Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 300711
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
311 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW ALF OVER
THE UPR GREAT LKS BTWN TROF OVER ERN NAMERICA AND HI AMPLITUDE UPR
RDG OVER THE ROCKIES. SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW AND ON CYC SIDE
OF RIBBON OF FASTER MID LVL WINDS OVER THE NRN PLAINS INTO MN IS
MOVING INTO NRN MN. COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND DPVA/DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC/AXIS OF DEEPER MSTR/PWAT NEAR 1.30 INCHES AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE HAS TRIGGERED SCT-NMRS SHOWERS/TS OVER MAINLY THE W
HALF OF THE CWA WHERE MUCAPE IS HIER NEAR 1500 J/KG. WITH SFC-6KM
SHEAR NO GREATER THAN 15 TO 20 KTS OVER THE WRN CWA...STORMS HAVE
BEEN PULSY/DISORGANIZED IN OUR CWA TO THE E OF A MORE IMPRESSIVE BOW
ECHO THAT HAS PLOWED THRU NE MN/WRN WI. SO THERE HAVE NO SVR WX
REPORTS IN THE MQT CWA. THERE APPEARS TO BE A 2ND WEAKER SHRTWV
DIGGING SEWD THRU MANITOBA AND INTO FAR NW ONTARIO THAT IS
MAINTAINING SOME COLDER CLD TOPS IN THAT AREA. A SFC COLD FNT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS SINKING SEWD TOWARD NW LK SUP.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON POPS/TS CHANCES
ASSOCIATED WITH PAIR OF SHRTWVS NOTED ABOVE.

TNGT...STRONGER SHRTWV NOW PASSING THRU MN IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO
THE SSE TO NEAR CHICAGO BY 12Z TUE WHILE SECOND DISTURBANCE MOVES TO
NEAR THE KEWEENAW. ALTHOUGH THE FIRST DISTURBANCE IS STRONGER...THE
SLOWER SECOND SHRTWV IS FCST TO MAINTAIN DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/AREA
OF DEEPER MSTR OVER MUCH OF THE CWA THRU THE NGT. SO EVEN THOUGH
NOCTURNAL COOLING WL ACT TO LIMIT CONVECTION...THIS FORCING AND
DEEPER MSTR AHEAD OF APRCHG COLD FNT WL MAINTAIN HIER POPS. ALTHOUGH
SOME OF THE STORMS IN THE EVNG ACROSS MAINLY THE W HALF OF THE CWA
CLOSER TO THE HIER H85 THETA E/MUCAPE VALUES MIGHT BE MARGINALLY
SVR...LACK OF SGNFT MSTR INFLOW INTO THE CWA/WEAK DCAPE AND
DIMINISHING INSTABILITY OVERNGT WL LIMIT THE THREAT FURTHER. MID LVL
DRYING/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC IS FCST TO IMPACT THE FAR W LATE...SO
WL FCST DIMINISHING POPS THERE OVERNGT. BUT MOIST LLVL NNW FLOW
BEHIND ASSOCIATED COLD FROPA WL MAINTAIN QUITE A BIT OF LO CLD AND
ADVECT SOME FOG INLAND OFF LK SUP INTO THE NW CWA OVERNGT.

TUE...AS SECOND SHRTWV SLIDES SLOWLY TO THE SE...LINGERING DYNAMIC
FORCING/DEEP MSTR OVER THE ERN CWA IN THE MRNG IS FCST TO EXIT IN
THE AFTN AND GIVE WAY TO MID LVL SUBSIDENCE/DRYING. SO WL MAINTAIN
FLAVOR OF GOING FCST THAT SHOWS DIMINISHING POPS NW-SE. WSHFT TO THE
NNW/SHALLOW INFUSION OF COLD AIR BEHIND COLD FROPA WL SUPPORT
EXPANSION OF LO CLDS TO THE SE. THIS LO CLD/PERHAPS SOME DRIZZLE WL
BE MOST PERSISTENT OVER THE UPSLOPE HIER TERRAIN NEAR LK SUP.
FARTHER INLAND...THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND ADVECTION OF
LLVL DRIER AIR MAY ALLOW FOR SOME SUNSHINE LATE IN THE DAY.
CONSIDERING THE LLVL INFUSION OF COOL AIR WITH STEADY N WIND OFF THE
CHILLY LK WATERS...LOWERED FCST MAX TEMPS. THE MERCURY SHOULD HOLD
IN THE 50S AT MOST PLACES NEAR LK SUP.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

NAM SHOWS A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES 12Z WED WITH A
TROUGH OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND A SHORTWAVE OVER THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES. THE TROUGH PULLS INTO NEW ENGLAND 12Z THU WITH A SHORTWAVE
IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH DROPS INTO THE MIDWEST CORNBELT 12Z
FRI. CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH PCPN OFF TO
THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE AREA. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY
CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION 12Z FRI. THIS TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE AREA 12Z
SAT. ANOTHER 500 MB TROUGH TOPS THE 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES
12Z SUN AND AFFECTS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z MON. ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING BELOW NORMAL. SAT
STILL LOOKS LIKE A LAKE BREEZE...DISSIPATING COLD FRONT DAY WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INLAND AND THEN NEXT COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH ON
MON WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 127 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT AND WSHFT TO THE NNW...THE UPSLOPE FLOW
OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BRING LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND LIFR CONDITIONS TO
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW OVERNIGHT. EXPECT -SHRA/-DZ AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY AT
KSAW. BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN...DAYTIME HEATING AND ARRIVAL OF
SOME DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR WILL LIKELY LEAD TO IMPROVEMENT AT
KIWD/KCMX...BUT KSAW SHOULD REMAIN IFR THRU AT LEAST MID AFTN WITH A
SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE DRIER AIR AND A MORE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE WIND
COMPONENT. KIWD/KCMX SHOULD BREAK OUT TO VFR DURING THE LATTER HALF
OF THE AFTN. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR SHOULD OCCUR AT KSAW IN THE
EVENING...BUT THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT MVFR CONDITIONS MAY
LINGER.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

FOR THE MOST PART...EXPECT LIGHT WINDS BELOW 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE
ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE NCENTRAL LAKE
LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE AFTERNOON. N WINDS UP TO 25 KTS WILL FOLLOW
THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT IN THAT AREA BEFORE DIMINISHING WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF HI PRES LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO PERSIST
ACROSS THE LAKE THROUGH TUE AS A RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS
OVER THE REGION. THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER LLVL AIR WL DISSIPATE ANY
LINGERING FOG BY WED MORNING.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC


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