Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 201841
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
241 PM EDT Mon Mar 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 301 AM EDT MON MAR 20 2017

Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb ridge across the central and
southern plains with a broad trough across central Canada skirting
the northern plains this morning. This broad trough slowly digs into
the upper Great Lakes today with a shortwave near Lake Winnipeg by
00z Tue. This shortwave moves through the area tonight. Nam shows
some deeper moisture and some 850-500 mb q-vector convergence moving
through tonight. Overall, did not make too many changes to the going
forecast. Have some chance pops in for northwest lake effect snow
belts late tonight as cold air comes in aided by some deeper
moisture and dynamics behind the shortwave.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 358 AM EDT MON MAR 20 2017

Still looking for NW-N wind LES Tue into early Wed, but dry air and
incoming SFC high pressure will limit accumulations to very minor
amounts of around 1-2 inches in the 30 hour time period.

Attention is certainly focused toward the end of the week when
models all show more substantial QPF along and ahead of a warm front
and low pressure system. There is a lot of uncertainty given model
spectrum in synoptics and also because ptype will be right on the
edge of rain, freezing rain, sleet, and snow. Minor changes to
guidance will likely lead to significant changes in the forecast. At
this point, using a broad model blend, the idea is to have rain,
freezing rain, and sleet move in Thu night, then transition to rain
as SFC temps increase on Fri. Colder air may move in Fri night,
leading to more of a snow forecast before SFC temps make for a
rain/snow mix on Sat. Again, there is so much uncertainty, but there
is potential for impactful frozen/freezing precip. Stay tuned.

For anything not specifically mentioned, stuck with the blended
initialization.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 240 PM EDT MON MAR 20 2017

Quiet with VFR conditions until later tonight when cold front pushes
across Upper Michigan. Expect a brief periof of scattered rain/snow
showers as the front moves through, mainly at CMX. Colder air moving
in on Tue combined with moisture off Lk Superior and daytime heating
should result in scattered snow showers on Tue, but only mostly
during the morning at IWD and CMX. Ceilings should drop to around
030 late tonight into Tue morning but otherwise will end up in the
lower VFR range up to 050. Vsby within in heavier snow showers on
Tue could drop to IFR at 1-2sm but for the most part should be
MVFR to VFR. NW-N winds may gust over 20 kts late tonight into
Tue so there also could be blsn, especially at SAW. &&

.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 301 AM EDT MON MAR 20 2017

With the cold air moving across the lake, north gales to 35 knots
are expected Tue morning across the central and eastern lake. There
could be a little freezing spray tonight into Tue morning. These
would be the strongest winds forecasted for this forecast period.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...07



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