Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 182318

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
618 PM CDT TUE OCT 18 2016

Issued at 615 PM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016

Updated to include 00z aviation discussion below.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 341 PM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016

Most exciting thing happening during the short term is a weak cold
front currently up across central NODAK into northern MN will
work across the area tonight, exiting off to our southeast
Wednesday morning. Atmosphere is pretty dry in the wake of Mondays
front (which is now stretching from around St. Louis up into
western Quebec), so rainfall and even cloud cover will be lacking
with this front. However, a pocket of weak instability has
developed ahead of the front over central ND, with a few showers
noted on regional radar between Bismark and Fargo. RAP MUCAPE
forecast shows this pocket of instability weakening considerably
as it works toward MN, which means those showers in ND will be
quickly running out of steam as they cross into MN. As a result,
have kept the forecast dry, though a stray sprinkle or two can not
be ruled out up by Alexandria between 6pm and 10pm.

The passage of the cold front tonight will continue to chip away
at temperatures/dewpoints, with h85 temps dropping from around
+6C today to around +2C tomorrow. This will result in highs about
5 degrees colder than what we are seeing this afternoon. Did not
stray to far from SuperBlend temperatures tonight, with highs
tomorrow lowered slightly from SuperBlend values, closer to what
you get when mixing down from 900mb.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 341 PM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016

The Wednesday night through Tuesday forecast remains on track. Dry
weather is expected for nearly the entire period. Temperatures
on Thursday will be in the mid 40s to near 50, which is around 5
degrees below the seasonal average for mid-October. Temperatures
on Friday will rebound slightly, with above normal temperatures
expected Saturday through Tuesday.

Precipitation chances are near zero the entire period. A weak wave
will bring showers over the Missouri River Valley Wednesday
night, but these should stay south and west of the forecast period
so removed pops during this time frame. On Friday warm air
advection will bring a band of light rain across northern MN, but
not anticipating much if any rainfall in the Twin Cities forecast
area. Continued with a 15 to 20 percent chance, but nothing more.
Finally, the 18.12Z ECMWF has changed considerably from its 00Z
counterpart. It is much more amplified and slower with the precip
at the end of the period keeping Tuesday dry. The GFS is trending
this way as well. For now have a 30 to 50 percent chance of rain.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 615 PM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016

Solid VFR conditions expected through the next 24-30 hours with
only mid-to-high level SCT clouds expected from time to time. A
cold frontal passage is expected overnight through daybreak
tomorrow morning, resulting in winds going from WSW this evening
to light/variable overnight to NW 5-10 kt tomorrow.

KMSP...No significant weather impacts expected. Timing of frontal
passage looks to be in the 10z-14z timeframe tomorrow morning.

Thu...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.
Fri...VFR. Wind SE 5 kts.
Sat...VFR. Wind S 5 kts.


.MPX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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