Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 062211
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
411 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES
HEADING FOR THE GENERAL VICINITY OF THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY. THE
NRN MOST ONE IS OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA...WITH THE SRN ONE WORKING
THROUGH SRN SASKATCHEWAN. THE NRN WAVE IS ON ITS WAY TO NRN LAKE
SUPERIOR WITH AN ATTENDANT SFC LOW HEADING FOR LAKE SUPERIOR. THE
SRN WAVE WILL HEAD FOR SW MN...BUT WILL HAVE NO SFC INFLECTION.
INSTEAD...THIS SRN WAVE WILL HELP STOP THE PROGRESS OF THE WEAK COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY WORKING ACROSS SRN MN AND HELP PUSH IT BACK ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT. PRECIP POTENTIAL STILL LOOKS
FAIRLY MINIMAL...AND SHORT TERM HI-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO POINT TO
RATHER BLEAK CHANCES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE PROBLEM...AS THESE
WAVES MOISTEN THE ATMO ABOVE 10K FT...BUT NOT MUCH BELOW THAT. THE
BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE NRN
WAVE...WITH A QUICK HIT OF LIGHT SNOW LIKELY GOING OVER NRN MN.
EXISTING POPS HAD SOME SMALL POPS NORTH OF I-94 AND KEPT THOSE IN
PLACE...JUST SPED THEM UP A TAD TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH REFLECTIVITY
FORECASTS FROM THE NMM AND ARW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO
KEEP ANY PRECIP WE DO SEE IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

SATURDAY MORNING...WE WILL SEE A COLD FRONT QUICKLY SLIP THROUGH THE
AREA AS THE SFC LOW WORKS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. WILL LIKELY SEE A
BANK OF STRATOCU WORK DOWN IMMEDIATELY BEHIND IT...BUT WE SHOULD SEE
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE AS WE WORK INTO THE AFTERNOON. H85
TEMPS ONLY FALL BACK A DEGREE OR TWO CELSIUS BEHIND THE FRONT...SO
WE WILL HAVE ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS FOR TOMORROW. THE BIGGEST
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SATURDAY AND TODAY THOUGH WILL BE THE BREEZY NW
WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW TOP OF THE
MIXED CHANNEL WINDS OUT IN THE MN RIVER VALLEY UP AROUND 30 KTS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

STILL LOOKING AT A VERY MILD AND QUIET PERIOD IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. THE WARM-UP EXPECTED NEXT WEEK WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY END
UP BEING THE WARMEST AIR WE HAVE SEEN SINCE LAST OCTOBER. WE ARE
FORECASTING HIGHS IN THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS TUE-FRI...AND WE`RE
BEING CAUTIOUS. 60S ARE WELL WITHIN REACH.

THE ECMWF MOS WAS RIGHT ON THE MONEY TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPS AND IT
WAS ALSO ON THE WARMER SIDE OF AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE...IF THAT
IS TO BE THE TREND OVER THE NEXT WEEK...THEN WE ARE LIKELY YO COOL
WITH OUR TEMPERATURE GOING OUT THIS AFTERNOON. IF YOU ARE A FAN OF
WARMTH...THAT IS GOOD NEWS AND SUGGESTS A LOT OF LOCATIONS WILL
MAKE A RUN AT 60 FOR 2-3 DAYS. THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW WELL WE
MIX. THE GFS HAS A KNOWN COOL BIAS WITH TEMPS AND IT APPEARS TO BE
UNDER FORECASTING THE MIXING POTENTIAL NEXT WEEK. THE SNOW COVER
WILL BE GONE BY NEXT WEEK AND THE RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER LOCALLY
AND UPSTREAM SUGGEST FORECASTERS SHOULD LEAN TOWARD THE WARMER
MODEL GUIDANCE...LIKE THE ECMWF. HIGH TEMPS NEAR 60 WILL BE AROUND
20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE STRAIGHT 2M TEMPS OFF THE ECMWF ARE
FORECASTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S AND THE ECMWF MOS IS GENERALLY
IN THE UPPER 50S TO RIGHT AROUND 60. WE BOOSTED HIGHS TODAY AND IF
THE MODEL TREND CONTINUES TO HOLD...WE WILL LIKELY GO WARMER IN
THE DAYS TO COME.

IN TERMS OF PRECIP...THERE ISN`T MUCH GOING FOR MN/WI. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIP COMES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
THE SIGNAL IS WEAK LOCALLY WITH A WEAK NORTHERN WAVE AND WEAK
SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE THAT SPLIT THE FORECAST AREA. A DAY AGO IT
LOOKED LIKE THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WOULD MOVE OVERHEAD...BUT
THAT HAS NOW SHIFTED SOUTH AND MAY MISS THE FORECAST AREA
COMPLETELY. WE STILL HAVE CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST WITH JUST
TRACE-0.02" LIQUID...BUT WE COULD PROBABLY REMOVE THAT AT SOME
POINT. THE PROBLEM IS WE ARE TRYING TO ADVECT MOISTURE IN FROM THE
W/NW AND THAT TYPICALLY DOES NOT YIELD MUCH...MAY SOME MID CLOUDS
AND VERY LIGHT SNOW OR VIRGA IN SOUTHERN MN. SOME OF THE WRF
SOLUTIONS WE HAVE ACCESS TO GENERATE LIGHT AMOUNTS JUST TO OUR
SOUTH IN IOWA. NOT LOOKING GOOD FOR MOISTURE HERE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WILL GO ACROSS
NRN MN TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS...BUT THE LOW LEVELS LOOK TO STAY DRY ENOUGH OUTSIDE OF
NRN MN TO KEEP ALL MPX TAFS DRY. BIGGER QUESTION WITH THIS WAVE IS
WHAT WILL THE EXTENT OF MVFR STRATUS IN THE WAKE OF ITS FRONT BE.
GFSLAMP DOWNPLAYS THIS THREAT QUITE A BIT...BUT RAP CPDS SUPPORT
AT LEAST A NARROW BAND OF MVFR CIGS COMING THROUGH. TIMED 4/5 HOUR
WINDOWS FOR MVFR CIGS ALONG THE LINES OF WHAT THE RAP SHOWS.
BESIDE THE CLOUDS...IT LOOKS BREEZY IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...WITH TOP OF THE MIXING CHANNEL WINDS AT RWF UP AT
30KTS...SO BROUGHT GUSTS IN SAT MORNING AS WELL.

KMSP...HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT MSP REMAINS DRY...WITH NOTHING MORE
THAN VIRGA EXPECTED. LOW CONFIDENCE ON MVFR THREAT IN THE
MORNING...BUT BAND OF MVFR CLOUDS CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL ALBERTA
AND SASKATCHEWAN IS WHAT WOULD BE HERE IN THE MORNING IF IT CAN
HOLD TOGETHER.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. CHC MVFR CIGS/-SN. WINDS WSW TO WNW 10 KTS.
MON/TUE...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...MPG



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