Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 280022
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
722 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 712 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS CONVECTION TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY...AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTS FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA
ACROSS THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN SD AND NORTHWESTERN
MN THIS AFTERNOON. HIRES MODELS BRING SAID ACTIVITY INTO THE
NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA /ALEXANDRIA/ AROUND 03Z...THEN
HAVE IT REACHING THE MN/WI BORDER AROUND 07Z. THE INTENSITY OF THE
STORMS DECREASES AS THE LINE PROGRESSES SOUTHEAST...AND EXPECT IT
TO BE MORE OF A BROKEN NATURE BY THE TIME IT REACHES EAST CENTRAL
MN /TWIN CITIES/. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL PRIMARILY BE
RESTRICTED TO THE FAR NORTHWEST CWA /NEAR KAXN/ WHERE INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE GREATER.

AS THE SHORTWAVE PIVOTS INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
POSSIBLE. ATTENDANT WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND MARGINAL SHEAR WILL
LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS...AND ALSO LIMIT HEATING ON
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER WEST CENTRAL WI WHERE LOW 70S ARE
FORECAST. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL NOT BUDGE THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM
FORECAST...LEAVING SMALL AND LOW CONFIDENCE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
NEXT WEEK AS WAVE AFTER WAVE SLIDE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE
FIRST SUCH WAVE SUNDAY WILL BE TAKING STORM ACTIVITY WITH IT EARLY
SUNDAY EVENING. AFTER A LULL FOR MOST OF SUNDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL SAG SOUTH ACROSS MN/WI MONDAY. FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON
ACROSS ERN MN AND WRN WI DUE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY AND AN
UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT. LITTLE WIND SHEAR WILL FOSTER NON-SEVERE
MULTICELLS/CLUSTERS WITH POTENTIAL FOR PERHAPS SOME GUSTY WINDS
AND OUTFLOWS WHICH MAY CONTRIBUTE TO ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT.
INSTABILITY DROPS OFF TO THE WEST ACROSS WRN/SRN MN...AND STORMS
ARE FORECAST TO BE MUCH MORE ISOLATED THERE. HIGHS WILL BE HELD
BACK SOME ACROSS THE EAST WHERE STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE MOST
WIDESPREAD...BUT MID TO UPPER 80S ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WEST
WHERE 925 MB TEMPS INCREASE TO AROUND +25C. STORMS WILL DIMINISH
QUICKLY MONDAY EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING LOOK DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. COULD SEE AREAS OF FOG MONDAY NIGHT AS
WINDS DECOUPLE AND CROSSOVER TEMPS ARE REACHED LATE. LOCALLY DENSE
PATCHES ARE LIKELY IN AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE RAIN THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR STORMS ARRIVES LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT
ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL BE THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO SEE
STORMS FOR MUCH OF THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PARTS OF THE WEEK AS
THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF BUILDING THE RIDGE EASTWARD INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 712 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

MAIN THREAT IS THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONGEST IN WESTERN MN...AND
WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. SOME REDEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT CONDITIONS WILL STAY VFR OVERNIGHT
WITH THE NORTHWEST WINDS AND MODELS SHOWING LESS CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT.

KMSP...
STORMS IN WESTERN MN WILL WEAKEN AS THE MOVE EAST...SO HAVE LEFT
THUNDER OUT OF THE TAF AT MSP. THE MAIN CHALLENGE WAS TRYING TO
TIME THE WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY. USED
FORECAST MODELS...BUT MOVED UP THE TIMING BASED ON A LINEAR
EXTRAPOLATION OF THE CURRENT WIND SHIFT. SUNDAY WILL HAVE GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS AND PERHAPS A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR WITH -TSRA POSSIBLE. WINDS NNW 5-10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS NE 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR WITH -TSRA POSSIBLE. WINDS E 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...JRB



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