Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 230306
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1006 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2016

A RELATIVELY QUIET SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR THE
AREA AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL FOR THE NEXT 18
HOURS. CLEAR SKIES FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT AND RELATIVELY
LIGHT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO COOL INTO THE 30S GENERALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94.
COULD EVEN SEE SOME PATCHY FROST UP ALONG A MORA TO LADYSMITH LINE
WHERE MID 30S ARE FORECAST. WILL HAVE INCREASING CLOUDS UP THAT WAY
TOWARD DAYBREAK HOWEVER...SO DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD FROST OR A
FREEZE. LOWS ELSEWHERE SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE AREA. THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...PLACING WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST MN IN THE WARM SECTOR. EXPECT 75-80 DEGREE READINGS ALONG
THE MN RIVER VALLEY...WITH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE MN PORTION OF THE AREA. LOW/MID 60S ARE ANTICIPATED
OVER THE WEST CENTRAL WI PORTION...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE COOLER START
TO THE DAY ALONG WITH THE IMPACTS OF MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ON
WARMING.

BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT/ADVECTION MAY
BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL/NORTHERN MN NORTH OF
THE FRONT. HAVE INCLUDED 20-30 POPS GENERALLY ALONG/NORTH OF AN
ALEXANDRIA TO ST CLOUD TO RICE LAKE WI LINE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2016

A RATHER ACTIVE LONG TERM IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION WITH RESPECT
TO RAIN CHANCES AS TWO SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE
THROUGH.

THE FIRST LOW OVER SD SATURDAY NIGHT WILL TAKE UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT
TO REACH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE INITIAL THETA-E SURGE AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS OF
MN AND WI. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE QUITE STEEP SATURDAY NIGHT
FROM MN ON WEST. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS SATURDAY EVENING ON SOUTHWARD INTO KS. THE STORMS
WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD AND BUT WEAKEN WHILE MOVING INTO WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THERE REMAINS AMPLE
ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE FA EARLY ON SUNDAY BUT THERE IS A
RATHER STOUT CAP IN THE 800-700MB LAYER. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THAT
CAP IS GONE AND ANOTHER LINE OF STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FROM
SOUTHERN MN ON SOUTHWARD THROUGH IA INTO EASTERN KS. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR A SEVERE STORM OR TWO NEAR THE IA BORDER WITH BETTER
CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER FARTHER SOUTHWARD.

SUNDAY ALSO HAS A RATHER LARGE BUST POTENTIAL ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES...MAINLY FROM THE TWIN CITIES ON NORTH AND EAST DUE
THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE WARM FRONT ALONG WITH THE AMOUNT OF
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. BLENDED GUIDANCE TRENDS HAVE MOVED DOWNWARD
WITH THE HIGH BY SEVERAL DEGREES FOR THE TWIN CITIES FOR SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...A LOOK AT THE SREF PLUMES SHOWS THAT A FEW REALLY LOW
MEMBERS HAVE BIASED THE MEAN WITH A MAJORITY OF MEMBERS IN THE 70
T0 75 DEGREE RANGE. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GEFS PLUMES ARE
BIASED ON THE COLD SIDE (65 DEGREES OR LOWER) WITH ONLY A FEW
MEMBERS IN THE 70 TO 75 DEGREE RANGE. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH A
HIGH OF 71...WHICH IS CLOSE THE THE NAMNEST OUTPUT. UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S WILL BE JUST TO OUR NORTH IN CENTRAL MN WHILE MIDDLE 70S
ARE ALONG THE I-90 CORRIDOR. LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ARE IN
PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE SURFACE
LOW MOVES THROUGH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND A HALF INCH IN THE MN RIVER VALLEY
TO A LITTLE OVER AN INCH FROM THE TWIN CITIES ON NORTH AND EAST.

A SMALL REPRIEVE FROM THE RAIN ARRIVES ON TUESDAY AS A WEAK RIDGE
OF PRESSURE MOVES BY. THEN ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...SIMILAR
IN TRACK TO THE ONE THIS WEEKEND...WILL BRING MORE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION FROM TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. LIKELY POPS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR WEDNESDAY WITH
RAIN AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH TO ONE INCH FOR THE DAY. DRY WEATHER
WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE IN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH YET
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING BY NEXT WEEKEND.

THE WARMEST DAY IN THE LONG TERM IS SUNDAY WITH 70S FROM THE TWIN
CITIES ON WEST AND SOUTH. HIGHS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 40S
TO UPPER 50S THEREAFTER FOR MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. AS FOR
LOWS...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR FROST OR FREEZE CONDITIONS
ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND ADJOINING AREAS OF WEST CENTRAL WI TUESDAY
MORNING AND AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING AS CLEARING OCCURS IN THE WAKE OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1003 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2016

RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD AHEAD...VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH OUT THE
PERIOD. WARM AIR ADVECTION ENSUES THROUGH TOMORROW AHEAD OF
APPROACHING SYSTEM. NAM IS THE MOST BULLISH ON SATURATING THE LOW
LEVELS. LEANED MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH SCT LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS.
WINDS WILL TURN SOUTH AND INCREASE 10-20KTS WITH GUSTS 20+
POSSIBLE. MAIN PRECIP AREA LOOKS NORTH OF I-94...SO LEFT PRECIP
MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW.

KMSP...NO CHANGE FROM THE MAIN DISCUSSION.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...MVFR/IFR WITH -SHRA/TS. WIND ESE 10-15KTS.
MON...MVFR/IFR WITH -SHRA. WIND NE 10-15KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS E 10-15KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...SPD



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