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000
FXUS63 KMQT 171749
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
149 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 527 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

09Z WATER VAPOR LOOP REVEALS A NW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES OF NOTE. ONE SHORTWAVE IS MOVING
THROUGH NRN ONTARIO AND BRUSHING NE LAKE SUPERIOR LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
HAVE MINIMAL OR NO IMPACT ON OUR CWA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS SLIDING
JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH NRN WI WITH STILL ANOTHER UPSTREAM
OVER NW MN. SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH NRN WI AND ASSOC DPVA AND WEAK
850 MB FGEN FORCING IS SUPPORTING AREA OF SHRA OVER NRN WI AND
SCNTRL UPR MI ALONG AXIS OF MARGINAL MUCAPE OF 100-200 J/KG.

TODAY...MODEL Q-VECT CONV SUGGESTS MUCH OF THE ENERGY/LIFT FROM
ABOVE MENTIONED SHORTWAVES ALONG WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY FOR SHRA
AND ISOLD TSRA DEVELOPMENT WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG THE WI BDR AND JUST
TO THE SOUTH. THUS...WILL CONFINE 30 PCT CHC POPS TODAY ALONG THE WI
BDR AND BAY OF GREEN BAY COUNTIES WHILE QUICKLY TAPERING TO SLIGHT
CHC POPS OR DRY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH AWAY FM THE BETTER FORCING.
LOW CLOUDS AS NOTED ON IR SATELLITE WILL LIKELY REMAIN ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING AS MAY BE ENHANCED OVER HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG LAKE
SUPERIOR IN UPSLOPE NE FLOW. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED
TO BUILD OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS ASSOC DRIER AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE ERODE CLOUDS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. HIGHS WILL BE MUCH
COOLER TODAY...WITH 60S IN MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR WHERE NORTHERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKE WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S.

TONIGHT...A CHILLY NIGHT IS ON TAP AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE
UPPER LAKES. WITH VERY DRY COLUMN (PRECIPITABLE WATER 30-50PCT OF
NORMAL) AND WINDS DIMINISHING TO LIGHT/CALM...WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR
THE LOW END OF MODEL GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE W
WHERE SFC HIGH PRES CENTER WILL BE ARRIVING DURING THE NIGHT. WITH
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...THERE IS A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR
SOME FROST IN THE USUAL COLDER AREAS. SOME OF THE TRADITIONAL COLD
SPOTS COULD FALL TO NEAR FREEZING AND A FROST ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED
OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR PORTION OF THE CWA. RECORD LOW FOR NWS MQT
SITE ON THE 18TH IS 38F. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT RECORD COULD
BE TIED OR BROKEN.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 527 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

TAKING A LOOK AT FCST SOUNDINGS...TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
SHOULD BE PRETTY DRY WITH LITTLE TO NO CLOUDS IN THE SKY. WILL KEEP
THE 0 POPS GOING. OTHER THAN THE TYPICAL LAKE BREEZES...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. WILL LIKELY BE
ABLE TO MIX UP TO 800MB...OR HIGHER...RESULTING IN AFTERNOON RH
VALUES IN THE 20 PERCENT RANGE FOR MOST OF UPPER MI...FIRE CONCERNS
SHOULD REMAIN IN CHECK HOWEVER WITH THE RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS.

EXPECT THE WARMING TREND TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH INCREASED
W-SW FLOW THROUGH 750MB...AS THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES. 850MB TEMPS SHOULD RISE FROM A CWA AVERAGE OF 7C
TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO AROUND 12C BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH NW
FLOW ALOFT...EXPECT A FEW PESKY WAVES IN THE MEAN FLOW TO SLIDE
ACROSS THE CWA. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT ONE WILL LINE UP WITH THE
NEARING OF A WEAK SFC LOW PUSHING OVER ONTARIO WEDNESDAY...AND INTO
QUEBEC LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE WEAK COLD FRONT
SHOULD BE PRETTY WASHED OUT AS IT NEARS LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MN AND
WESTERN WI WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY BE WINDING DOWN AS THEY
HEAD TOWARD UPPER MI. 200-500 J/KG CAPE VALUES OVER FAR W UPPER MI
BETWEEN 18Z WED AND 00Z THUR SHOULD BE ALL BUT GONE BY 06Z THURSDAY.
MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE VERY LIMITED...WITH ANY GOLF MOISTURE STUCK
ACROSS THE GULF STATES. EXPECT THE WEAK COLD FRONT TO SINK SOUTH OF
THE CWA BY THE END OF THE DAY THURSDAY. THE MAIN RESULT WILL BE
CLOUD COVER AND A WIND SHIFT...AND EVEN THROUGH WE DO HAVE 30-40
PERCENT POPS THEY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LOW AMOUNTS OF PRECIP WITH
AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS EXPECTED FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE SET UP ACROSS MUCH OF N AND CENTRAL ONTARIO THURSDAY
MORNING WILL EXTEND A RIDGE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR BY LATE THURSDAY
MORNING...AND MUCH OF THE CWA BY 00Z FRIDAY. THE 500MB RIDGE ACROSS
THE PLAINS STATES WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THURSDAY...IN ADVANCE OF
THE 500MB LOW STUCK SPINNING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AND SFC
LOW ORGANIZING OFF THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT. WENT AHEAD AND
BROKE UP THE THURSDAY NIGHT PERIOD TO INCLUDE A BIT MORE DRYING
WEATHER THURSDAY EVENING.

THE CLOSEST THE SFC LOW WILL LIKELY GET TO UPPER MI WILL BE MN AND S
WI...ON SATURDAY. STILL...MUCH OF OUR WEATHER FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WILL REVOLVED AROUND THE 500MB FLOW WITH SEVERAL SMALLER
SCALE DISTURBANCES RESULTING IN A FEW TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THEY WILL REMAIN
DIFFICULT TO TIME UNTIL WE GET CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 148 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

EXPECT ANY LINGERING LOWER CIGS AT SAW AND IWD TO LIFT BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL DRYING MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 527 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW 20KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL REMAIN
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK TROUGH WILL THEN APPROACH THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST FOR THURSDAY. THERE IS A POCKET OF FOG OVER WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT EXPECT THE FOG TO ERODE AS
DRIER AIRMASS ADVECTS IN FM THE NORTH.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS