Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 211800
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
200 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER CENTRAL
CA...A RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AND A TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND ACROSS THE SERN U.S. THIS MORNING. THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND MOVE AWAY
FROM THE AREA WITH THE RIDGE IN THE WESTERN U.S. MOVING INTO THE
PLAINS TONIGHT.

NAM TAKES STRONG 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE
OUT OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. ECMWF AND GFS SHOW ABOUT THE SAME
THING AS WELL AND GOING FORECAST HAS TRENDS WELL IN HAND WITH PCPN
MOVING OUT THIS MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WEST WITH HIGHEST POPS
ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER. DID NOT MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPERATURES AS THEY SEEMED REASONABLE AND FROST LOOKS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT AND THIS IS COVERED IN THE FORECAST. DID ADD SOME PATCHY FOG
THOUGH AS WINDS GET LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING TO SET UP AND THERE COULD BE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED
UNDER AN INVERSION TO FORM FOG...SO HAVE ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG
INLAND.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO START TONIGHT AND
POTENTIALLY CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THE UPPER TROUGH THAT
IS BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO PORTIONS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AND TODAY WILL BE WELL TO THE EAST OF THE
CWA BY MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW A SURFACE RIDGE TO SLIDE OVER
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT FROM A HIGH CENTERED IN THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. THE RIDGE WILL QUICKLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST ON
MONDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO
IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ANOTHER WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA
MONDAY MORNING...BUT WILL ONLY PRODUCE A FEW PASSING MID CLOUDS. THE
STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER FAR NORTHEAST ONTARIO ON MONDAY
EVENING WON/T HAVE ANY AFFECT ON THE AREA BUT WILL WILL TRY TO SLIDE
A DECAYING COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY NIGHT.
WITH THE DRY AIR ALREADY IN PLACE FROM THE HIGH (NOW CENTERED OVER
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY)...ONLY INFLUENCE FROM THE DECAYING FRONT WILL
BE A SLIGHT VEERING TO THE WINDS.

TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WILL THEN HAVE ITS WEATHER CONTROLLED
BY AN UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL HAVE SHIFTED EAST OUT OF THE WESTERN
CONUS. THIS UPPER RIDGE AND A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NEW ENGLAND
STATES WILL LEAD TO DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
THE LAST THIRD OF SEPTEMBER. THE MAIN ITEM OF CONCERN DURING THIS
PERIOD WILL BE THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
NEVADA. THIS UPPER LOW WILL GRADUALLY MAKE ITS WAY NORTHEAST INTO
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUESDAY AND THEN BECOME SHEARED OUT
OVER MINNESOTA ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE DRY AIR
IN PLACE...THINK ANY PRECIPITATION WILL STRUGGLE TO SHIFT EAST INTO
THE CWA...SO HAVE TRENDED THE EXISTING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THAT
PERIOD DOWN AND TO THE WEST. ONCE PART OF THE UPPER LOW IS SHEARED
OUT...THE SOUTHERN HALF WILL ROTATE BACK SOUTHWEST AND OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. THUS...EXPECT THE DRY
CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE UNDER THE
PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS ON UPSLOPE N WINDS IS GIVING WAY TO A CLEARING
SKY THIS AFTERNOON. STILL EXPECT SAW TO HOLD OUT IN THE MVFR
CATEGORY FOR ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS...AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE
NW. N WINDS GUSTING 20-25KTS OVER N UPPER MI WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH
THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE BECOMING AROUND 5KTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT.
DESPITE DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE W AND SW THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM LATE
MONDAY ON. THIS TIME THEY WILL BE OUT OF THE W AND STRONGEST AT CMX
WHERE GUSTS NEARING 20-25KTS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. THIS WILL BE
THANKS TO ANOTHER SFC LOW PUSHES ACROSS CENTRAL/N ONTARIO...BECOMING
SQUEEZED BETWEEN LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID MS VALLEY AND N
MANITOBA/W HUDSON BAY.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 253 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

NO GALES SEEN THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 20 KNOTS
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK AS A SERIES OF HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WINDS CLOSE TO GALES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE BAY OF GREEN BAY TODAY BEHIND A COLD
FRONT. THIS WOULD BE THE STRONGEST WINDS FORECASTED THIS PERIOD.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...07





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