Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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148
FXUS63 KMQT 130015
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
715 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

THE UPPER LOW OVER JAMES BAY WILL SHIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND BY LATE
SAT...WHICH WILL SHIFT THE 850MB THERMAL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED -30C
TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 850MB
TEMPS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SAT...REACHING
-24C TO -18C (COLDEST E) BY 00Z SUN. THE SFC TROUGH IS NOW JUST S OF
THE U.P. WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY LES IN NW FLOW BEHIND THAT TROUGH.
HAVE SEEN WHITE OUT CONDITIONS ALONG M-28 BETWEEN HARVEY AND
MUNISING TODAY AS WINDS GUSTED TO 45 MPH ALONG THE SHORELINE...WHICH
RESULTED IN THE CLOSURE OF THE HIGHWAY (ON THAT POINT...THE WSW
ISSUED YESTERDAY POINTED TO THAT EXACT POSSIBILITY). OTHER AREAS
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR HAVE SEEN OCCASIONAL NEAR WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS.
ENDED UP ISSUING A LES ADVISORY FOR GOGEBIC COUNTY INTO THIS EVENING
TO COVER LOW VISIBILITIES PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY WINDS GUSTING TO 35
MPH IN SPOTS.

AS A SFC RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE W THROUGH SAT...A LAKE TROUGH WILL
HANG BACK OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THE OVERALL TREND WILL BE LIGHTER
WINDS...REDUCED BLOWING SNOW...AND VERY GRADUALLY DIMINISHING LES
(MORE SO OVER THE W THAN E DUE TO THE RIDGE MOVING IN).

LOOKING AT THE ADDITIONAL SNOW FOR TONIGHT AND SAT (00Z SAT TO 00Z
SUN)...HAVE THE MOST SNOW OVER FAR ERN MARQUETTE COUNTY THROUGH NRN
SCHOOLCRAFT AND LUCE COUNTIES...ALONG WITH NERN DELTA AND THE REST
OF WRN SCHOOLCRAFT. IN THIS AREA...HAVE AN ADDITIONAL 6-9
INCHES...WITH SOME POCKETS OF LOWER AMOUNTS BETWEEN WHERE THE
STRONGER BANDS WILL SET UP. NEXT HIGHEST SNOWFALL SPOT IS OVER
PORTIONS OF ONTONAGON AND HOUGHTON COUNTIES...WHERE 3-5 INCHES IS
FORECAST. ELSEWHERE...LESS THAN 3 INCHES NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR...NOTHING WELL INLAND.

ANOTHER ISSUE IS COLD TEMPS/WIND CHILLS...WHICH ARE ALREADY LESS
THAN -20F OVER ROUGHLY THE W HALF. WIND CHILLS DOWN TO

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

CURRENT WRN N AMERICA RIDGE AND ERN N AMERICA TROF WILL DEAMPLIFY
OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. AS A RESULT...AFTER THE ONGOING SURGE OF
BITTER ARCTIC AIR (WHICH WAS FCST BY MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE QUITE
WELL MORE THAN 1 WEEK AGO)...MODERATION WILL OCCUR THRU NEXT
WEEK...BUT THE WARMING WILL BE INTERUPTED TUE/WED AS ONE LAST
SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO THE ERN TROF BRINGS A SHOT OF COLDER AIR INTO
THE UPPER LAKES. NOTABLE WARMING GETTING UNDERWAY DURING THE LAST
HALF OF THE WEEK WILL PUSH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS LIKELY
GOING WELL INTO THE 30S. THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLES POINT TO SOME
REAMPLIFICATION OF THE WRN RIDGE BEYOND 10 DAYS FOR THE LATE FEB
PERIOD...BUT DOWNSTREAM TROF IS NOT ESPECIALLY DEEP...AND WOULD
PROBABLY RESULT IN AN OVERALL TEMP REGIME MOSTLY AROUND NORMAL. THE
PHASE OF A RESTRENGTHENING MJO FAVORS WARMTH FOR THE UPPER LAKES...
SO IT`S UNLIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE ANYTHING MORE THAN BRIEF COOL
DOWNS THRU LATE FEB...RESULTING IN TEMPS OVERALL BEING NORMAL TO
ABOVE NORMAL. IF THE MJO REMAINS ACTIVE AND PROPAGATING...IT WOULD
FAVOR A COLDER PERIOD AGAIN AT SOME POINT DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
MAR. AS FOR PCPN...LES WILL BE THE MAIN PCPN FOCUS THRU THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK...THOUGH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES PRECEDING THE ONE
BRINGING THE COLDER AIR TUE/WED WILL BRING SOME -SN TO THE AREA. THE
WARMER WEATHER LATE NEXT WEEK WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN MIXED PCPN
ISSUES.

BEGINNING SAT NIGHT...LINGERING LIGHT LES OVER THE E WILL END AS SFC
HIGH PRES RIDGE PASSES ACROSS THE FCST AREA...REACHING THE W EARLY
IN THE EVENING AND THE E DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE OVERNIGHT.
LOSS OF LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS WITH BACKING WINDS WILL BE REPLACED BY
SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS IN WAA PATTERN AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. THAT SAID...ALL AREAS WILL SEE AT
LEAST A SHORT PERIOD OF VERY GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. IT
APPEARS THE CNTRL FCST AREA WILL HAVE THE LONGEST PERIOD OF
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING DUE TO EARLIER CLEARING AND LONGER
PERIOD OF LIGHT/CALM WIND. FAVORED THE LOWEST GUIDANCE WITH THE
TRADITIONAL COLDEST SPOTS FALLING TOWARD -20F. MOST IF NOT ALL
LOCATIONS WILL FALL BLO 0F.

