Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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192
FXUS63 KMQT 132020
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
320 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 456 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY...

IN THE LARGE SCALE...DEEP TROUGHING REMAINS OVER EASTERN CANADA AND
THE GREAT LAKES. UPPER LOW WITH H85 TEMPS AS LOW AS -39C AT MOOSINEE
ONTARIO LAST EVENING PROVIDING THE CENTER OF TROUGH DRIFTS ACROSS
QUEBEC TODAY WHICH PLACES SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE ACROSS UPPER GREAT
LAKES TODAY INTO TONIGHT. AT THE SFC...LAKE INDUCED TROUGHING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES GRADUALLY IS REPLACED BY SFC RIDGE ATTM
FM SCNTRL CANADA TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ARRIVAL OF RIDGE WILL LEAD
TO DRYING BENEATH AN ALREADY LOWERING INVERSION AND ULTIMATELY WILL
RESULT IN WINDS BACKING TO SSW-S LEADING TO END OF LINGERING LAKE
EFFECT OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR. UNTIL THEN THOUGH...LAKE EFFECT
WILL CONTINUE WITH STEADY NW FLOW AND INVERIONS RUNNING FM 3-5KFT
WEST TO OVER 5KFT OVER EASTERN SUPERIOR AND DOWNSTREAM OVER UPR
MICHIGAN. H85 TEMPS START OUT THE DAY AROUND -25C WEST TO -28C
EAST...THEN RISE BY LATE TODAY TO -20C WEST AND -25C EAST. AS TEMPS
WITHIN LAKE EFFECT MOIST LAYER REMAIN LOWER THAN -20C...DO NOT
EXPECT SLR/S TO BE MORE THAN 15:1 MOST AREAS TODAY SO SNOW AMOUNTS
SHOULD STAY ON THE LOWER SIDE...PERHAPS 2-4 INCHES FOR SNOW BELTS OF
EASTERN CWA. WINDS IN MIXED LAYER STILL 20-30 MPH INTO AFTN AND THIS
ALONG WITH SMALLER SNOW FLAKES WILL LEAD TO POOR VSBY IN THE SNOW
SHOWERS.

HAVE DROPPED WARNINGS FOR MARQUETTE AND ALGER COUNTY AS WEATHER WEB
CAMS/ROAD WEATHER VSBY SENSORS AND LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTS INDICATED
CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED SINCE FRI. WILL ROLL WITH LAKE EFFECT ADVY
FOR THESE AREAS AND EXTEND LAKE EFFECT ADVY FOR DELTA AND SOUTHERN
SCHOOLCRAFT. OUT WEST...DRY AIR BLO INVERSION TAKING TOLL ON LAKE
EFFECT BUT STILL ISOLD HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS ATTM. SO...WILL LET ADVY
RUN TIL 12Z. BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND LAW ENFORCEMENT
REPORTS...PRIMARY AREA STILL SEEING BLSN/POOR VSBY IS OVER KEWEENAW
COUNTY WHERE WINDS AT P59 WILL GUST TO 30 MPH TIL AROUND DAYBREAK
THEN DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. WIND CHILL ADVY ALONG WI BORDER GOES
UNTIL 15Z AND AFTER COORD WITH WFO GRB AND WFO DLH...WILL LET THAT
CONTINUE THOUGH DUE TO LIGHTER WINDS IT REMAINS MARGINAL ATTM.

INTO TONIGHT...LAKE EFFECT DIMINISHES WITH ARRIVAL OF SFC RIDGE. ONE
THING TO WATCH IS WHATEVER LAKE EFFECT IS ONGOING THIS EVENING IN
CONVERGENCE AREA OVER ALGER/NORTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES COULD
BECOME MUCH MORE FLUFFY BEFORE IT ENDS. INVERSIONS THIS EVENING
WILL BE AROUND 3KFT...SO THAT WILL LIMIT INTENSITY...BUT IF AN AREA
OF SNOW SHOWERS PERSISTS MAY SEE QUICK INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMS.
THANKFULLY WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SO BLSN SHOULD NOT BE ISSUE AT ALL.
NO REASON TO ALTER GOING TEMP FORECAST TONIGHT AS WHERE LAKE CLOUDS
CLEAR OUT THIS EVENING TEMPS SHOULD PLUMMET. HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE
LATE BUT THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF TIME BENEATH THE RIDGE TO ALLOW
TEMPS AT TYPICAL COLD SPOTS TO END UP IN THE TEENS BLO ZERO. WITH
DRAINAGE FLOW OUT OF ONTARIO BECOMING MORE OF A FACTOR...LOWERED
MINS OVER FAR EASTERN CWA TO 10-15 BLO ZERO.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

