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000
FXUS63 KMQT 211005
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
605 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER SD WITH AN
ASSOCIATED TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...A 500 MB
RIDGE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
THE 500 MB LOW MOVES SLOWLY SE THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.

COMPLICATED FORECAST AGAIN TODAY COMPLICATED FURTHER BY A
SIGNIFICANT DATA OUTAGE THAT AFFECTED OBS AND COMPUTER PERFORMANCE.
ANYWAY...TRYING TO TIME OUT SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH AND KICKING
OFF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BE TOUGH. THERE WILL BE A WAVE OF
CONVECTION GOING THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN MAY SEE A BRIEF
BREAK BEFORE MORE REDEVELOPMENT AS THE MORNING GOES ON. THINK THE
REDEVELOPMENT WILL BE SCATTERED POPS THIS AFTERNOON. WILL START OFF
WITH CATEGORICAL TO LIKELY POPS EARLY THIS MORNING THOUGH. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...AGAIN ANY SUNSHINE THAT OCCURS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
LEAD TO A BIG FORECAST BUST. THINKING IS THERE COULD BE A LITTLE
SUNSHINE ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER...BUT SHOULD NOT LAST THAT LONG
TO AFFECT TEMPERATURES THAT MUCH. DID KEEP LOWER 70S FOR HIGHS TODAY
IN THAT AREA WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ELSEWHERE...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE GREAT LAKES SHORELINES. CHANCE POPS FOR TONIGHT LOOK TO CONTINUE
AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS FURTHER AND STARTS TO DROP A BIT SOUTHWARD
WITH TIME. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR
TEMPERATURES EXCEPT TO LOWER THEM A BIT NEAR THE LAKESHORE AREAS AS
WATER TEMPERATURES ARE STILL PRETTY COLD. AS FOR FOG...KEPT THE
ADVISORY GOING IN THE KEWEENAW THIS MORNING AS CONDITIONS DO NOT
CHANGE MUCH WITH UPSLOPE MOIST FLOW OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. RAIN THAT
FALLS INTO LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE UPSLOPE FOG THERE
FOR AT LEAST THIS MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 604 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

MUCH OF THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE MARKED BY THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE...OR THE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE HIGH PUSHING ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. COOLER...BUT MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL RESULT.

INCREASED NW WINDS FOR THURSDAY/THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS IN
THE 20-25KT RANGE OVER MAIN CENTRAL...GIVEN THE STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE EXITING SFC LOW STRETCHED FROM OH THROUGH
NORTHERN ME...AND THE 1027MB/30.3IN RIDGE CROSSING WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR AND WESTERN UPPER MI. EXPECT WINDS WILL DIMINISH WEST TO
EAST THURSDAY EVENING THE RIDGE PUSHES OVERHEAD LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY.

OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES INCLUDE GETTING RID OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
NEAR THE WI BORDER OVER THE WEEKEND...AND CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST
UNTIL MONDAY/MEMORIAL DAY. OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES INCLUDE GETTING
RID OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NEAR THE WI BORDER OVER THE WEEKEND...AND
CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST UNTIL MONDAY/MEMORIAL DAY...EVEN WITH TRICKY
NW FLOW ALOFT FROM THURSDAY THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. SFC TEMPS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR...MID TO UPPER 60S WITH A FEW 70 DEGREE READINGS SW TOWARD
THE WI BORDER.

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT WILL HAVE A
DIFFICULT TIME MOVING EASTWARD UNTIL THE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 753 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

AVIATION FCST WILL CONTINUE TO BE CHALLENING THRU THIS PERIOD. WITH
EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS DOMINATING AT KCMX THRU THE NIGHT...VLIFR
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO PREVAIL. MAY SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT
TUE MORNING AND MAYBE MORE SO TUE AFTN AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS BACK A
LITTLE MORE TO THE NE AND DIMINISH THE UPSLOPING. EXPECT SOME SHRA
AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING AND THEN TUE MORNING. AT KIWD...
SHRA OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS WILL RESULT IN OCNL MVFR CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD FALL TO MVFR THAN IFR OVERNIGHT AS
WINDS SHIFT TO THE NE...BRINGING COOL/MOIST AIR OFF LAKE SUPERIOR.
MAY SEE IMPROVEMENT TO LOW MVFR TUE AFTN. AT KSAW...STRATUS PATCHES
LURKING TO THE E AND SE SHOULD SPREAD/EXPAND NW THIS EVENING AS
DAYTIME HEATING COMES TO AN END. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO FALL TO MVFR
THEN IFR BY MID/LATE EVENING. PERIOD OF SHRA/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR LATE TONIGHT/TUE MORNING AS DISTURBANCE LIFTS NE INTO THE
UPPER LAKES. WITH NE WINDS DURING THE DAY TUE...MAY NOT SEE
CONDITIONS IMPROVE ABOVE IFR AT KSAW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

THE MAIN THREATS THROUGH THE PERIOD MARINE WISE WILL BE THE NW WINDS
FUNNELING OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH GUSTS OF 20-30KTS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE SECOND THREAT WILL BE THE CONTINUED FOG
THAT WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHEN DRIER AIR
WORKS IN FROM THE NNW.

LOW PRESSURE OVER S MINNESOTA WILL CROSS INTO WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING...BEFORE EXITING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN
AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN THE
MEANTIME STRONG...DRY...AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE OVER N CANADA IS
EXPECTED TO SINK SOUTHWARD. THE RESULT WILL BE LIGHTER WINDS AS A
RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY AND BUILDS SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY. THE
RIDGE WILL LIKELY LINGER ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ001-003.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ243>249-
     263>267.

  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
     LSZ162.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR LSZ162.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KF