Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 070554
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1154 PM CST Wed Dec 6 2017

.Updated for 06Z Aviation Discussion...
Issued at 1132 PM CST Wed Dec 6 2017

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 145 PM CST Wed Dec 6 2017

Current water vapor imagery showing the upper trough beginning to
drop southeast across the cwa. Fairly widespread snow showers
associated with this feature and still believe it will exit the
southeast cwa around 03z or snow. Some light accumulation
possible, generally one half inch or less. Some clearing possible
behind this system into early Thursday before some mid clouds
move across. We should see overnight temperatures drop off
through the teens to some single digits as the sky clears and
winds die off some. Highs Thursday afternoon are expected remain
nearly constant to Wednesday afternoons readings.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 145 PM CST Wed Dec 6 2017

The longer term concerns remain the eastern CONUS trough and
timing and strength of resultant short waves rotating around the
Hudson Bay circulation.

Initially we have a weak trough dropping southeast over the region
into Thursday night. This will spread mainly mid/high level clouds
over the area. Temperatures shouldn`t drop off that much into
Thursday night before the next scheduled short wave arrives
Friday/Friday night. Both the GFS and ECMWF drop a rather vigorous
short wave southeast across the cwa. The best forcing remains over
the east into Friday night and we should see at least 1 to 3
inches of snow over west central Wisconsin. We increased PoPs to
high likely for now and extended higher PoPs into east central
MN.

This system exits the area Saturday and there does appear to be at
least a period of stronger northwest winds in the wake of the
system into Saturday. Brief warming is indicated ahead of the next
cold front through Sunday with another chance of mainly light
snow Sunday night into Monday.

The deterministic models diverge some on handling the
amplification of the trough to the east as the Saturday system
departs. This will leave some wider spread in the overall
temperature trend into early next week. The GFS does drop colder
air over most of the cwa for Tuesday in the wake of the Monday
cold front. We remain near the baroclinic zone through at least
midweek next week with the continuation of clipper-type systems
moving through with generally light QPF and cooler temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1132 PM CST Wed Dec 6 2017

VFR conditions throughout, but could see MVFR clouds develop
Thursday night. Northwest winds will become more westerly for
Thursday.

KMSP...
VFR conditions. Could see some MVFR clouds develop after 06Z
Thursday night with bases below 1700 ft.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Fri...MVFR with IFR/-SN possible after 21Z. Wind W-NW 10G15 kts.
Sat...VFR. Wind NW 10G15 kts.
Sun...VFR. Wind SW 10G15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JRB



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