Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 191133
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
633 AM EST Sun Feb 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 429 AM EST SUN FEB 19 2017

Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show flow becoming slightly
more northwesterly across the Upper Lakes as a ridge is amplifying
over central N America in response to a trof pushing across the
far western CONUS. 11-3.9 micron imagery shows that stratocu in
the wake of the shortwave that passed just n of the area yesterday
remains mostly n and ne of Lake Superior early this morning.
Across Upper MI, only sct to at times bkn high clouds are noted.
Temps are way above normal for mid Feb, ranging from isold mid 20s
in some of the traditional cold spots to as high as the lwr 40s.

Dry weather will continue thru the short term as upstream mid
level high pres ridge shifts e with axis extending n-s across
central Upper MI by 12z Mon. At the sfc, associated sfc high pres
ridge which currently extends from Manitoba the Upper Mississippi
Valley will drift across the area thru early this evening. The
onshore gradient wind off Lake Superior ahead of the ridge early
today and then light wind regime allowing lake breeze cooling
combined with the southern edge of a cooler air mass brushing the
area will lead to an overall cooler day compared to yesterday. Ci
and at times some high based ac clouds will also cut back on
sunshine a bit compared to yesterday`s full sun. Once again, NAM
is too aggressive with low-level moisture, a bias noted during
this warm spell. Not expecting any low clouds today. While the
interior w half should still see temps rise to 50F/lwr 50s this
aftn, expect low/mid 40s elsewhere, ranging down to the mid 30s to
40F lakeside.

Sfc high pres ridge shifts e of the area tonight as a trof moves
out over the western Plains. Min temps will again be well above
normal, only falling back to the mid 20s to lower 30s, more inline
with normal high temps at this time of year. However, downsloping
se wind over the far w should hold temps even higher, to the mid
or even upper 30s. Kept a mention of some patchy fog over portions
of the e half of the fcst area where winds will be lightest,
closer to departing high pres ridge, but with a fair amount of
high clouds, fog potential looks pretty low.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 341 AM EST SUN FEB 19 2017

Highs Mon will be in the 40s to low 50s. An upper trough and
associated SFC trough will pass through late Mon through Mon night,
bringing somewhere in the neighborhood of 0.30-0.75" of rain
(greatest potential for the higher amounts are over the south
central). Could also see some thunder, but chances are low enough to
keep that out of the forecast for now. The warmth will continue
through mid-week with highs in the mid 40s to mid 50s expected Tue
and Wed. Some uncertainty with the flood threat remains next week.
With the warmth and rain, do expect river levels to gradually rise
through next week, but not seeing any significant potential for
flooding right now. Greatest QPF is expected where the lightest snow
pack exists and overall snow pack liquid is below normal in all but
the WNW-NW snowbelts. Will have to continue monitoring flood
potential over the next few days.

Plenty of uncertainty with precip mid-week as models depict a
clipper shortwave moving through the region. Thermal fields support
most or all associated QPF as rain, with maybe some snow on the back
side.

Attention then turns to late week into the weekend with potential
for a strong storm system and trailing colder air supporting LES.
Not confident in any details at this point as models differ run to
run and model to model, but do generally show a similar idea.
Definitely lots of room for changes in track, timing, and strength
that could lead to significant changes to the forecast. Certainly
worth keeping an eye on, but will probably not have much more
confidence in details until around Thursday when the system moves E
of the CO Rockies.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 632 AM EST SUN FEB 19 2017

Expect VFR conditions to prevail thru this fcst period at
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW under an overall dry air mass. However, there are
minor concerns that MVFR cigs could develop for a time at KCMX
and/or KSAW this morning as shallow moisture behind a sfc trof may
lead to some lower cloud development. At this time, it looks very
unlikely. Then tonight, some fog or low clouds could develop at
KSAW as winds veer to a se upslope direction off Lake Michigan.
Potential looks very low at this time. Finally, tightening pres
gradient and resulting increasing winds above nocturnal inversion
will lead to LLWS at KIWD late tonight.

&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 429 AM EST SUN FEB 19 2017

A period of light winds will occur from w to e across Lake
Superior today thru this evening as a sfc high pres ridge drifts
across the area. Winds will then increase tonight into Mon as the
ridge builds while shifting e and a low pres trof approaches from
the w. Winds may increase to gale force for a time later Mon
aftn/evening over central and eastern Lake Superior. Winds should
then stay mostly 25kt or less Tue thru Thu. Stronger winds,
perhaps gales, are expected late week as a low pres system tracks
ne thru the Great Lakes region.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
  Gale Watch from Monday afternoon through late Monday night for
     LSZ264>267.

Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Rolfson
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...Rolfson
MARINE...Rolfson



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