Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 290729
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
329 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED MAINLY ZONAL MID/UPPER LEVEL
FLOW ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM NW
ONTARIO INTO NRN MN SUPPORTED SCT SHRA/TSRA OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD
INTO NRN ONTARIO WEST OF THUNDER BAY. TO THE SOUTH...ANOTHER SHRTWV
OVER IA BRINGING SHOWERS FROM NE IA THROUGH SW WI WAS SLOWLY LIFTING
TO THE ENE. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE PCPN TO NEAR AUW.
OTHERWISE...PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS UPPER MI
WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 70S.

TONIGHT...MOST OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN THE INFLUENCE OF THE
NRN AND SRN STREAM SHORTWAVES. RADAR TRENDS AND SHORT RANGE MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE RAIN OVER WI TO AFFECT MAINLY THE SRN TIER ALONG
AND SOUTH OF US-2 FROM IMT EASTWARD. SHRA/TSRA WITH THE NRN STREAM
SHRTWV MAY BRUSH MAINLY THE KEWEENAW BY LATE THIS EVENING AND
POSSIBLY INTO THE NRN PORTION OF UPPER MI. FCST MUCAPE VALUES INTO
THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE OVER THE NORTH COULD ALSO SUPPORT ISOLD
TSRA.

SATURDAY...SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE CWA
ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF THE WI SHRTWV OR POSSIBLY AIDED BY A
TRAILING SHRTWV DIVING INTO NRN WI. HOWEVER...EXPECT THE PCPN TO
SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST BY AFTERNOON. WITH SOME CLEARING INTO THE WEST
HALF BY AFTERNOON...TEMPS WILL REBOUND INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S.
GREATER CLOUD COVER OVER THE EAST AND WITH SRLY FLOW OFF OF LAKE
MI...TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MODELS INDICATE RIDGE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
PROVIDE DRY WEATHER FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK....THEN A SERIES
OF WEAKER SHORTWAVES MOVING UP THE BACKSIDE OF RIDGE COULD BRING
SOME ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTION INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY MIDWEEK.
MODELS THEN SUGGEST MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COULD REESTABLISH ITSELF
IN DEVELOPING BLOCKING PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA AND GREATLY
AMPLIFY INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK/WEEKEND.
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR NEAR RECORD WARM TEMPS LATE IN THE WEEK.

SUN AND MON...MODELS SHOW NORTHERN PLAINS RIDGE MOVING INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES IN RESPONSE TO BROAD TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER WRN
CANADA INTO THE PAC NW. WITH 8H TEMPS RISING TO AROUND 20C AND DEW
POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S IN A SW FLOW...EXPECT MUGGY CONDITIONS
WITH HIGH TEMPS BY MONDAY TO REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

TUE INTO THU...MODELS ADVERTISE A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING UP
BACKSIDE OF MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AS RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST OF THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SINCE TIMING OF THESE WEAKER SHORTWAVES IS
POORLY RESOLVED BY MODELS WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE ONLY LOW CHC POPS
FOR POSSIBLE CONVECTION FROM THESE FEATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TOWARD END OF NEXT WEEK/WEEKEND...MODELS SUGGEST RIDGE MID-UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF AND GREATLY AMPLIFY INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS AND GREAT LAKES REGION AS A BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPS
WITH A BROAD TROUGH PERSISTING OVER WRN CANADA INTO THE U.S. WEST
COAST AND A CUT-OFF LOW DEVELOPING NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES OVER
THE NORTH ATLANTIC.  WITH MANY OF THE MODELS FORECASTING 5H HEIGHTS
OF 590 DM OR GREATER AND 8H TEMPS GREATER THAN 20C...EXPECT HIGH
TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S AND PERHAPS EVEN APPROACHING 90F OVER
PORTIONS OF THE WEST HALF OF UPPER MI. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
A FEW RECORD HIGH TEMPS FALL FRI INTO SAT OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE
CWA. MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 128 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS FCST PERIOD AT ALL SITES.
POSSIBLE ISOLD TSRA COULD AFFECT KCMX TERMINAL EARLY THIS MORNING AS
CLUSTERS OF TSRA OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR SLIDE TOWARD KEWEENAW
PENINSULA WHILE WEAKENING. WILL MONITOR AND UPDATE AS NECESSARY.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 411 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

EXPECT A PERIOD OF MODERATE SW WINDS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
GUSTING TO 15-20 KNOTS. OTHERWISE...A GENERALLY WEAK PRES GRADIENT
WILL DOMINATE THE UPPER LAKES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ON MOST
DAYS...WINDS WILL BE UNDER 15KT. LOOKS LIKE THE LIGHTEST WINDS WILL
OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRES RIDGE MORE FIRMLY IN CONTROL.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...JLB



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