WI LATER TONIGHT
DOES THESE HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW BEGIN TO LESSEN...OR AT LEAST
DECREASE IN INTENSITY AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN AND THE DEPTH OF THE
DENDRITIC LAYER DECREASES. THERE MAYBE A SMALL AREA OF 12-18 INCHES
OF SNOW SOMEWHERE IN SOUTHERN MN WHERE THESE HEAVIER SNOWFALL
BANDS SET UP IN THE NEXT FEW HRS.

THE NEXT WINTER STORM PLAYER IS THE WIND SPEEDS WHICH ARE FORECAST
TO INCREASE BETWEEN NOW AND MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
WIDESPREAD BLOWING SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN COUNTIES SOUTH AND WEST
OF THE TWIN CITIES. EXPECT A SHARP DECREASE IN THE SNOWFALL AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS THE MAIN UPPER FORCING MOVES OUT OF THE REGION. LEFTOVER
LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR EC MN AND WC WI...BUT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE MINIMAL. NO OTHER
CHANGES EXPECTED THRU WEDNESDAY AFTN...WITH A SLOW DECREASE IN THE
WIND SPEED TOWARD SUNSET.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

MAIN CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS THE ARCTIC FRONT THAT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATER THIS WEEKEND. THIS FRONT
WILL BRING VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS...AND DEPENDING ON THE SNOW
PACK COULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING IN WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN MN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. IN ADDITION...COLD TEMPERATURES
WILL FOLLOW FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES
WILL BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES
ARE COLD ENOUGH WHERE THE MAJORITY OF IT SHOULD FALL AS SNOW...BUT
COULD SEE A WINTRY MIX ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE CENTERED AROUND THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...FRIDAY NIGHT...AND SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THIS
IS DO TO SEVERAL PV ANOMALIES EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION. QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW A POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACT POTENTIAL LIES AT THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS OFF THE GFS SHOW WINDS 30 TO
40 MPH...WITH GUSTS NEAR 50 MPG BEGINNING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
LASTING OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION...THE THERMAL PROFILE BECOMES
SATURATED IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...AND ALTHOUGH THERE IS NOT
MUCH OMEGA THIS WOULD STILL FAVOR LIGHT SNOW...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDS. THE EXTEND OF
THE BLOWING SNOW WILL DEPEND MOST HEAVILY ON THE CONDITION OF THE
SNOW PACK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH FOR PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL
WITH RATES OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH PER HOUR OR GREATER AT TIMES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI THIS AFTN. THE MAIN
AIRPORTS IMPACTED ARE KRWF/KMSP/KRNH/KEAU UNTIL 00Z. INITIALLY
WINDS WILL SUSTAINED AROUND 15-20 KTS... WITH GUSTS OF 24-28 KTS
THRU 21Z... AFT 21Z WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF
20-25 KTS ALONG WITH GUSTS OF 30-36 KTS ACROSS SOUTHERN
MN...ESPECIALLY IN SW/SC MN. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE
OVERNIGHT...WITH BLOWING SNOW CONTINUING THRU 12Z ALONG WITH IFR
VSBYS AT TIMES AT KRWF/KMSP/KRNH/KEAU.

KMSP...

HIGH CONFIDENCE ON MODERATE-HEAVY SNOWFALL DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON. RATES OF 3/4 OF AN INCH PER HOUR OR HIGHER WILL OCCUR
BETWEEN 1830-20Z. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER IF THESE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...BUT HIGH ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL THRU 00Z. GUSTY WINDS OF
20-24 KTS...WILL INCREASE AFT 21Z WITH GUSTS OVER 30 KTS LIKELY
DURING THE LATE AFTN AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. CONDITIONS
WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE OVERNIGHT...BUT BLOWING SNOW WILL REMAIN A
CONCERN THRU WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN IN THE IFR
OR LOWER THRU THIS EVENING ONCE SNOW DEVELOPS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

THU...MAINLY VFR. SLGT CHC MVFR/-SN. WIND SW 5-10 KTS.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. SLGT CHC MVFR/-SN. WIND S 5-10 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ014>016-
     023>028.

MN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ053-059>063-
     065>070-075>078.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ044-045-
     049>052-054>058-064.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ073-074-082>085-
     091>093.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...JLT



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