Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 132012
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
412 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER NW ONTARIO. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AROUND THE LOW WITH SFC-700 MB LAPSE RATES ABOVE 8C/KM AND DAYTIME
HEATING SUPPORTED SCT/ISOLD LIGHT SHOWERS FROM NE MN INTO WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR AND NW WI. OTHERWISE...BREEZY WEST WINDS PREVAILED OVER
UPPER MI WITH A RELATIVELY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT AROUND A 997 MB LOW
NEAR JAMES BAY.

TONIGHT...AS THE MID LEVEL LOW SAGS TOWARD THE NRN LAKES...EXPECT
SOME ISOLD LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES MAY DEVELOP INTO WRN UPPER MI
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THE PCPN
COVERAGE/INTENSITY WILL DIMINISH. MODERATE/STRONG 700-300 QVECTOR
CONV AHEAD OF THE LOW MOVING INTO THE WEST BY 06Z AND EAST OVERNIGHT
WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL LIGHT PCPN OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

MON...THE MID 700-500 MB TROUGH MOVING OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH
ABUNDANT SFC-700MB MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY (700 MB TEMPS TO
AROUND -6C) FOR NMRS SHOWERS OVER THE LAND AS DAYTIME HEATING
INCREASES. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT MUCAPE VALUES OF 400 J/KG
MAY BE POSSIBLE...WITH ONLY SHALLOW/NARROW CAPE EXPECTED...AND LACK
OF LIGHTNING THIS AFTERNOON UPSTREAM...NO MENTION OF TSRA WAS ADDED.
MAX TEMPS WILL STAY WELL BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES...ESPECIALLY
DOWNWIND FROM NW FLOW ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014

MAIN FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM IS WITH POPS/TEMPS MON-WED.

MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON EXACT TRACK/STRENGTH DETAILS OF A
CLOSED UPPER LOW SET TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MON INTO TUE. THE LOW
IS CURRENTLY HANGING OUT OVER EXTREME NWRN ONTARIO AND IT SET TO
SPLIT IN TWO TODAY...SENDING A PIECE OF ENERGY INTO QUEBEC WHILE THE
OTHER ROTATES OVER OR NEAR THE CWA. MODELS PROBABLY WILL NOT BE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT UNTIL THE 00Z/14 RUNS WHICH WILL BE AFTER A LOT OF
THE ENERGY HAS SPLIT OUT OF THE SYSTEM. AS IT STANDS NOW...AT LEAST
MUCH OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE RAIN MON INTO MON NIGHT...WITH PRECIP
LINGERING INTO TUE. FACTORS CONTRIBUTING TO THE PRECIP INCLUDE THE
ENERGY/HEIGHT FALLS FROM THE UPPER LOW MOVING OVERHEAD...DAYTIME
INSTABILITY RESULTING FROM THE ANOMALOUSLY COLD TEMPS IN THE UPPER
LOW...AND NLY FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR BETWEEN TROUGHING E AND A HIGH
WELL TO THE W. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN BY FAR WILL BE ON MON DURING
PEAK HEATING...WHEN LIKELY POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST. THERE MAY WELL
BE SOME DRY SPOTS DEPENDING ON EXACT TRACK/STRENGTH OF THE COMPACTS
UPPER LOW...SO THOSE DETAILS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED BY LATER
SHIFTS WHEN MODELS /HOPEFULLY/ COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. HAVE HIGH
TEMPS IN THE 50S W AND AROUND 60 S AND E. THESE TEMPS WILL BE AROUND
20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

WITH THE N WINDS AND COLD CORE OF THE LOW STILL OVER THE CWA TUE
MORNING...HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS
LINGERING...MAINLY IN THE MORNING. THE UPPER LOW SHUNTS QUICKLY TO
THE NE ON TUE...WITH A SFC HIGH BECOMING MORE DOMINANT OVER THE WRN
CWA AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. HIGH TEMPS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO REACH
60 IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH SOME LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE AREAS
POSSIBLY NOT GETTING ABOVE 50. THESE TEMPS WILL BE AROUND
20-25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THINK THE MIN TEMP FORECAST FOR TUE NIGHT COULD BE TOO WARM...BUT
ONLY IF ENOUGH CLEARING OCCURS. WITH THE COLD DAY ON TUE...CLEARING
/OF UNCERTAIN MAGNITUDE/ TUE NIGHT FROM W TO TO E MAY LEAD TO SOME
COLDER MIN TEMPS OVER WRN UPPER MI. AMONG THE REASONS FOR THE
UNCERTAINTY ARE POSSIBLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKING AROUND THE
DEPARTING LOW/TROUGH AS INDICATED BY THE ECMWF AND THE POSSIBILITY
THAT THE WINDS MAY STAY UP ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT
AS MUCH.

REMAINING UPPER TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WED AS UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS TOWARD THE CWA. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY...AND THE
AIRMASS OVERALL WARMER...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER SFC TEMPS WITH
HIGHS FROM AROUND 60 ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR TO AROUND 70 INLAND.

FORECAST WED NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SAT LOOKS PRETTY QUIET. NORMAL
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT WITH WEAK UPPER RIDING
BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS...SIGNIFICANT PRECIP IS NOT
EXPECTED. IN GENERAL...A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND.
BY SAT...HIGH TEMPS COULD REACH 80 OVER THE INTERIOR W.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 144 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. GUSTY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH TERMINALS GUSTING 20-30KT. STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE AT KCMX WHICH IS MORE EXPOSED TO A WNW WIND. EXPECT
CIGS TO DROP INTO THE MVFR RANGE LATE TONIGHT AT CMX/IWD AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES TOWARD THE
REGION. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ARE ALSO EXPECTED BUT WITH VSBY STILL
REMAINING MVFR OR HIGHER. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST AT SAW WITH
A MORE DOWNSLOPE FLOW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014

EXPECT THAT THE GUSTY WNW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING AS THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS. WINDS SHOULD THEN REMAIN BELOW
20 KNOTS THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB






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