Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 261813
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
113 PM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 110 PM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017

Upper level ridging just west of the Rockies will build during the
next few days and our upper level flow pattern will go from a westerly
to a northwesterly pattern. Therefore we will dry out for a few
days with very typical summer time temperatures.

A cold front/wind shift/drier airmass boundary extends from
western Lake Superior to a low pressure area in central Kansas.
Showers and thunderstorms are associated ahead and along the
boundary. Behind the boundary clearing skies, northwest winds and
lower dew points are noted. As cooler air filters in this
afternoon a few scattered low clouds will form. Skies will clear
by evening in MN with scattered clouds lingering in western WI.
High pressure will continue to build overnight and Thursday. Winds
will be light and variable over eastern WI which will lead to
patchy fog. Thinking is that winds will be just enough across most
of MN to limit fog formation. A weak wave moves through Thursday
afternoon which will trigger some scattered clouds. No appreciable
lifting mechanism to generate precipitation.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 401 AM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017

No changes from the previous forecast other than to taper off pops
with the forecast trending drier and drier for the weekend and into
early next week. No significant weather is expected in the form of
severe storms, heavy rain, or extreme heat. The GFS tries to keep a
boundary in place a cross the region and develop convection, but the
ECMWF is much drier and feel that scenario will play out in the
extended part of the forecast.

Northwest flow will develop over the central Conus. Friday and
Saturday look outstanding for those that like sunny skies, light
winds, lower humidity, and highs in the lower 80s. On Sunday a
weakening frontal boundary will move across the Dakotas and moisture
will pool along it leading to a few hundred to a thousand J/kg of
MUCAPE. There is not much forcing with this front, so not expecting
widespread convection, but there is still about a 20 percent chance
of seeing some precip an any particular location.

Looking ahead, as mentioned above the GFS lifts this boundary back
northward and keeps chances for showers and thunderstorms across
much of the area for next week. Can`t rule out the GFS, but at this
time prefer the drier solution of the ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 110 PM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017

A cold front/wind shift/drier airmass boundary extends from
western Lake Superior to a low pressure area in central Kansas.
Showers and thunderstorms are associated ahead and along the
boundary and will affect KRNH for the next hour as the boundary is
right at the terminal as of 18z. KEAU will see a couple more hours
of scattered RA. Behind the boundary clearing skies, northwest
winds and lower dew points are noted. As cooler air filters in
this afternoon a few scattered low clouds will form. Skies will
clear by evening in MN with scattered clouds lingering in western
WI. High pressure will build overnight and into Thursday. Winds
will be light and variable over eastern WI which will lead to
patchy fog. Believe KEAU will be the terminal we have the most fog
concerns with. KRNH will have to be monitored closely and KAXN.
Thinking is that wind will be just enough across most of MN to
limit fog formation. Confidence is not high regarding fog not
forming in these areas so will monitor terminals closely. A weak
wave moves through Thursday afternoon which will trigger scattered
clouds. No appreciable lifting mechanism to generate
precipitation. VFR to continue once front clears all terminals.

KMSP...

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Fri...VFR. Wind E 5 kts.
Sat...VFR. Wind S 5-10 kts.
Sun...VFR. Wind SW 5 kts. Scattered SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRL
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...DRL



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