Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KMQT 310520
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
120 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

DRY WEATHER ANTICIPATED TROUGH MONDAY. SMOKE ALOFT CONTINUES TO KEEP
US FROM HAVING A PERFECTLY CLEAR SKY. FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS WAS
THE THEME FOR THE MORNING HOURS...WHICH CONTINUES TO QUICKLY
DISSIPATE OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR AND PORTIONS OF N LAKE MI/BAY OF
GREEN BAY.

ALTHOUGH FOG/LOW STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT...EXPECT
THE IMPACTS TO BE LESS AS WINDS AT MOST PLACES /ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES/ REMAIN AROUND 3-6KTS.

DIURNAL WINDS WILL AGAIN BE THE RULE...WITH THE DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS
AGAIN HAVING THE BEST CHANCE OF AFTERNOON GUSTS OF 15-20KTS
/STRONGEST NEAR IWD/. THE APEX OF THE BROAD 500MB RIDGE WILL BE
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD MONDAY...WITH 850MB TEMPS OF 20-22C. THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS LOOK TO BE THE WARMEST...WITH ALL BUT FROM ESC E
ALONG LAKE MI GETTING INTO THE 80S. A FEW 90 DEGREE READINGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE BARAGA PLAINS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH SAW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 154 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE UPPER RIDGE THAT MOVES OVER SUN NIGHT INTO MON WILL SHIFT E MON
NIGHT BEFORE RE-ESTABLISHING AND BECOMING QUITE AMPLIFIED OVER THE
AREA THU INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND. SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING UP THE BACK
SIDE OF THE RIDGE THROUGH MID WEEK AND ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
LATE IN THE WEEK MAY BRING SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM TUE ON...BUT PREDICTABILITY IS QUITE LOW AT THIS
TIME. SEEMINGLY GREATER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIST
SAT NIGHT/SUN AS A TROUGH PASSES THROUGH...BUT MODEL DIFFERENCES
WITH THIS FEATURE CONTINUE TO BRING CONFIDENCE DOWN. A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
PRECIP LIKELY ALONG THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THAT TIME FRAME FOR HEAVY RAIN/SEVERE POTENTIAL.

TEMPERATURES ARE THE MORE SIGNIFICANT PART OF THE STORY THIS WEEK AS
A WARM AIRMASS (850MB TEMPS 18-22C) WILL BE OVERHEAD THROUGH THE
ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT HIGHS TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 80S TO
MAYBE AROUND 90...WHICH WILL BE ROUGHLY 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 119 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

A THIN LAYER OF SMOKE ALOFT IS TOO HIGH TO BE INCLUDED IN THE
TAFS...OTHERWISE VFR CEILINGS AND VIS SHOULD CONTINUE. THERE IS
AGAIN A SMALL CHANCE OF MAINLY MVFR VIS WITH FOG DEVELOPING AT IWD
AND MORE LIKELY SAW NEAR DAYBREAK MONDAY. ALTHROUGH THERE SHOULD BE
A LITTLE MORE WIND TO CONTEND WITH TONIGHT...FOG WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 247 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER FAR SE LAKE SUPERIOR AND LOWER MI THROUGH
FRIDAY...EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. MEANWHILE...LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND S MANITOBA TONIGHT WILL SHIFT ACROSS
HUDSON BAY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A
WEAKENING TROUGH SHIFTING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY. FOLLOWING
THE TROUGH...THE RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK ACROSS ALL OF LAKE
SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY. LOOK FOR A BROAD LOW ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...KF


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.