Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 051153
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
653 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 514 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW ARE OVER FAR NERN LAKE SUPERIOR
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING S ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CWA. MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS IS LAKE ENHANCED PRECIP...MAINLY
ALONG THE CONVERGENT TROUGH AXIS AND OVER NCENTRAL AND NWRN UPPER
MI...BUT THE SNOW BEHIND THE TROUGH IS VERY LIGHT. IN FACT...GETTING
STEADY LIGHT SNOW AT THE WFO WITH STARS CLEARLY VISIBLE FROM THE
GROUND. DRY AIR OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR HAS KEPT LAKE EFFECT FROM
FORMING OVER THE KEWEENAW/W MOST OF THE NIGHT...BUT LIGHT SNOW (VIS
5SM) IS NOW BEING REPORTED AT KCMX. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
INTENSIFICATION OF LES THIS MORNING AS A SFC RIDGES MOVES THROUGH.
ALSO SEEING VERY LIGHT SNOW OVER SRN MENOMINEE COUNTY THIS MORNING.
ONLY HAVE UP TO AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW IN NW WIND SNOWBELTS THROUGH
TODAY.

SHOULD BE A PRETTY CLOSE REPEAT TO YESTERDAY WHERE THAT RIDGE MOVES
THROUGH AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE...WITH TIMING OF BOTH SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY AND EARLY THIS MORNING. DECREASED CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING
AND AFTERNOON FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST GIVEN THAT YESTERDAY ENDED UP
BEING A LOT SUNNIER THAN MODELS INDICATED. HOWEVER...IT DOES LOOK
LIKE MOISTURE AND MOISTURE DEPTH WILL BE GREATER ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE SO DID NOT GO AS CLEAR AS YESTERDAY. HAVE GREATER
POPS TONIGHT THAN EARLY THIS MORNING FOR A THREE REASONS. GREATER
MOISTURE MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...THE FOLLOWING RIDGE IS NOT AS
STRONG/DRY AS THE ONE THIS MORNING...AND THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN
UPPER JET MOVES IN LATER IN THE NIGHT. HAVE THE BEST POPS OVER THE
KEWEENAW AND E. HAVE 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE KEWEENAW AND AROUND
AN INCH E. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT AN INCH OR LESS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 514 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A TREND TOWARD A MORE AMPLIFIED
PATTERN AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER WRN NOAM AND A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND ERN CONUS. AFTER A RELATIVELY MILD
WEEKEND...COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH LES FOR N TO NW
FLOW LOCATIONS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

SAT...AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW MOVES THROUGH NRN
ONTARIO A COLD FRONT WILL SAG THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR INTO NRN UPPER
MI. ALTHOUGH 850 MB TEMPS ONLY DROP TO AROUND -12C...LOW LEVEL CONV
ALONG THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT SOME LES MAINLY INTO THE KEWEENAW AND
EAST OF MUNISING. ANY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT...LESS THAN A
HALF INCH.

SAT NIGHT...A MID LEVEL LOW MOVING INTO ERN ND AND SFC LOW INTO SRN
MANITOBA WILL SUPPORT SRLY FLOW ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE 850-700
MB FRONT THROUGH  LAKE SUPERIOR AND NRN AND ERN UPPER MI WHERE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UP TO AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE.

SUN...SNOW CHANCES WILL CONTINUE AS THE MID LEVEL LOW MOVES TO NEAR
KDLH. HOWEVER...THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF...KEEP THE HIGHER
QPF AND PCPN CHANCES TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWA AS A DRY SLOT
MOVES INTO UPPER MI.

SUN NIGHT AND MON...LES CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS THE MID LEVEL LOW
MOVES THROUGH WI TOWARD IL/IN AND WINDS BECOME NRLY. CAA WILL DROP
850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -15C. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE
DETAILS WITH THE LOW LEVEL WINDS AND AMOUNT OF FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW. WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND COLD AIR MOVING
IN...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR LIGHT TO MODERATE LES.
IN ADDITION SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER THE REST OF
THE AREA.

TUE INTO WED...AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE LAKES...COLDER AIR
WILL DROP INTO THE REGION WITH 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -
20C...SUPPORTING HIGH LES CHANCES FOR N TO NW FLOW FAVORED LOCATIONS
WITH ADDITIONAL MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.

THU...MODELS SUGGEST THAT LES WILL DIMINISH AS A SFC RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA WITH BACKING WINDS AND LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 651 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...A RIDGE WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY AND WILL
DIMINISH THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND CLOUDS AS WINDS TURN OUT OF THE
SW. SNOW AND LOWER CIGS/VIS MOVES INTO ALL SITES THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVES MOVES THROUGH.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 514 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

NW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-30 KTS WILL DIMINISH TO 25 KTS OR LESS TODAY
THEN INCREASE TO W-SW TO 30 KTS TONIGHT AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH. NW WINDS 20-30 KTS EXPECTED ON SAT BEHIND THE
TROUGH. WINDS BECOME SE TO 30 KTS ON SUN AHEAD OF A STRONGER CLIPPER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FM SCNTRL
CANADA. GALES MAY OCCUR OVER THE EAST HALF SUN AND SUN NIGHT.
STRONGER N WINDS COULD THEN REACH GALE FORCE ONCE THIS LOW MOVES BY
NEXT MON INTO TUE.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...TITUS


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