Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 300811
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
411 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

MID-LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE MID-MS VALLEY
WILL GRADUALLY DECAY TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH JUST
NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR PICKS UP A SLOW-MOVING MID-LEVEL LOW ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AFTER THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS
INLAND TODAY...THIS WILL BRING INCREASING MID TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. MUCH LIKE THIS PAST THURSDAY...PRECIP WILL
ATTEMPT TO EDGE NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CWA OVERNIGHT.
THOUGH LOW TO MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS A BIT HIGHER THIS TIME
AROUND...THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH DRY AIR AMID WEAKENING FORCING
TO STAVE OFF ANY PRECIP. BUT AGAIN...VIRGA WITH MAYBE SOME SPRINKLES
CANT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL LATE TONIGHT.

HIGHER LOW-LEVEL TEMPS WILL BE OFFSET BY SLIGHTLY MORE CLOUD-COVER
AND STRONGER NE GRADIENT FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY...PRODUCING
HIGH TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY ACROSS THE NORTH.
MIXING WILL ALSO BE SLIGHTLY MITIGATED BY THE INCREASING CLOUD
COVER...SO MIN RH VALUES WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE 30S INLAND. THIS
WILL AID IN THE CONTINUING DRYING TREND OF AT LEAST SHORT TERM
WILDFIRE FUELS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

MODELS INDICATE A FAIRLY PERSISTENT PATTERN OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS
WITH AMPLIFIED MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER WRN NORTH
AMERICA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK INDUCING AN AMPLIFIED DOWNSTREAM TROUGH
ACROSS ERN NORTH AMERICA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS RIDGE-
TROUGH PATTERN WILL KEEP THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IN A GENERALLY DRY NW
FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS CONSISTENT SHOWING STRONGER
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING SOUTHWARD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IN THE
TUE-WED TIME FRAME WHEN THE WRN NORTH AMERICA RIDGE REACHES PEAK
AMPLITUDE. AN ASSOC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WL ACCOMPANY THE SHORTWAVE
EITHER LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT AND COULD BRING A CHC FOR -SHRA TUE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WED...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED FCST PERIOD.

AS FOR TEMPS...THE EXPECTED PATTERN MOSTLY FAVORS NORMAL TO BLO
NORMAL TEMPS FOR UPPER MI. AWAY FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE GREAT
LAKES...AN OVERALL DRY COLUMN ON MOST DAYS AS NOTED ON MODEL
SOUNDING AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF .5 INCH OR LESS MOST DAYS
WILL SUPPORT RATHER LARGE TEMP RANGES FROM NIGHTLY MINS TO AFTN
MAXES. THERE WILL BE SOME WARMING FROM SUN INTO MON MAINLY OVER THE
WRN INTERIOR WHERE HIGH TEMPS WILL RISE 5-9F AT MOST LOCATIONS.
DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZES WILL KEEP TEMPS COOLER NEAR THE SUPERIOR AND
LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINES. WARMING WL CONTINUE ON TUE AS W TO SW FLOW
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD
ARRIVE LATE TUE AFTERNOON/TUE EVENING. HOW WARM TUE TEMPS GET WILL
DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD
RISE WELL INTO THE 60S WITH MAYBE EVEN A FEW SPOTS SOUTH CENTRAL
REACHING LOW 70S. COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
WED...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR...AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FM
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE BUILDING 5H HGTS
AS MID-LVL RIDGING NOSES OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR LATE WEEK. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR GRADUAL WARMING WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING BACK TOWARD NORMAL
BY NEXT FRI.

WITH THE DEVELOPING DRY SPELL AND MOSTLY COOL WEATHER...ESPECIALLY
AT NIGHT...KEEPING GREENUP SLOW...FIRE WX WILL BE AN ISSUE AT TIMES
FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 1-2 WEEKS. OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS...TUE STILL
LOOKS LIKE THE DAY OF MOST CONCERN AS IT SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BREEZY W TO SW WINDS AHEAD OF APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...THAT WILL CHANGE IF TIMING OF THE FRONT IS
FASTER.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 138 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KCMX LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON WHEN HIGH-END MVFR CIGS MAY OCCUR WITH A POCKET OF
INCREASED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 253 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

NE WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MAINLY THE WEST HALF OF
LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FAR WEST DUE TO
FUNNELING EFFECTS FROM TERRAIN. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL THEN
RESULT IN DIMINISHING WINDS. WSW WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TO AS
HIGH AS 25 KNOTS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE NW. WINDS WILL BECOME N TO NW AT
AROUND 20 KNOTS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY BEHIND THIS
LOW.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KLUBER
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...KLUBER
MARINE...KLUBER



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