SUN/SUN NIGHT...AFORMENTIONED SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS
SAT NIGHT IS FCST TO TRACK ESE. AS A RESULT...BEST DEEP LAYER
FORCING AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL PASS S OF THE FCST AREA. THAT
SAID...WEAKER EXTENSION OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT FARTHER N AND ARRIVAL
OF MID LEVEL TROF SUN NIGHT SHOULD LEAD TO A LITTLE -SN/LOW POPS.
DELAYED TIMING OF THESE LOW POPS TO MAINLY SUN NIGHT PER 12Z MODEL
TRENDS. BETTER CHC OF SNOW WILL BE OVER THE E HALF OF THE FCST AREA
AS S TO SE WINDS OFF LAKE MI ALLOW FOR LES DUE TO 850MB TEMPS
STARTING AT -18C 12Z SUN AND RISING TO AROUND -13C BY 12Z MON. THERE
ARE NO CONSISTENT SIGNALS FOR ANY ENHANCED CONVERGENCE ZONES OFF THE
LAKE RIGHT NOW...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY HEADLINE WORTHY SNOW
AMOUNTS...BUT IT WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR. MAY SEE 2-3 INCH SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE SUN-SUN NIGHT PERIOD IN MENOMINEE/DELTA AND
PORTIONS OF SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY.

MON...LES OFF LAKE MI WILL DIMINISH AS AIR MASS CONTINUES TO WARM.
IN ADDITION...WITH SHORTWAVE TROF SHIFTING E...WHATEVER -SN IS
AROUND THE AREA TO START THE DAY SHOULD ALSO DIMINISH.

MON NIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT...12Z GFS/ECMWF HAVE TENDED TO SLOW THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE/COLD SHOT DIVING SE INTO THE ERN TROF. THE GFS HAS
ALSO TRENDED STRONGER/FARTHER NE WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM
THE DAKOTAS TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. EVEN IF THE GFS IS
CORRECT...TRACK OF WAVE WOULD TAKE ASSOCIATED SNOW JUST S OF THE
AREA. OTHERWISE...PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT TUE MORNING MAY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY -SHSN...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. NW FLOW LES
WILL THEN TAKE OVER TUE/TUE NIGHT AS 850MB TEMPS FALL BACK TOWARD
-20C. INCOMING DRY AIR MASS WITH INVERSIONS OF ROUGHLY 4-5KFT WILL
LIKELY KEEP THIS LES EVENT FROM REQUIRING A HEADLINE...THOUGH BLSN
WILL BE A FACTOR TO CONSIDER WITH MIXED LAYER WINDS UP TO 30KT.

LINGERING LES WILL THEN DIMINISH/END WED/WED EVENING AS WINDS BACK
WITH PASSAGE OF SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE AND WAA BEGINS. WARMING THEN
TAKES OFF FOR THU/FRI AS PACIFIC AIR WASHES EASTWARD UNDER A BRIEF
TRANSITION TO MORE ZONALLY ORIENTED FLOW. WILL LIKELY ADD 10 DEGREES
TO HIGH TEMPS FOR THU COMPARED TO WED...AND THEN ANOTHER 10 DEGREES
MORE ON FRI...WHICH WILL PUT FRI MAX TEMPS AT LEAST INTO THE MID
30S. SHORTWAVE TROF SHIFTING EASTWARD IN THE ZONAL FLOW WILL LIKELY
BRING MIXED PCPN ISSUES IN THE LATER THU/FRI TIME FRAME. UTILIZED
ECMWF/GFS MAX TEMP ALOFT TO CONSTRUCT PTYPES WHICH RESULTS IN SNOW
TRANSITIONING TO SNOW/-FZRA TO PROBABLY JUST RAIN BY FRI AFTN.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 701 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

GUSTY NW WINDS AND FINE SNOWFLAKES WILL CONTINUE LIFR VSBYS AT KCMX
AND MVFR TO IFR VSBYS AT KIWD THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. AS WINDS
SLOWLY BACK AND DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY THERE WILL BE
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO IFR AND MVFR CONDIITONS AT KCMX AND TO VFR
CONDITIONS AT KIWD. LESS FAVORABLE NW WIND DIRECTION AT KSAW WILL
RESULT IN VFR TO OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND THEN VFR
CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY AS WINDS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND BACK MORE WNW
LATE SAT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

EXPECT NW VEERING N GALES TO 35-40 KTS UNDER TIGHT PRES GRADIENT
BETWEEN LO PRES MOVING TOWARD NEW ENGLAND AND SPRAWLING ARCTIC HI
PRES BUILDING FROM SCENTRAL CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO
PERSIST OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE INTO SAT...WHEN THE PRES
GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN AS THE HI PRES BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN LAKES.
SINCE THIS STRONG NNW FLOW WILL ADVECT BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO
THE UPPER LAKES...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL ALSO BE THE RULE INTO
SAT OVER ALL BUT THE FAR W PORTION OF LAKE SUP. AFTER A PERIOD OF
LIGHTER WINDS ON SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...A STRONG S WIND UP TO 25-30
KTS WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST INTO MON UNDER THE TIGHTENING GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HI PRES AND ANOTHER LO PRES TROF APPROACHING
FROM THE NW. MORE N GALES MAY OCCUR OVER AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE
LAKE ON TUE FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS TROF.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ001>004-
     007-013-014-084-085.

  WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR MIZ009>012.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ009.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ005-006.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
     LSZ265>267.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LSZ264>266.

  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LSZ264.

  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LSZ263.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...TITUS



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