Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 160942
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
342 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 343 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2017

Stratus clouds trapped under the ridge will linger this morning,
scattering out for the afternoon as southeasterly flow strengthens
ahead of a High Plains trough. Despite the clearing of the low
clouds, peeks of the sun will likely be few and far between, given
mid/high clouds will be encroaching the area from the west as low
level moisture/warm air advection ensues ahead of the
aforementioned trough. Expect another day with temperatures
running below normal for mid-November. Highs will range from 35
to 40 degrees.

Late tonight weak lift develops generally north of Interstate 94 as
the warm front lifts toward central MN. Have included a 20 POP for
Rain/Snow after 06z Friday, but it could end up being more of a
drizzle scenario.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 343 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2017

A rather repetitive weather pattern is expected during the extended
and into Thanksgiving weekend, with two mild days, followed by two
cold days, then two warm days and so forth. Lacking in all of this
will be chances for precipitation, with a prolonged dry stretch of
weather expected after Friday.

We start the long term in one of those warm periods. However, this
will be the cloudy and drizzle filled version of a warm day like we
saw Tuesday, as dewpoints increasing into the 40s with the cold
ground will ensure we see more low stratus. Also like Tuesday,
forecast soundings show us lacking moisture in the DGZ, with a
nearly 5k foot deep moist layer near the surface, so more fun with
drizzle. Any chance at non drizzle will have to wait until Friday
night as the main upper trough swings through the area. By then
though, the surface low we be beginning its deepening phase down
near Chicago, which means just as the deep moisture arrives, the
forcing is pulling out. The net result is that QPF amounts look
limited once again, with precipitation gradually changing over to
snow from west to east Friday night.

For the weekend, it`s a repeat of what we saw Wednesday and are
expecting today, though with one difference and that`s that we
should actually get to the see the sun.  The combination of CAA and
isallobaric forcing will result in breezy northwest winds Friday
night, that will keep going into the day Friday as we add in some
diabatic heating and mixing. Winds will die off Saturday night and
turn to the southwest on Sunday, with warmer air starting to return,
which will lead us to our next warm day on Monday.

Monday`s version of a warm day looks to have a different feel to
what we saw Tuesday and are expecting Friday. As opposed to seeing
dewpoints climb into the 40s, resulting in dense stratus, Monday will
feature dewpoints in the 20s, which means we will have the
opportunity to see the sun with the warm weather. As a result,
Monday also has the potential to be considerably warmer than Tuesday
and Friday, especially given the favorable southwest wind direction
for going warmer. As a result, followed the previous shift in
raising highs for Monday a few degrees above blended guidance, with
low 50s from west central into south central MN, though there is
certainly potential we`ll need to go higher.

This warmth will be in response to warm air surging north ahead of a
cold front that will clear our area Monday night, ushering in
another period of strong northwest winds and tumbling temperatures
for Tuesday, though we look to get on the backside of the high
Wednesday with WAA beginning on Wednesday resulting in mild
temperatures for Thursday into Friday. There is a mention of precip
on Thursday and this is really based on the GFS, which has a clipper
system working down I-94. The ECMWF/Canadian have something similar,
only they have the precip clear up in southern Canada, so this
chance may very well disappear in the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1020 PM CST Wed Nov 15 2017

Low stratus still hanging tough across central-southern MN into
western WI with little indication it will dissipate through the
overnight period. Have maintained MVFR ceilings at all sites
although isolated pockets of IFR ceilings have been reported,
mainly near and including KAXN. Ceilings likely to rise to VFR
after daybreak tomorrow still with at least BKN coverage. Then
ceilings will likely remain through tomorrow afternoon while
rising to between 7-12 kft. NW winds will settle down to 5-10kt
into the early morning hours then become light/variable as high
pressure moves atop the region overnight. Winds will then pick up
from the SE and become breezy tomorrow afternoon.

KMSP...Ceilings are expected to remain above 1700ft (although it
will be close) but MVFR ceilings will remain in place through the
overnight hours and potentially through the Thursday morning
push. No visibility restrictions or precipitation expected.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Fri...MVFR with chance -DZ. Wind S becoming NW 5-15 kts.
Sat...VFR with MVFR early. Wind NW 10-20 kts.
Sun...VFR. Wind W at 10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...JPC


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