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000
FXUS63 KMQT 181839
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
239 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another round of light rain showers develops this evening and
through the first half of the night, mainly across the central and
eastern UP.

- Cooler temps Friday and Saturday with low (30%) chances for light
diurnal showers this afternoon/evening and perhaps a light lake
effect rain/snow mix for Friday/Saturday.
- Some localized fire wx concerns could resurface again Friday into
Saturday with more widespread concerns Sunday and Monday as a drier
airmass moves in with breezy W to NW winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 239 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

The surface low that has brought rounds of rain over the past couple
of days has moved north of Lake Superior with weak ridging in its
wake. Aloft, broad troughing centered over the Canadian Prairies
continues to send weak shortwaves out of the Plains. One of these is
currently moving through central WI, touching off another round of
light rain showers. Water vapor shows an impressive dry slot across
eastern MN/western Lake Superior/far western Upper Michigan, while
surface observations indicate a diffuse frontal boundary draped over
the area. That is all to say that additional PoPs associated with
the shortwave moving through WI should stay contained to the central
and eastern UP. Weak radar returns have been streaming into the
south-central UP for most of the afternoon, but nothing appears to
be reaching the ground with just lingering lower to midlevel cloud
cover. However, will not rule out some sprinkles and light rain
showers this afternoon and evening. Otherwise, temperatures
seem to be behaving, hovering in the upper 40s and lower 50s
across most of the area. Where we can see some breaks in the
clouds, temperatures may be able to peak a couple degrees higher
in the mid 50s.

Tonight, the weak cold front off to our west moves through the UP,
while the right entrance region of an upper jet core slides over the
area. This may expand the coverage of rain showers, though rain
totals stay light; model soundings over the eastern half of the UP
only briefly moisten up enough at lower levels for my liking, and
the grand ensemble has a 70-100% chance for rain totals below a
quarter inch and around a 50% chance for totals less than a tenth of
an inch where we do pick up rain showers overnight. With a cooler
airmass moving in, expect temperatures to fall back more than last
night with lows ranging generally in the lower to mid 30s. Our
typically cooler spots throughout the western UP, where we`ll also
stand the best chance for skies to clear out, may drop into the 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 347 AM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

The extended period is looking to be fairly calm, although we could
see some showers tonight, Friday into Saturday, and early next week.
Drier lower levels Friday through this weekend into early next week
could lead to some fire weather concerns, particularly Sunday when
min RHs get down into the mid 20 percents. Overall, temps are
looking to be around normal to above normal, but tonight through
Saturday are looking to be below normal. Additional details on the
forecast follow below.

The last of the rain showers associated with the shortwave low
moving through the Midwest into southern Ontario tonight
progressively end over the eastern U.P.. Meanwhile, a cold front
from a low over northern Ontario continues eastwards across our area
tonight. As the cooler and drier air behind the front works its way
across the U.P., the cloud cover decreases. This will allow temps to
drop down into the low to mid 30s across the interior areas of the
U.P. tonight; we even have a 20 to 30% chance of seeing lows drop
into the upper 20s across the interior west. As delta-Ts get to
around 12C by dawn Friday, expect to see some lake-effect cloud
cover developing over the WNW snow belts from west to east. With the
help of some upslope enhancement, we could (30 to 50% chance) see
some light lake-effect/diurnally forced snow showers across the WNW
snow belts, mainly in the higher terrain areas of the interior west;
the eastern U.P.`s WNW snow belts may have more of a rain/snow mix
or just light rain. As the cold air advection continues behind the
front Friday night, the light showers continue across the WNW snow
belts. As ridging and warmer air begin to move in Saturday, the
showers end. Ultimately, nothing more than a light dusting is
expected from any snowfall. Drier conditions are expected from
Saturday afternoon to next Monday.

While we could see some light rain and snow showers Friday to
Saturday, model guidance is really hinting at some dry air near the
surface those two days in addition to Sunday and next Monday too.
This brings up some fire weather concerns as we head into this
weekend into early next week. For Friday, we have W to WNW`rly winds
gusting up to 30 mph across the area and possibly up to 40-45 mph
near the shore of the Keweenaw; the saving grace for Friday, though,
is that min RHs are looking to only bottom out to the low 30
percents in Menominee County and the highs are only projected to be
in the 40s. Saturday is looking to be pretty similar, save for it
being drier across the interior west (min RHs near 30 percent)
during the afternoon hours. On these two days, we could see some
very limited/localized elevated fire weather concerns. However, come
Sunday and possibly Monday expect even drier conditions; with breezy
NW`rly winds, min RHs down to the mid 20 percents, and highs in the
50s, there`s a good (70+%) chance that we see some elevated fire
weather concerns come Sunday. Monday appears similar too, although
the winds appear weaker and the temperatures warmer (in the mid 50s
to low 60s). Therefore, fire weather partners should keep an eye on
future forecast packages, as any changes in the temps, RHs, and
winds could influence the fire weather concerns this weekend through
early next week...

Our next chance for precip looks to come around the Monday
night/Tuesday time period. While the NBM brings 50 to 60% chances
for precip across the area during this time period, I`m thinking the
actual chances should be lower (30 to 50% instead) as the latest GFS
and European guidance tracks the associated shortwave low too far
south now to bring anything over us. Should we remain dry, we could
see elevated fire weather concerns return towards the end of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 145 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

VFR prevails at all terminals through the forecast period with just
some mid and upper level cloud cover lingering over the area. A few
-SHRA will be in the vicinity of SAW this afternoon and through the
first half of the night , though chances of MVFR ceilings or
visibility as a result are only about 10-20%. Winds generally out of
the west pick up into Friday, with gusts up to 20 to 25 knots
possible especially at IWD and CMX.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 417 AM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

WNW winds of 20 to 25 knots over the eastern lake this morning
weaken to 20 knots or less by noon, before SW winds of 20 to 25
knots pick up over the western half of the lake this afternoon. As
the winds over the western lake slowly veer more towards the W
tonight, the winds increase to 20 to 30 knots. The winds continue
increasing to gales up to 35 knots over the central lake along the
northern shore of the Keweenaw Friday via funneling along the
shoreline and cold air advection continuing across the area behind a
cold front. As the winds veer more towards the NW Friday night into
Saturday, the winds weaken to 20 to 30 knots across the lake before
backing to the SW over the central lake early Saturday evening. As
we get clipped by a cold front Saturday night into Sunday, W winds
of 20 to 30 knots continue across the waters of Lake Superior. As
ridging builds in Sunday night, winds die down to 20 knots or less
and remain that way until possibly Monday night, when a shortwave
low moving through the Upper Midwest increases N`rly winds to 20 to
25 knots across the lake through Tuesday night.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM...TAP
AVIATION...LC
MARINE...TAP