Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 300005
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
805 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES WITH AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH...A TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES AND A RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS. THE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES MOVES SOUTHEAST TODAY AND THE RIDGE IS POISED TO BUILD INTO
THE AREA ON TUE.

GOING FORECAST HAS THINGS PRETTY WELL IN HAND. LOOKS LIKE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL LINGER NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND HUNG
ONTO DRIZZLE RATHER THAN SHOWERS AS RAIN BAND CONTINUES TO MOVE OUT.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT REALLY GO ANYWHERE TONIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE A
SLOW FALL WHICH WAS ALREADY COVERED IN THE FORECAST. DID HANG ONTO
CLOUDS LONGER TONIGHT AND ALSO FOR TUE AS SATELLITE SHOWS A LOT OF
CLOUDS TO STILL GO THROUGH TONIGHT AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING
DOWN TO 2C BEFORE WARMING LATE TONIGHT. WITH LAKE SUPERIOR
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM 7C TO 10C...THIS IS BORDERLINE FOR LAKE
ENHANCED PCPN...BUT ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS COVER AND SOME
UPSLOPE DRIZZLE POSSIBLE WITH BORDERLINE LAKE-850MB DELTA-T. WILL
ALSO HANG ONTO AREAS OF UPSLOPE FOG FOR TONIGHT AS WELL AND HAVE
THIS INTO TUE MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE THE BRIEF BREAK IN THE WET
WEATHER...WITH AN EXITING SFC RIDGE AND 500MB RIDGE BEING SQUEEZED
TO THE E OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THE SFC AND INITIAL 500MB TROUGH OVER S
CENTRAL CANADA AND THE N PLAINS AT 12Z MONDAY WILL SLOWLY EJECT N
ACROSS MANITOBA. THIS WILL BRING INCREASED WAA ON S FLOW...AND THE
NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE W THIRD OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. 850MB TEMPS OF 10-12C SHOULD HELP SFC TEMPS RISE INTO THE
LOW TO MID 60S /WARMEST ALONG THE FAVORED DOWNSLOPE REGIONS ALONG
LAKE SUPERIOR/.

LOOK FOR THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...TO SLIDE ACROSS UPPER MI WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
CAPE VALUES WERE MINIMAL...GENERALLY AROUND 100J/KG...SO KEPT ANY
LIGHTNING POTENTIAL TO SLIGHT CHANCE OR NOTHING.

THE SPECIFICS FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ARE STILL IN QUESTION. THE
GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF ARE ALL BRINGING THE LARGE 500MB TROUGH...THAT
EXTENDS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL CANADA DOWN THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
ON THURSDAY...OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION FROM FRIDAY ON. THE
HANDLING OF THE MAIN LOW SINKING IN FROM N SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA
STILL VARIES SIGNIFICANTLY. THE 29/12Z ECMWF DIVES THE LOW OVER FAR
W LAKE SUPERIOR BY 18Z FRIDAY...WHILE THE GFS AND CANADIAN STILL
HAVE IT ACROSS N MANITOBA. CONTINUED TO RUN WITH A CONSENSUS OR
BLENDED SOLUTION FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD.

A BROAD 500MB TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN
CANADA THROUGH MUCH OF THE E U.S. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. AS A RESULT...UNSETTLED COOL WEATHER WILL REMAIN...BUT WITH
THE BULK OF MOISTURE EXITING E SATURDAY NIGHT. WE WILL NOT GET BACK
INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S ANYTIME SOON. THE COOLEST AIR LOOKS
TO BE OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY...RANGING FROM
-4 TO +2C AT 850MB. WITH W TO NW FLOW LINGERING FOR MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD...ADDITIONAL CLOUDS IF NOT SHOWERS...WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 804 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

CONSIDERABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH THIS EVENING
WITH CIGS NEAR THE IFR/MVFR THRESHOLD. OVERNIGHT...SOME DRYING WILL
PUSH INTO UPPER MI WITH CIGS CLIMBING ABOVE 2K FT BY TUE MORNING.
DAYTIME MIXING AND ADDITIONAL DRY ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN ENOUGH
CLEARING FOR VFR CONDITIONS AT CMX TUE MORNING...AT IWD BY AFTERNOON
AND LATE TUE AT SAW WHERE MORE PERSISTENT UPSLOPE FLOW PREVAILS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 247 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

IN THE WAKE OF A SHARP COLD FRONT...N TO NE WINDS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH FROM BELOW 20KT TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER NRN ONTARIO
MOVES CLOSER. WINDS UNDER 20KT WILL BE THE RULE TUE THRU THU NIGHT.
FRI INTO SAT...COLDER AIR SWEEPING INTO THE UPPER LAKES BEHIND A
COLD FRONT AND LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO STRENGTHENING NW WINDS
AND POTENTIALLY GALES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...07






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