Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 171759 AAB
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1259 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 421 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

EARLY THIS MORNING...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS OBVIOUS IN BOTH
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND REFLECTIVITY OVER NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA. A
LOOP OF THE REFLECTIVITY REVEALS THE COUNTER-CLOCKWISE ROTATING
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA...AND INTO WISCONSIN. THE COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW /EAST OF THE UPPER LOW/ IS WELL
EAST OF THE FA AT THIS TIME.  BEING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE COLD
FRONT AND UPPER LOW...TODAY WILL BRING QUITE A CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY
WHERE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHED THE LOW 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FA. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION...OVERCAST SKIES...AND BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS CAN ALL BE EXPECTED TODAY.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ALMOST 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AS EARLY MORNING LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY RECOVER 5 DEGREES OR SO.  WITH THE TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT MOVING IN...NW WINDS OF 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER
30 MPH /HIGHEST WEST...LOWEST EAST/ ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY.
THE POPS WERE LARGELY UNCHANGED...JUST A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO THE
COVERAGE OF SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
DEVELOPING WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH AND FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR
FA /CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI/...AS THIS AREA LOOKS TO BE THE
FOCUS OF FORCING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH. AS THIS
FEATURE CONTINUES EAST...THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL END FROM WEST
TO EAST.  THE FA SHOULD BE ESSENTIALLY PRECIP FREE AFTER 00Z WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE IN A SMALL PORTION OF WEST CENTRAL
WI.

THE MAIN CHANGE THAT WAS MADE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO EXTEND THE
OVERCAST SKIES OUT SEVERAL HOURS.  LATEST GUIDANCE HAS LOCKED ON TO
THE IDEA OF MOST OF THE AREA REMAINING LOCKED UNDER BROKEN TO
OVERCAST SKIES RIGHT THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...MEANING THE CLEARING
LINE OF THE CLOUD DECK ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE DELAYED
BY SEVERAL HOURS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS. I SEE NO REASON TO
DISAGREE WITH THIS SENTIMENT AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE CYCLONICALLY
CURVED FLOW LINGERING THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL START OFF ON A COOL
NOTE...AND THEN A BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGE BRINGS DRY WEATHER AND
MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

SATURDAY SHOULD SEE CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...WITH
TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW/MID 50S.

ON SUNDAY...RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN
MANITOBA. TEMPERATURES RECOVER BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS...
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60-70 DEGREE RANGE OVER ALL BUT THE WI PORTION
OF THE AREA. THE AFOREMENTIONED FEATURE DIVES SOUTH AND EAST
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BUT THE BEST
FORCING/MOISTURE IS DISPLACED TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE AREA.
DID INCLUDE 20 POPS EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 /EAU CLAIRE/...WHERE THE
FORCING/MOISTURE IS BETTER.

AN OMEGA-BLOCK PATTERN DEVELOPS BY MONDAY...AND PERSISTS THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 55 TO 65 DEGREE RANGE.

BY LATE NEXT WEEK...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE. TEMPORAL UNCERTAINTIES ARE STILL
NOTABLE...BUT GFS AND ECMWF AGREEMENT WAS SUFFICIENT TO HOLD ONTO
A 20 POP FOR THURSDAY AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

ASIDE FROM A FEW HOURS OF VFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON AND/OR
EVENING...MAINLY MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MID
MORNING SATURDAY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR OVER WESTERN WI THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THERE SHOULD NOT BE ANY SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. DRIER AIR WILL PUSH IN SATURDAY
LEADING TO CLEARING SKIES BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

KMSP...VFR CONDITIONS TO START...BUT THERE ARE MANY REPORTS OF
MVFR CIGS TO THE NORTH WHICH WILL ROTATE BACK IN THIS EVENING.
CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH CIGS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 1700 FT TONIGHT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. WINDS SW 10-15 KTS.
MON...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS SE 5-10 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...BORGHOFF





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