Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 261556
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1156 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

EXPECT BUILDING 5H RIDGE HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS MID-
UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. COULD SEE EVEN
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS TODAY THAN YESTERDAY AS 8H TEMPS RISE TO 18-
20C IN A WSW FLOW. EXPECT INLAND TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S WITH EVEN
LOWER 90S TEMPS POSSIBLE OVER TYPICAL WARM SPOT LOCATIONS LIKE
KENTON...BARAGA OR LA BRANCHE. STILL EXPECTING A LAKE BREEZE TO FORM
OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON ON...LOWERING TEMPS A
FEW DEGREES ALONG THE SHORELINE.

WITH RAP MODEL SHOWING MLCAPES 200-700 J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON ITS
POSSIBLE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY COULD MAYBE
TRIGGER AN ISOLD SHRA/TSRA. HOWEVER...THERE ARE PLENTY OF INHIBITING
FACTORS FOR SHRA/TSRA WHICH INCLUDE DRY AIR NOTED BELOW 800 MB OFF
RAP SNDGS...MID-LVL (700-500 MB) LAPSE RATES AROUND ONLY 6C/KM AND
MID-LVL Q-VECT DIV AS RIDGE HEIGHTS BUILD OVERHEAD. WL ONLY INCLUDE
SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR SHRA/TSRA ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES...MAINLY
CENTRAL AND EAST. WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR LESS THAN 30 KTS WOULD NOT
EXPECT ANY SVR STORMS IF CONVECTION DOES INDEED FORM.

HIGH PRES OVER AREA SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE
AN ISOLD SHRA/TSRA SNEAK IN OVER FAR NRN LAKE SUPERIOR FROM
CONVECTION FORMING TO THE NORTH WHERE MODELS DEPICT DEEPER MOISTURE
AND WEAK TO MODERATE WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN WESTERLY FLOW...BUT
UPPER MI SHOULD STAY DRY. MIN TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER
TO MID 60S UNDER CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...AS A SURFACE HIGH IS LOCATED
OVER PENNSYLVANIA AND STRETCHING A RIDGE NORTHWEST OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO FEATURE SHOULD LEAD TO A
NICE DAY OVER MUCH OF UPPER MICHIGAN...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES RUNNING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 80S FOR ALL BUT THE
IMMEDIATE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE EAST OF THE BAY DE NOCS AND ALSO
OVER THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW. LAKE BREEZES IN BOTH AREAS SHOULD BE
AID THOSE SLIGHTLY COOLER VALUES...WHILE THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE LAKE BREEZE OFF SUPERIOR CONFINED TO
THE SHORELINE. THAT LAKE BREEZE OVER THE WEST MAY BE ENOUGH TO KICK
OFF AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM
IRONWOOD TO HOUGHTON AND HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR IT.

THE FOCUS FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW INTENSIFYING
TO THE 990S MB RANGE IN SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN ON MONDAY NIGHT. THIS
LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TO HUDSON BAY BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...WHILE
PUSHING A COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT. PINNING
DOWN THE CONVECTIVE FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD IS TRICKY AS UPSTREAM
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTROL THE EVOLUTION BOTH TONIGHT AND
MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD STAY TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA.
AS THE LOW AND STRONG UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST TUESDAY...EXPECT
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO BE ON THE INCREASE. DO
HAVE SOME CONCERN FOR THE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA...SINCE THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE WELL OFF TO THE
WEST OF THE AREA. THAT BEING SAID...THE WARM/MOIST ATMOSPHERE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT (PWAT VALUES RISING TO AROUND 1.9IN AND SURFACE
DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE UPPER 60S) WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE FRONT HELPS WEAKEN ANY CAPPING
IN PLACE TUESDAY EVENING. WHILE SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT UNDER THE BROAD MID LEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION...HAVE FOCUSED THE HIGHEST POPS DURING THE TUESDAY
EVENING INTO EARLY OVERNIGHT HOUR PERIOD WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT. WHERE THUNDERSTORMS DO OCCUR...EXPECT THEM TO BECOME
STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE AS MLCAPE VALUES ARE IN THE 1-2K J/KG
RANGE AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES TRY TO INCREASE FROM 20 TO 30KTS.
THINK THOSE BORDERLINE BULK SHEAR VALUES...ALONG WITH THE REALLY
WARM AIR (FREEZING LEVELS OF 14-15KFT)...WILL LIMIT THE HAIL
POTENTIAL EXCEPT FOR THE STRONGEST STORMS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CWA. WHILE THOSE CONDITIONS WILL LIMIT THE HAIL POTENTIAL...THEY
WILL INCREASE THE HEAVY RAIN POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY WHEN FACTORING
IN THE HIGH PWAT VALUES...DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTH...AND INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET TOWARDS EVENING. FORTUNATELY...THE
FRONT LOOKS TO BE PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE KEEP THE STORMS
MOVING TUESDAY NIGHT.

MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL QUICKLY MOVE OVER THE AREA FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...BRINGING AND END
TO THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AND BRINGING MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS
INTO THE AREA. DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW AND A HIGH BUILDING
INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS...EXPECT GUSTY WEST-SOUTHWEST
WINDS TO OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT ON ML WINDS OF
25-30KTS DURING THE DAY OVER THE WEST AND COULD SEE SOME HIGHER
GUSTS OVER THE EXPOSED LOCATIONS ON THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. A
SECONDARY TROUGH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST FOR THURSDAY...BUT THEY
SHOULDN/T BE AS STRONG AS SEEN ON WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE FROM THE PLAINS WILL NOSE NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND REMAIN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH
SWEEPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. MODELS SHOWING LIMITED
MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT...SO WON/T GO OVER SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
FRIDAY. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN IN CONTROL AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS
ACROSS UPPER MI THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...AS THE MAIN HIGH SETTLES
OVER LOWER MI. WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10KTS OR LESS...HIGHEST EACH
AFTERNOON. THERE CONTINUES TO BE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS ALONG THE LAKE
SUPERIOR LAKE BREEZE AS IT TRIES TO SINK DOWN TOWARDS SAW.
OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 353 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

WEAK PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP WINDS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 20 KT THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER S MANITOBA LATE
TUESDAY WILL BRING A TROUGH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT COULD GUST NEAR 25 KNOTS OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TUE
NIGHT WITH WESTERLY WINDS TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL PUSH A RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH SLOWLY DIMINISHING WINDS THURSDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...VOSS



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