LONG TERM STARTS 00Z MON WITH A SHORTWAVE NEAR SRN LAKE MICHIGAN
THAT WILL CROSS LAKE HURON BY 12Z MON AND THEN MOVE INTO
QUEBEC...AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OVER CENTRAL MN THAT WILL MOVE OVER
OR JUST S OF THE CWA LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON AFTERNOON...AND YET
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL FOLLOW THE SECOND BY ABOUT 12 HOURS. NOT
REALLY LOOKING FOR A LOT OF SYNOPTIC QPF...BUT THE FORCING/MOISTURE
WILL ENHANCE LES OFF LAKE MICHIGAN IN THE SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
ACCOMPANYING SFC TROUGH. SLY WIND LAKE EFFECT IS ALWAYS TRICKY...BUT
LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD START UP AROUND 00Z MON AND REACH A PEAK
BETWEEN 06Z AND 18Z MON WHILE SHIFTING E AND ENDING BEFORE 00Z TUE.
AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS LIKE THE MOST SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS
MENOMINEE...DELTA...AND SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES...AND POSSIBLY INTO
COUNTIES JUST N OF THOSE. THINK WITH S WINDS...THINK MENOMINEE
COUNTY SEEING MUCH LES IS NOT AS LIKELY. OVERALL...ONLY EXPECTING 2
TO MAYBE 3 INCHES IN THESE AREAS. ELSEWHERE...AROUND AN INCH OR LESS.

MAY SEE SOME LIGHT LES OVER W WIND SNOWBELTS MON NIGHT INTO TUE
MORNING AS 850MB TEMPS WILL BE MARGINAL BUT ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
WILL PROVIDE SOME ENHANCEMENT. NOT LOOKING AT SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS.

SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH TUE AHEAD OF AN UPPER WAVE. THIS TURNS
WINDS OUT OF THE NW-NNW BY TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND DROPS 850MB
TEMPS TO AROUND-15Z BY 00Z WED AND -19C BY 12Z WED. A SFC RIDGE
MOVES THROUGH BY 00Z THU...ENDING MOST OR ALL LES. NOT EXPECTING
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS GIVEN CHANGING WIND DIRECTIONS AND
QUICK ENTRANCE OF THE RIDGE.

COULD SEE A MORE POTENT SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...RAIN...AND FREEZING RAIN. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
EVEN IN THE GENERAL STRENGTH/TRACK OF THE SYSTEM IS LOW AS MODELS
VARY FROM RUN TO RUN AND DISAGREE MODEL TO MODEL. CERTAINLY LOOKS
LIKE A WARMUP IS IN STORE FOR AT LEAST THU NIGHT AND FRI...BUT CAN
NOT SAY MUCH ELSE WITH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY WENT WITH A WINTRY MIX OF
PRECIP IN THE FORECAST...WITH CONSENSUS POPS FIELDS OTHERWISE.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

WITH WINDS BACKING AS HIGH PRES MOVES E...CROSSING UPPER MI
TONIGHT...LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING KCMX WILL END
TONIGHT. UNTIL THEN...EXPECT IFR VIS TO PREVAIL THIS AFTN.
HOWEVER...AS IS TYPICAL FOR LAKE EFFECT...CONDITIONS WILL BE QUITE
VARIABLE AT TIMES...RANGING FROM BRIEF LIFR TO BRIEF MVFR. EXPECT
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR AT KCMX THIS EVENING...THEN VFR OVERNIGHT. AT
KIWD...LAST OF THE STRATOCU/MVFR CIGS OFF THE LAKE SHOULD EXIT
WITHIN THE NEXT HR OR SO...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU
THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PERIOD. AT KSAW...THERE MAY BE OCNL MVFR
CIGS THIS AFTN. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE THRU THE
FCST PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

EXPECT N WINDS UP TO 25-30 KTS...WITH A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35
KTS OVER MAINLY THE E HALF THIS MORNING...TO DIMINISH W-E TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS A HI PRES RIDGE MOVES THRU THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
ONGOING HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL ALSO DIMINISH AS THE WAVES SUBSIDE.
ONCE THIS HIGH DRIFTS TO THE E...EXPECT AN INCREASING S WIND THAT
WILL REACH UP TO 25-30 KTS ON SUN INTO MON UNDER THE TIGHTENING PRES
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HI AND AN APPROACHING LO PRES TROF IN
THE PLAINS. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER ON MON...ANOTHER ROUND
OF STRONG NNW WINDS UP TO 30 KTS WILL DEVELOP ON TUE/TUE NIGHT
FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THERE COULD
BE SOME MARGINAL GALE FORCE GUSTS. LIGHTER WINDS WILL RETURN ON WED
WITH ANOTHER HI PRES RIDGE.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ006-
     007-085.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     LSZ265>267.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC



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