Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 260900
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
500 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE ERN U.S. WITH
A TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THERE IS A SHORTWAVE OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS HEADS
NORTHEAST AND MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT.

NAM BRINGS IN SOME DEEPER MOISTURE AND 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE BACK INTO THE U.P. THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH THE
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW ABOUT THE SAME THING AS WELL. AGREE WITH SPC THINKING OF SLIGHT
RISK IN THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA AND MARGINAL RISK BASICALLY FROM
CRYSTAL FALLS TO MARQUETTE AND EASTWARD LINE AS THERE WILL BE LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARIES AND THEIR CONVERGENCE TO KICK OFF SOME CONVECTION
LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE STARTS TO
AFFECT THE AREA AS WELL. BOUNDARIES COULD SERVE TO ENHANCE SOME OF
THE STORMS AND COULD SEE HEAVY RAINFALL AND HIGH WINDS MOSTLY FOR
THE SEVERE THREAT. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME SMALL HAIL IN THE
STRONGER CELLS AS ML CAPE GETS UP TO 700 J/KG OR SO. ONLY QUESTION
IS HOW MUCH SURFACE HEATING WILL TAKE PLACE AND NOT CONFIDENT IN
THIS AS THERE IS SOME CLOUDS AND FOG AROUND AND DEPENDING ON HOW
MUCH CONVECTION OCCURS TO THE SOUTH...HIGH CLOUDS FROM THIS COULD
PREVENT HEATING. HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CWA. HELD ON TO HIGHER POPS TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH AND DECREASE POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT. COULD SEE ANYWHERE FROM
0.30 TO 1.50 INCHES OF RAIN OUT OF THIS SYSTEM THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
LEAST AMOUNTS IN THE WEST. DID GO WITH CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THE
CENTRAL AND EAST. OTHERWISE...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE
GOING FORECAST. TEMPERATURES COULD BE A PROBLEM TODAY IF THERE IS
SOME SUNSHINE...WOULD WARM UP PRETTY GOOD. WILL GO MORE PESSIMISTIC
WITH CLOUD COVER FOR NOW AND NOT CHANGE TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

A SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE ERN CWA WED MORNING WILL PROMOTE
SHOWERS OVER THE E MAINLY BEFORE NOON. MEANWHILE...A MUCH WEAKER
SHORTWAVE BEHIND THE FIRST WILL MOVE ACROSS DURING PEAK
HEATING...WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH FORCING TO SPARK SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. NOT EXPECTING ANY STRONG STORMS GIVEN MARGINAL
INSTABILITY AND WEAK SHEAR. MARINE FOG WILL BE DIMINISHING ON WED AS
LOWER DEW POINTS MOVE IN.

A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CWA LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU
AHEAD OF A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NRN PLAINS. MAY SEE
SOME SHOWERS AND ALONG THE FRONT...POSSIBLY STRENGTHENING TO SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS THE FRONT INTERSECTS LAKE SUPERIOR BREEZE
BOUNDARIES THU AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BEHIND
THE FRONT...WHILE WILL BRING MARINE FOG BACK INTO THE FORECAST. MAY
SEE HIGHS REACH 80F IN SOME SPOTS ON THU AS 850MB TEMPS INCREASE TO
14-15C.

A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS CANADA WILL DRAG THAT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
AND A SFC COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA ON FRI. STILL SOME MODEL
DISAGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THE SYSTEM AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY COMING
TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE SW BEHIND THE SYSTEM...SO EXACT DETAILS ARE
HARD TO PIN DOWN. DOES LOOK LIKE THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH AROUND
PEAK HEATING ON FRI...WHICH MAY LEAD TO STRONGER/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DEPENDING ON DETAILS MAINLY RELATING TO INSTABILITY
AVAILABILITY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. MOST AREAS LOOK TO SEE
PRECIP AT SOME POINT BETWEEN LATE THU NIGHT AND SAT MORNING. THE
ECMWF SUGGESTS PRECIP COULD LINGER INTO SAT MORNING OVER THE SERN
CWA...BUT BY SAT AFTERNOON ALL MODELS AGREE ON SFC HIGH PRESSURE
TAKING CONTROL AND KEEPING IT THROUGH MON. 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO
AROUND 0C SAT INTO SUN WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO BE 10-15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL SAT AND AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON SUN. CLEAR
SKIES SAT NIGHT LEADS TO A CONCERN FOR A FROST/FREEZE OVER THE
INTERIOR W AND CENTRAL...AND WILL BE LOWERING MIN TEMPS IN THE
FORECAST CONSIDERABLY. BY MON...TEMPS LOOK TO BE CLOSER TO 5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 113 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

CHALLENGING FCST SHAPING UP OVER THE NEXT 24HRS. WITH ABUNDANT LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA...LIFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AT KIWD/KCMX. EXPECT FOG/STRATUS TO DEVELOP AT
KSAW AS WELL...BRINGING CONDITIONS DOWN TO LIFR LATER IN THE NIGHT.
ALL TERMINALS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR BY AFTN. NEXT DISTURBANCE
APPROACHING FROM THE S AND SW WILL BRING SHRA TO THE AREA THIS
AFTN/EVENING WITH KSAW MOST LIKELY TO SEE PCPN. NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR SOME TSRA TO OCCUR IN CNTRL UPPER MI AS WELL. IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY SET IN AGAIN THIS EVENING AT ALL TERMINALS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS FOR MOST OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WHERE
THEY WILL BE UP TO 25 KNOTS ACROSS EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. FOG WILL
LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND MAY BE DENSE AT TIMES.
ADDITIONAL FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...07



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