Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 131046
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
546 AM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 408 AM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017

Early this morning a cold front was along a line from New Ulm,
northeast to the western part of the Twin Cities, and near Mora.
Behind the front, gusty winds develop temporarily from the
northwest. Ahead of the front, some low clouds and patchy drizzle
was noted in west central Wisconsin, mainly north of Rice Lake to
Ladysmith. Satellite imagery does indicate an increase area of mid
level moisture streaming northeast across the Upper Midwest along
with some elevated radar returns in Nebraska and South Dakota. As of
3 am, no precipitation had been reported at the ground, or at least
not from local airport observations.

Today`s forecast is dependent on the amount of moisture below 8k as
ample lift was noted from the 25H jet aloft, and isentropic lift
between 85-70H in Nebraska. Some of the short term models indicated
that moisture /85-70H/ will rapidly increase this morning along the
stronger isentropic lift across Nebraska, and Iowa. This increasing
moisture component and the added mid-level short wave and associated
moisture across South Dakota, should be enough to warrant light
rain/sprinkles from south central Minnesota, to west central
Wisconsin. Further to the north, moisture depth is less and if
anything develops, it should be more virga than light rain. This
weather system should quickly move off to the east/southeast by the
late afternoon with mainly clear skies overnight.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 408 AM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017

A trough will approach from the Rockies early Saturday and spawn
an area of low pressure over the central Plains. As the system
encounters moistening isentropic upglide over the Midwest, rain is
expected to develop rapidly along a quasi stationary front to the
south along I-80 and along the leading edge of the trough over
the Dakotas Saturday morning. The rain shield will fill in by
Saturday afternoon across southern MN due to these features
phasing and the surface system maturing. The rain shield will lift
northeast before the deformation band reaches maturity, so
amounts will be light. Colder air behind the system Saturday night
could allow for a few snowflakes across western and central MN,
but it appears any steady precip will be well east by that time
with mid level dry air also pushing in.

A chilly Sunday and Sunday night will be followed by a very
tranquil and mild period across the vast majority of the CONUS
for next week. A large ridge will develop across the south,
shifting the storm track to the Pacific Northwest and Canada. This
will prevent any cold air intrusions from reaching this far south
until perhaps next weekend. Southerly surface flow will keep lows
in the 40s and 50s and highs in the 60s and maybe 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 540 AM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017

MVFR cigs near KEAU will exit the area by 14-15z. Otherwise, clouds
will begin to increase and lower this morning across Minnesota
with cigs dropping to around 6-8k along the Iowa border. Light
rain is also likely by late morning along the Iowa border, with
VCSH as far north as KMKT/KMSP by 16-18z. The precipitation will
be light and not affect vsby. Winds will become north by late in
the day and more northeast/east Saturday morning.

KMSP...

VCSH looks reasonable by mid/late morning as a weather system
organizes across Nebraska and moves northeast along the Iowa
border this afternoon. Cigs will lower to 8k with some lower
clouds if precipitation becomes a little heavier. Winds will
become north/northeast overnight and more east/northeast Saturday
morning. Light rain is likely after this taf period.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

Sat aftn...MVFR with SHRA likely. Wind ENE 5-10 kts.
Sun...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.
Mon...VFR. Wind SW 5-10 kts

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...JLT



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