Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 040326 AAB
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
926 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 926 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

LATEST HI-RES MODELS AND THE 00Z NAM INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A
QUICK HITTING BURST OF HEAVY SNOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE ALONG
I-94 FROM LATE TONIGHT OVER WRN MN...TO THE METRO DURING RUSH
HOUR...AND WEST CENTRAL WI BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. STRONG
LIFT AND DEEP SATURATION WILL ACCOMPANY A COMPACT AND POTENT VORT
ROTATING ESEWD ACROSS THIS CORRIDOR. BECAUSE THIS IS A SMALL
FEATURE...IT PROBABLY IS NOT BEING RESOLVED ADEQUATELY ON THE
CORSER MODELS. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD IT PRETTY WELL
PEGGED ALREADY...BUT INCREASED QPF AND POPS A BIT IN THAT AREA
GIVEN THE CONVERGING MODEL SOLUTIONS WHICH IS NOW YIELDING 1-2
INCHES. MAJOR IMPACTS TO THE MORNING RUSH ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN
EXPECTED RATES OF MAYBE AN INCH PER HOUR FOR A BRIEF TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT RISES...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...AND CLEARING
SKIES WERE WIDESPREAD ACROSS MN/WI IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAYS SNOW
STORM. HOWEVER...A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH AND BRING
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LESS THAN AN INCH.

EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED CLEARING SKIES WITH A FRESH
SNOWPACK ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK STRIP OF POSITIVE VORTICITY
EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER WESTERN CANADA
WILL CONGEAL INTO A TIGHTER PV ANOMALY AS IS MOVES ACROSS THE
MIDWEST TOMORROW. ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL LEAD TO SATURATION...AND
THE THERMAL PROFILE SUPPORTS LIGHT SNOW GENERALLY ALONG THE I-94
CORRIDOR. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...SO NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH MORE
THAN AN INCH OF SNOW AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE WAVE...AND THEN TAKE ON A NORTHWESTERLY
DIRECTION ONCE IT PASSES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

TWO SHORT WAVES AND ASSOCIATED COLD/WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST IS
RATHER WEAK AND MOST OF THE ENERGY WILL BE TRANSFERRED WITH THE
SOUTHERN JET STREAM LEAVING OUR REGION RELATIVELY DRY AND
UNEVENTFUL. THE SECOND SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY AFTN. ALTHOUGH MODELS HAVE BEEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON THE MEAN UPPER FLOW...THERE HAS BEEN A TREND
FOR A STRONGER WAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST GFS IS MUCH STRONGER AND HAS A FAIRLY
POTENT 50H JET STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE.
THEREFORE...IT HAS MORE QPF ACROSS MPX CWA VS. THE EC. ALSO THE
CANADIAN MODEL IS SIMILAR TO THE GFS WITH HIGHER QPF TOTALS ACROSS
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. THE COMPARISON TO THE EC MODEL IS THAT THE SHORT
WAVE IS MUCH FURTHER NORTH AND DRIER THAN BOTH THE GFS/GEM. LIKE
ALWAYS...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR... BUT THE BEST SCENARIO IS TO
LEAVE ONLY CHANCE POPS FOR THIS SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND.

AGAIN... THESE SYSTEMS ARE NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY TYPE
OF WX HAZARDS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THERE IS A STRONGER
CORRELATION IN THE MODELS FOR A COLDER PERIOD DEVELOPING BY THE
END NEXT WEEK. THE FORECAST TELECONNECTION INDICES OF THE PNA/NAO
AND EPO ALL SUPPORT A COOLER WX PATTERN STARTING AROUND THE 8 OR 9
OF FEB. BASED ON 85H TEMPS LATE NEXT WEEK...WE COULD SEE ANOTHER
ROUND OF BELOW ZERO TEMPS...AT LEAST FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS EVENING...BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW
WILL TRACK ACROSS LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TOUGH TO SAY WHERE
THE HEAVIEST WILL FALL AT THIS POINT SINCE THE WAVE SEEMS TO BE
COMING IN PIECES AND HI-RES MODELS ARE NOT EXACTLY IN THE BEST
AGREEMENT. DID NOT CHANGE TOO MUCH WITH THIS SET OF TAFS AND KEPT
THEM MORE GENERIC. COULD SEE BOUTS OF IFR CONDITIONS WITH THE MORE
INTENSE SNOW SHOWERS.

KMSP...STILL APPEARS 13-17Z IS THE BEST TIME FOR THE MOST INTENSE
SNOW AND A HALF TO ONE INCH SHOULD FALL BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...MAINLY VFR. SLGT CHC MVFR/-SN. WIND SW 5-10 KTS.
SAT...MAINLY VFR. WIND SW/S 5 TO 10 KTS.
SUN...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR-IFR/-SN. WIND SW 5-10 KTS...BECOMING NW
LATE AT 25G35KT.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BORGHOFF
SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...BORGHOFF


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